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The Citizen
a day ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Are you employed if you work an hour a week? Stats SA says yes
The unemployment rate depends on your definition of employment … It's complicated: A single hour of paid work the week prior to being interviewed by Stats SA counts as 'being employed' – and being 'employed' could put a social grant at risk. Picture: Adobe Stock It happens from time to time that someone questions the integrity of the survey methods and accuracy of the figures produced by Statistics SA. The result is always the same – the head of Stats SA comes out all guns blazing to prove the statistical validity of his team's work. The most recent debate around Stats SA's figures erupted when Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie remarked that the unemployment rate in South Africa could be as low as 10%. Stats SA sticks to its estimate of an official unemployment rate of nearly 32.9% – and the expanded unemployment rate of 43.1%. Fourie argues that Stats SA does not count everyone who is working in the informal sector. His view is probably influenced by the fact that Capitec has 24 million clients. He noted that nearly three million of Capitec's clients earn an income without formal employment, and more than one million use their bank accounts to operate a small business. Fourie says the data suggests that some four million people are earning an income in the informal sector. In addition, the latest figures from the different banks in SA show that Standard Bank has around 12 million local clients, Absa has 12.7 million, FNB has 8.6 million, and Nedbank has 7.6 million. TymeBank states that it has 10 million clients. The total comes to nearly 75 million. It raises the question of why anybody would need a bank account – and apparently multiple accounts at more than one bank – if they don't have money or don't earn money somehow. Perhaps these figures support Fourie's argument. ALSO READ: Is South Africa's unemployment rate really only 10%? Not so, says Stats SA head But the Capitec CEO received more criticism than support. Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke issued a statement saying that Stats SA does measure the informal sector. 'The informal economy is not ignored,' says Maluleke. 'Stats SA produces several statistical products that measure this sector, including the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) and the Survey of Employers and the Self-Employed. The informal sector is measured, tracked and reported on consistently. Stats SA follows the guidelines set by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for defining the informal sector, which is characterised primarily by the registration status and size of enterprises or businesses. 'Our methods stand open to rigorous examination, inviting scrutiny to ensure integrity and trustworthiness. 'The data we produce is publicly accessible, fostering a culture of openness,' he adds. ALSO READ: Minister agrees unemployment statistics should include work in informal sector 'Our concepts, definitions and classifications are meticulously crafted, guided by the highest global standards and best practices. We take pride in our commitment to transparency, clearly articulating what we measure, and the methods employed to derive our insights.' Maluleke appeared on national television to assure people that the statistics are accurate. He took Fourie on: 'If he says unemployment is sitting at 10%, it means 10% of 25 million, we'd have 2.5 million people who are unemployed in South Africa and then it means that we have 22.5 million people who are employed. The Sars [South African Revenue Service], from personal income tax doesn't even have such numbers for starters.' He says it is incorrect and misleading to suggest that Stats SA somehow 'misses' those who are employed in the informal sector. The latest QLFS for the first quarter of 2025 estimates the working age population at 41.7 million of which slightly more than 25 million are considered to be in the labour force. The rest of the people are not working and not looking for work, including those still at school or studying, in jail or those who have a (wealthy and generous) spouse or family to provide for them. Around 16.8 million are classified as employed, including 3.3 million in the informal sector and more than one million in private households (domestic workers and gardeners). That leaves 8.3 million unemployed and looking for work. There are another nearly 3.5 million people who are classified as discouraged workseekers. The Stats SA report defines a discouraged workseeker as 'a person who was not employed during the reference period, wanted to work, was available to work or to start a business, but did not take active steps to find work during the last four weeks' preceding the date of the survey. ALSO READ: Unemployment underscored by weak economic activity – 1 in 3 unemployed in SA The employed, by gender and hours of work Source: Stats SA How Stats SA gets its data Stats SA says its sampling method is statistically correct and representative. The QLFS surveys households directly and collects information from approximately 30 000 dwelling units. It collects data on the labour market activities of all individuals aged 15 years and above in the selected dwellings. Desiree Manamela, chief director of labour statistics at Stats SA, says data collectors visit the selected dwelling units once every three months and interview all the people residing in the dwelling. 