Colin Allred's Chances of Winning Texas Senate Election: Polls
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Colin Allred has announced a new Senate run in Texas after losing to Senator Ted Cruz in 2024.
The former member of Congress announced his run on July 1, posting a video to X (formerly Twitter) where he said: "Washington is broken and the system is rigged – and Texas families are paying the price. Today I'm announcing I'm running for the U.S. Senate because Texans deserve someone who will fight for them."
Washington is broken and the system is rigged – and Texas families are paying the price.
Today I'm announcing I'm running for the U.S. Senate because Texans deserve someone who will fight for them.
From working to lower costs to taking on corruption, I'm ready to be the fighter… pic.twitter.com/geXv6DjL8g — Colin Allred (@ColinAllredTX) July 1, 2025
Although no polling has been released for his official 2026 run, a poll taken by the Houston Chronicle in April found that Allred beat potential GOP nominee Attorney General Ken Paxton 52 percent to 37 percent, despite Paxton leading the GOP primary among Republican voters.
In response to a request for comment on his polling chances, Paxton's team sent Newsweek a link to his X (formerly Twitter) post, which says: "Welcome to the race, Colin! Texans have already rejected your liberal values once...now it's time for Texas voters to say no to your vision and your values one more time."
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak told Newsweek: "Crooked Ken is a fraud and walking talking ethics disaster."
Colin Allred speaks during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Dallas, Texas.
Colin Allred speaks during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Dallas, Texas.
Tony Gutierrez/AP Photo
Why It Matters
Allred is the first of likely many Democratic candidates to announce their run for the 2026 primary in the Texas Senate race. Despite losing to Cruz eight months ago, the poll taken by the Houston Chronicle shows he has a higher chance of winning this race if Paxton is able to upset the GOP primary.
The 2026 midterm election is expected to be more favorable to the Democratic Party than the 2024 election was, giving Allred a better chance of winning a Texas Senate seat.
What To Know
Allred is running for Senator John Cornyn's Senate seat. Cornyn's team has said he is committed to running a "vigorous reelection campaign," as he is facing a significant primary challenge from Paxton.
A poll taken by a Paxton PAC in June found that the attorney general is leading the Senator by 19 points among Republican primary voters.
The Pulse Research poll found the attorney general to have higher name recognition than Cornyn among the 806 voters surveyed, and had a net favorable rating of 70 percent.
The 62-year-old Paxton's brand of politics appeals to Trump voters, whereas Cornyn, who is 73, appeals to Reagan-era Republicans. Despite his Trump-affiliated voters, the president has yet to make an endorsement in the race.
However, despite Paxton's significant polling lead in the GOP primary, his popularity fades when compared to Allred in the general, per the Houston Chronicle's polling of 1,000 voters.
Paxton is running an 'America First' campaign and has been attacking Cornyn's record on the border wall.
John Cornyn without a primary: "The border wall is naive."
John Cornyn 20 points down in a primary: "build the border wall" https://t.co/SmKTGlbLoj — Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) June 30, 2025
Allred's first campaign video focuses on the cost of living, with the former NFL player saying: "You shouldn't have to have a son in the NFL to own a home. Everything's backwards. Folks who play by the rules and keep the faith just can't seem to get ahead. But the folks who cut corners and cut deals? Well, they're doing just fine."
He also points to how he never took corporate PAC money while serving for six years in Congress.
Beto O'Rourke, who lost his Senate race to Ted Cruz by 3 points, told the Dallas Morning News that Paxton as a candidate would be a "gift" to the Democratic nominee.
A Democrat winning Cornyn's seat would be a major upset in a state won by nearly 14 points by President Donald Trump, and won by 8 points in Cruz's race against Allred in 2024.
Left: Senator John Cornyn talk with reporters in Dirksen building on Wednesday, June 18, 2025. Right: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at a news conference in Dallas on June 22, 2017.
Left: Senator John Cornyn talk with reporters in Dirksen building on Wednesday, June 18, 2025. Right: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at a news conference in Dallas on June 22, 2017.
Left: Tom Williams, Right: Tony Gutierrez, File/Left: CQ Roll Call via AP Images, Right: AP Photo
What People Are Saying
Colin Allred in his race announcement video: "Texans are working harder than ever, not getting as much time with their kids, missing those special moments, all to be able to afford less. And the people that we elected to help? Politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are too corrupt to care about us, and too weak to fight for us. I know Washington's broken. The system is rigged. But it doesn't have to be this way...Real change might feel impossible, but I'm not giving up."
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak told Newsweek: "John Cornyn has voted with Trump 99 percent and is the only candidate conservatives can trust to beat progressive Colin Allred."
What Happens Next
The Texas primary will be held on March 3, 2026. Many more Democrats are expected to join the race before then.
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