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The South African
3 hours ago
- The South African
Over 500 000 white South Africans have emigrated in 20 years
The Mid-Year Population Estimates report for 2025 shows that more than 555 000 white South Africans have emigrated over the past two decades, according to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). The report, which factors in net international migration by population group, shows a steady decline in the white population due to emigration between 2001 and 2026. Between 2001 and 2006, South Africa lost 99 574 white citizens. This number rose to 106 787 between 2006 and 2011, then to 111 346 between 2011 and 2016. White South African emigration decreased slightly to 90,957 between 2016 and 2021. Stats SA expects it to rise to 94 898 between 2021 and 2026. In contrast, Stats SA recorded net gains in international migration for black African, coloured, and Indian/Asian South Africans. For example, Stats SA estimates that 903 697 black African migrants will have entered the country between 2021 and 2026. Stats SA also highlighted a demographic shift in the age structure of the white population. The largest proportion of white South Africans now falls between the ages of 40 and 64, with the highest concentration in the 50–59 bracket. This trend suggests an ageing population that may be less likely to emigrate due to established lifestyles or fewer employment opportunities abroad. The smallest white age group is 0–9, highlighting low birth rates and a shrinking young population. Despite the emigration of white South Africans, international migration into the country continues to rise. Between 2021 and 2026, Gauteng is projected to receive 1.42 million migrants, followed by the Western Cape with 500 347. Stats SA reported that migratory trends have rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels and will likely continue growing. These figures highlight South Africa's ongoing demographic transformation, influenced by ageing, fertility patterns, and migration flows both into and out of the country. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
Daily Maverick
2 days ago
- Daily Maverick
SA praised for achieving second G20 ministerial declaration on SDGs
The Skukuza declaration noted that a host of global challenges and crises – including the economic slowdown, aid cutbacks and trade protectionism – had significantly hindered progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. South Africa has been commended for – largely – achieving a second G20 declaration last week to intensify measures to try to reach the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, including by reducing illicit financial flows (IFFs), especially from Africa. The G20 Skukuza Development Ministerial Declaration from the meeting, which ended in the Kruger National Park on Friday, 25 July 2025, included two 'calls to action' – one for national and international measures to improve social protection, especially for low-income countries, and another to curb illicit financial flows. The declaration stressed the need to set floors (minimal levels) for universal and national social protection systems, which should primarily be financed through domestic resources, supported where necessary by international cooperation as well as non-government sources. The declaration also called for stepping up domestic resource mobilisation, including by combating illicit financial flows – particularly from Africa – especially the outflow of taxes from multinational companies to tax havens. 'Big achievement' Norwegian Minister of International Development Åsmund Grøver Aukrust, who attended the Skukuza meeting, said it was a big achievement to have secured a second ministerial declaration – just a week after the G20 finance ministers' declaration – 'when we're living in a world with very clear attacks on multilateralism'. 'So I would really like to honour the South African G20 presidency for bringing countries together and showing that multilateralism is still functioning and it's still possible to get agreements among very different countries,' he told Daily Maverick. This was a special achievement at a time of 'lack of trust among countries and brutal wars on all continents'. Norway is not a G20 member, but President Cyril Ramaphosa has invited it to participate in all the meetings of South Africa's G20 presidency this year. French support France is a member of the G20, and Thani Mohamed Soilihi, the country's Deputy Minister for Francophonie and International Partnerships, who is responsible for international development assistance, attended the Skukuza meeting. He said France fully supported South Africa's G20 priorities on development, including greater social protection; fighting illicit financial flows to mobilise more domestic resources to finance development; and how to protect global financial goods. He stressed the need for the rest of the global community to step up its efforts to address health issues, especially after the withdrawal of the US from international development assistance, mainly by shutting down its US Agency for International Development (USAid). Soilihi said it had been calculated that the shutdown would cost 