'There can be multiple households within a dwelling unit. Everybody in those households will be interviewed,' she says. 'The survey is structured in such a way that we don't simply ask people whether they are employed or unemployed. There is a series of questions that we ask people within households and then we analyse the answers based on international standards to classify them according to different labour force statuses – meaning individuals are classified into three mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories following ILO hierarchy. 'We have employed persons, we have unemployed persons, and we have people that we call inactive. These three labour market statuses are supposed to sum up to the working age population,' she says. 'Employment takes priority over unemployment, and unemployment takes priority over inactivity. The first status that we derive is employment. 'We first want to know, of the people who are in the working age population, how many are employed. Then, once you have classified the people that are employed, we move on to the next status, which is unemployment. Now we ask people questions where we are going to classify them into the unemployed or the inactive. Unemployment will take priority over inactivity.' ALSO READ: 'Government initiatives alone can't address SA's unemployment rate' Odd jobs regarded as employment It is quite a lengthy questionnaire that collects a lot of data. One should keep in mind, though, that the questionnaire has been designed to ensure that, based on individual responses, respondents are only asked questions that are relevant to them. Questions are arranged in six sections totalling approximately 30 pages. The questionnaire starts by identifying the respondents and covers basic aspects such as age, population group, sex, marital status, and education. The questions on employment details are asked of all persons aged 15 years and above who indicated that they did work for pay or profit – even if a person worked only for an hour during the week preceding the interview – or if they were temporarily absent. Odd jobs for payment and even unpaid work in a household business is regarded as employment. Stats SA asks about the type of work, main tasks at work, working hours, type of business, type of products produced, income, and participation in public work programmes. ALSO READ: Economy sheds jobs again in first quarter, unemployment worse than year ago Time-related underemployment The QLFS collects data on how many people worked and for how many hours. A single hour of paid work during the past week classifies a person as employed. Some employed persons may report that they would like to work additional hours if the extra hours are paid. This information assists in deriving persons in time-related underemployment. The QLFS report for the first quarter of 2025 discloses that of the 16.8 million employed persons, only 9.4 million work a standard work week of 40 to 45 hours. Approximately 518 000 'employed' persons worked less than 15 hours a week. Stats SA measures this time-related underemployment by the more than 781 000 workers who said that they would like to work more hours for additional pay. We asked Manamela for a simple explanation of these statistics to confirm the information. 'We don't say a person who is working 40 hours a week is employed and somebody who is working only 20 hours is half-employed. You are either employed, unemployed or inactive; and for those employed, if they work less than 35 hours a week and are available and want to work more hours, then they are regarded as underemployed,' she says. These statistics prove Fourie wrong. If anything, most people may actually think that Stats SA is underestimating unemployment. ALSO READ: SA youth not unemployed, rather under-employed People lie or leave out information There is also the possibility that the respondents in the survey are lying to the data collectors when asked whether they are employed. There are many reasons to lie, including those among the 18 million social grant beneficiaries who also work a day or two per week. Evading income tax is another reason to lie. And criminals wouldn't be honest. Robbery, hijacking, drug dealing, cigarette smuggling, rhino poaching, investment scams, and prostitution generate an income, but these 'self-employed workers' won't reveal their employment status. They simply bank the cash quietly. This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.
IOL News
16-06-2025
- Politics
- IOL News
Sadtu calls for urgent measures to address youth unemployment
The South African Democratic Teachers' Union (Sadtu) said it salutes the youth of 1976 for their bravery, unity, and undying spirit. This year's Youth Month is observed under the theme: 'Skills for the Changing World – Empowering Youth for Meaningful Economic Participation.' To fully grasp the significance of 16 June, one must understand the bleak landscape of South Africa in the 1960s and early 1970s. This day pays tribute to the brave young people who, on June 16, 1976, rose in protest against the apartheid regime's imposition of Afrikaans as a medium of instruction in black schools. Armed with nothing but courage and stones, they confronted the brutal machinery of the apartheid state. Many were killed, arrested, and injured, but their resistance ignited a wave of defiance that accelerated the struggle for liberation. According to Statistics South Africa's Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for the first quarter of 2025, youth unemployment remains alarmingly high. The total number of unemployed youth rose by 151,000 to 4.8 million. At the same time, the number of employed youth declined by 153,000 to 5.7 million. This pushed the youth unemployment rate from 44.6% in Q4 of 2024 to 46.1% in Q1 of 2025. The union said this year's theme resonates with its 10th Congress theme which emphasise the strengthening of foundational learning and functional skills to advance inclusive and sustainable economic growth. 'For many young South Africans, skills for the changing world are out of reach. Many lack access to quality education and skills development opportunities. Others, despite having qualifications, find that job opportunities are few and shrinking,' the union said. The union said it calls on the private sector to rise to the challenge to:. Invest in quality education and training that responds to the demands of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Expand access to vocational, artisan, and technical training. Support youth entrepreneurship and innovation. Prioritise youth employment in both public and private programmes. 'As SADTU, rooted in the education sector, we reaffirm our commitment to support initiatives aimed at skilling the youth. But beyond just skills, we advocate for a holistic education system that builds caring, tolerant, patriotic, and socially responsible citizens. To fail our youth today is to betray the sacrifices of the 1976 generation. Let us honour their legacy by empowering today's youth to shape a better tomorrow not from the margins, but from the centre of our society and economy,' the statement concluded.
IOL News
13-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
The real story behind South Africa's unemployment figures
South Africa's unemployment rate has risen to 32.9%. Image: File SOUTH Africa's unemployment rate is a lightning rod for political debate, economic anxiety, and public frustration. In the wake of Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie's claim that the 'real' unemployment rate is closer to 10%, far below Statistics South Africa's official 32.9%, the national conversation has reignited. Critics of Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) suggest that the official figures are not just technical measures but political artefacts that erase the economic activity of millions in the informal sector. But does this criticism stand up to scrutiny? The answer is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. Capitec CEO, Gerrie Fourie. Image: Supplied Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Why Would Anyone Overstate Unemployment? Let's start with the most provocative claim: that StatsSA and the government have a motive to overstate unemployment. This accusation defies both political logic and institutional practice. High unemployment is a political liability, not an asset. It invites criticism, undermines investor confidence, and puts government performance under the microscope. If there were any incentive, it would be to understate the problem, not exaggerate it. A trend we see in a number of African countries where the official unemployment rates are so low they defy logic and reality. StatsSA is an independent institution that, while not perfect, has a lot of credibility. Its data is scrutinised by economists, international agencies, and the media. Any manipulation or systematic bias would be quickly exposed by these watchdogs. In reality, the agency's credibility depends on its objectivity and adherence to global standards. Does StatsSA Ignore Informal Work? The Evidence Says No A central argument in the current debate is that StatsSA's methodology 'renders millions invisible' by failing to count informal work. This is simply not true. StatsSA's Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is designed to capture all forms of work, including informal jobs, self-employment, and unregistered businesses. The QLFS asks about any activity, formal or informal, that brings in income, whether it's selling vetkoek, running a backyard salon, or hustling as a car guard. If you worked for at least an hour in the reference week, you're counted as employed. Both current and former statisticians-general have clarified that informal work is counted, as required by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards. Recent Stats SA research confirms that the informal sector employs about 19.5% of the workforce, nearly one in five jobs. This includes street vendors, home-based businesses, and unregistered enterprises, all of which sustain households and fuel local economies. Comparing Apples and Oranges: International Context The arguments supporting Fourie's claims point to countries like India, Brazil, and Zimbabwe, where unemployment rates