14 million lives by 2030. Soilihi noted that the G20 development ministerial gathering had been a perfect place to talk about development issues because it included countries providing development assistance as well as the ministers responsible for development at home. He also convened a side meeting of several ministers of France's Paris Pact for People and the Planet ('4P'), which seeks innovative solutions to development problems. So far, 73 countries are members. US absent The US attended the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Zimbali near Durban on 18 July and thereby adopted its declaration, but did not attend last week's development ministerial. Norway's G20 sherpa, Henrik Harboe, agreed that the absence of the US would affect the impact of the declaration, but added 'that's just a reflection of where we are in the world, that the US did not participate in multilateral agreements this year.' He said it was nonetheless a great achievement that those who attended had agreed to the declaration. He noted, however, that Argentina had insisted on adding a footnote to the declaration, reserving its position 'on certain elements', but nonetheless not blocking its adoption. The chairperson's statement from the meeting included a declaration from Argentina reserving its position on 'all references to the 2030 Agenda' (which set the SDGs). Argentina added that it believed that addressing illicit financial flows lay beyond the scope of the G20 development working group and was better addressed in other G20 mechanisms. SDG challenges and crises The Skukuza declaration nonetheless noted that a host of global challenges and crises – including the economic slowdown, rising debt vulnerability, barriers to gender equality, aid cutbacks, domestic resource gaps, global supply chain disruptions and trade protectionism – had significantly hindered progress toward achieving the SDGs. 'Currently only 35% show adequate progress with 18% being on track and 17% making moderate progress,' it said, adding that financing the SDGs would now require 'a quantum jump from billions to trillions of dollars'. The ministers adopted a call to action towards 'inclusive, resilient, and sustainable development through Universal Social Protection Systems with special priority on Social Protection Floors'. These nationally defined social protection systems and floors should include access to health services and safe drinking water, sanitation and hygiene; basic income security; nutrition and education for children; basic income security for those unable to earn sufficient income; and for the elderly. The declaration also called for stepping up Domestic Resource Mobilisation – raising development at home – by combating illicit financial flows ; implementing effective tax, customs and excise systems; and increasing national savings, trade and investment. 'Efforts to strengthen domestic resource mobilisation continue to be severely undermined by IFFs, base erosion and profit shifting and harmful tax competition, which erode the revenue bases and deprive governments of vital resources for sustainable development, particularly in the context of declining Official Development Assistance,' the declaration said. Call to deliver The ministers called on developed countries to deliver fully on their aid commitments. The Call to Action on illicit financial flows is a set of 10 voluntary and non-binding high-level principles for combating them, including addressing tax avoidance, tax evasion and tax crimes and tackling illicit financial flows; and promoting international cooperation for the recovery of stolen assets. The ministers also agreed that a road map for implementing these measures should be drafted, to be presented to the 2027 G20 presidency for further consideration. The ministers failed to agree on and so did not adopt a call to action on the third main deliverable, which South Africa had hoped for from the development ministerial, to establish an Ubuntu Commission of experts to decide how to protect and strengthen Global Public Goods. Global Public Goods are those which benefit all citizens of the world, says the IMF. They can include a stable climate, scientific knowledge, and disease control. Asked if the consensus on a declaration – especially on illicit financial flows – had been achieved at the cost of avoiding concrete agreements, Norway's Aukrust noted that there was no clear definition of illicit financial flows which everyone agreed on, and that complicated efforts to address them – as did the fact that a 'lot of creative tax planning is going on in the world' and there were also still tax havens and differing tax regimes among countries. 'And those who can buy expensive lawyers can then create company structures that avoid tax.' He noted that some of these tax schemes were illegal, while others might be strictly speaking legal, but were still draining resources from developing countries. 'The fact that we now have a sort of a game plan for doing G20 work on this, that's very important in itself,' but he suggested it would be hard to reach consensus on a road map because of differing perspectives on illicit financial flows among G20 countries. He also noted that the G20 development meeting had operationalised and advanced some of the conclusions from the recent Financing For Development Conference in Seville, Spain. 'And that's very positive.' 'Special victory' for SA He said that this had been a special victory for South Africa because former President Thabo Mbeki had chaired the United Nations Economic Commission panel, which investigated illicit financial flows from Africa, and reported in 2015 that they were causing an outflow of capital from Africa of at least $50-billion a year. But there had since been little progress on illicit financial flows, so it was a major achievement that the G20 as a whole had now agreed to tackle the problem. Norway's G20 sherpa, Henrik Harboe, was a member of Mbeki's IFF panel back in 2015. Asked if Norway and other aid donor countries could step up to fill the aid gap caused by the withdrawal of the US, Aukrust said the problem was that it was not just the US, but several European countries that were reducing aid. 'So we need to think differently and we need to think smarter. We need to have more private investment and we also need to work more for domestic resource mobilisation. And these are all the key factors in Norway's development policy and issues that we are bringing to the table, combined with still being a large and reliable partner.' He stressed that Norway itself was not reducing its own development aid, constituting one percent of its gross national income, beyond the 0.7% target set by the OECD, which few countries were meeting. Soilihi said 'We need to channel more resources because there's been a financing shock, and this is why we want to work as a group, first with the European Union, because we have the capacity to bring meaningful financing when we work together, and second of all, within the community of the 4P, which is a political community of now 73 member states from all continents, all revenues, all income levels, and we have with this group a powerful tool to bring meaningful solutions to the table, bridging the gap between the North and the South.' Soilihi noted that the G20 member states produced 75% of global trade and 90% of global GDP. DM
IOL News
2 days ago
- IOL News
The data black hole: South Africa cannot govern what it cannot see
At Beitbridge alone, an estimated R690 million in smuggled goods passes annually, says the author. Image: Independent Newspapers Archives At South Africa's northern border, the crossings continue quietly, steadily and mostly unrecorded. While public debate often centres on the visibility of foreign nationals, the far more consequential reality remains largely neglected: South Africa has not conducted a comprehensive national audit of migration flows in over a decade. There is no integrated system tracking who enters, who stays or how movements across borders intersect with labour markets, infrastructure pressure or regional development. This absence is not merely an administrative gap; it is an entrenched institutional blind spot that weakens governance, inflames public anxiety and erodes our credibility in a continent that is moving towards integration through data. The Department of Home Affairs, along with other state organs, operates with fragmented or outdated systems. A biometric border management system, budgeted at R400 million between 2020 and 2023, remains partially deployed and disconnected from labour, policing and regional intelligence networks. As confirmed in the 2025 White Paper on Labour Migration, South Africa has yet to establish a functional labour market information system that connects cross-border movement data to national planning. Stats SA's Quarterly Labour Force Surveys and Mid-Year Population Estimates offer no clear picture of undocumented populations. Civil society and academic estimates vary widely, from 2.5 to over 5 million undocumented migrants. In this vacuum, policies are constructed, services are stretched and myths are allowed to harden into assumptions. The cost of not knowing is rarely borne by those in power. In practice, this sustained opacity benefits a wide range of actors. At Beitbridge alone, an estimated R690 million in smuggled goods passes annually, enabled by under-monitored crossings and document fraud. Informal labour markets, particularly in construction, agriculture and retail, absorb undocumented workers under exploitative conditions, displacing regulation and depressing wages. According to a 2022 WIEGO study, 44% of informal traders in Johannesburg's inner city are foreign nationals, operating with little oversight. At the upper end of the labour market, foreign professionals are frequently hired in sectors such as academia, banking and technology; yet there is no public system for tracking or disaggregating these appointments by origin, skills category or permit status. This lack of consolidated data limits institutional accountability and makes it difficult to assess either the scale of crossborder hiring or its alignment with national development priorities. For political actors, the absence of reliable data allows migration to become a rhetorical device, one that can distract from policy failures when evidence is lacking. The implications of this data vacuum stretch across all tiers of governance. Human trafficking, a R10 billion industry in Southern Africa, flourishes in the blind spots between policy and enforcement. The cost of deportation operations alone has reached R1.2 billion over the past two years; funds that could be redirected to stabilising urban infrastructure or creating employment pathways for local youth. South Africa's 8.9 million NEET youth (not in employment, education or training) compete in an increasingly chaotic labour environment. In the absence of disaggregated skills and migration data, their anxieties are misdirected and their prospects uncertain. Meanwhile, AfCFTA's R50 trillion market potential, built on the free movement of people and goods, assumes that member states can at least measure who is moving. At present, South Africa cannot meet that assumption. According to the International Organization for Migration, over 70% of intra-SADC migration, formal and informal, culminates within South Africa's borders. As neighbouring countries like Eswatini, Mozambique and Namibia become holding zones or corridors for redirected global migration, South Africa increasingly absorbs the outcome of upstream policy decisions. In the absence of regional coordination and continuous cross-border insight, onward movement into South Africa becomes both untraceable and increasingly difficult to manage. Yet without this capacity, we remain unaware of the scale, the conditions and the consequences. The lack of coordination across the region is now more than a technical failure; it is a strategic risk. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Migration data is more than a governance tool; it is a lever for national development. The 2023 Africa Migration Report shows that countries linking mobility to infrastructure, skills and labour planning see stronger growth and more social cohesion. Africa's growth now hinges on human mobility: artisans, engineers, students and informal traders moving across borders. Yet South Africa has not embedded mobility into its planning frameworks. In the absence of integrated data systems, migration remains untracked, unaligned and undervalued. As data scientists and statisticians gather this November, from the South African Statistical Association's summit in Gauteng to the Global Data and AI Summit in Nairobi, African states are preparing to lead with insight. South Africa must do the same. South Africa's leadership in Africa cannot rest on sentiment alone. True Pan-Africanism is not about borderless idealism; it is about accountable systems, shared data and the ability to protect both sovereignty and solidarity through intelligence and cooperation. Until we have the capacity to measure movement, protect labour markets and coordinate with neighbours, liberalisation is not visionary; it is volatile. Pan-Africanism must evolve from declarations to data. That is how we protect the integrity of regional integration. The answer lies not in simply closing borders but in building intelligent ones. South Africa's ability to respond begins with a national migration audit, conducted over 12 months and grounded in interdepartmental collaboration. A digitally enabled migration observatory, anchored in Pretoria and integrated with SADC partners, would help close critical information gaps and restore transparency. This should be complemented by a real-time regional registry and a public-facing dashboard that informs rather than inflames national debate. This is not just a state imperative; it is a national one. Training up to 100 000 NEET youth in migration analytics, digital registry design and regional coordination would create new professional pathways while restoring confidence in the function of the state. Private sector institutions, from banks to transport firms, must also align to new standards of identity verification and border logistics, investing in systems that support clarity and social cohesion. Cities such as London and countries like Morocco demonstrate that well-resourced migration data systems, when implemented with robust oversight, can build coordination and accountability; though even these models must guard against overspend and privacy breaches. Africa is not short of talent or templates. What we need is clarity of vision and the institutional courage to act on what we find. South Africa risks falling behind not because migration is inherently destabilising but because we do not see it clearly enough to manage it constructively. Visibility is no longer optional. It is a strategy for sovereignty, cohesion and credibility in a regional future already unfolding around us. Nomvula Zeldah Mabuza is a Risk Governance and Compliance Specialist with extensive experience in strategic risk and industrial operations. She holds a Diploma in Business Management (Accounting) from Brunel University, UK, and is an MBA candidate at Henley Business School, South Africa. Image: Supplied Nomvula Zeldah Mabuza is a Risk Governance and Compliance Specialist with extensive experience in strategic risk and industrial operations. She holds a Diploma in Business Management (Accounting) from Brunel University, UK, and is an MBA candidate at Henley Business School, South Africa. *** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL. BUSINESS REPORT