are low despite massive informality, and suggest South Africa is an outlier. But this comparison ignores key differences: Economic Structure: South Africa's informal sector is smaller than in many developing countries, partly due to regulatory and historical factors. In India, almost any economic activity, no matter how marginal, is counted as employment, even if it's not enough to survive on. Definitions Matter: Some countries use looser criteria for employment, counting sporadic or survivalist activity as work. South Africa's approach is more rigorous, aiming to distinguish between meaningful employment and mere survivalism. Policy Hostility: South Africa's informal sector faces regulatory barriers, policing, and licensing bottlenecks that suppress its growth, unlike in countries where informality is the norm and often the only option. Is the Quarterly Unemployment Report Flawed? StatsSA's quarterly unemployment report is not methodologically flawed. There is also no evidence that it is politically manipulated. The agency publishes detailed methodological notes, welcomes peer review, and its data aligns with other indicators of economic hardship, like sluggish GDP growth, high poverty, and social grant dependency. If millions of informal workers were being missed, we'd see glaring inconsistencies elsewhere, which we do not. The QLFS is transparent about its limitations and is constantly evolving. For instance, the latest data shows that while formal sector employment decreased, informal sector employment actually increased by 17,000 in the first quarter of 2025. This demonstrates that informal work is not only counted but also tracked over time. The Real Issue: Structural Barriers, Not Statistical Tricks The real challenge is not statistical invisibility but structural exclusion. South Africa's informal sector is not as robust as in other developing countries. Regulatory barriers, monopolistic competition, and a lack of support mean that informal work is often precarious and low-paid. The country's economic structure is dominated by large corporations, making it hard for micro-enterprises to thrive. Even where state policy recognises informal activity, it rarely dismantles the barriers that prevent informal traders from scaling up. The shift in informal enterprises toward home-based operations and the stagnation of licensing reveal a sector that is surviving under constant threat, not thriving. Hybrid Measurement: A Welcome Innovation, Not a Silver Bullet Calls to supplement survey data with financial transaction records and digital platform data are valid and should be explored. Capitec's own data on township transactions could offer valuable insights. But these are refinements, not fundamental corrections. The current statistics are not a 'mirage'; they are a sober reflection of a society where too many are locked out of meaningful work, formal or informal. Let's Fix the Economy, Not the Messenger It is true that black South Africans face disproportionately high unemployment rates and that the legacy of apartheid continues to shape economic opportunity. But this is not the result of statistical erasure; it is a reflection of structural realities. StatsSA's data exposes these inequalities; it does not create them. Nco Dube a political economist, businessman, and social commentator. Image: Supplied
The Star
26-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
ActionSA writes to President Ramaphosa demanding dismissal of employment minister
ActionSA has written to President Ramaphosa, requesting that he dismiss the Minister of Employment and Labour, Nomakhosazana Meth, for her clear failure to arrest the deepening unemployment crisis that continues to erode hope, dignity and opportunity for millions of South Africans. The latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), Q1:2025, paints a dire picture: The official unemployment rate rose to 32.9%, up from 31.9% the previous quarter. A staggering 8.2 million South Africans are now unemployed, with an additional 3.5 million discouraged work-seekers. 291 000 jobs were lost in the first quarter alone – the first such Q1 contraction since 2021. This equates to more than 24,000 jobs lost each week, and almost 5 000 each workday. The proportion of young South Africans aged 15–34 who are not in employment, education, or training (NEET) rose to 45.1% in Q1:2025 — a devastating indicator that nearly half of our youth have been left without opportunity, support or a path to a better future. There is a glaring absence of any meaningful strategy, either in planning or implementation and despite full awareness of South Africa's worsening unemployment crisis, Minister Meth has failed to present a coherent plan to stem job losses, support the informal economy or tackle the systemic barriers that keep young people out of the workforce. In November 2024, ActionSA asked Minister Meth whether she would resign should the country's distressing unemployment figures continue to rise. Her response was blunt and unapologetic: 'Unfortunately, I won't resign.' This laid bare a disturbing indifference to the suffering of millions of South Africans. It is an attitude that reflects the posture of an uncaring government that has grown comfortable with failure while ordinary citizens pay the price. Nearly a year into her tenure, Minister Meth has not demonstrated the urgency, capacity or leadership required to respond to this economic and social emergency. South Africa's working-age population cannot afford further stagnation under ineffective stewardship. The absence of meaningful performance management for GNU Ministers has created a culture where failure carries zero consequence. In any functional democracy, such dismal figures amid worsening socio-economic conditions would compel a Minister to take responsibility and step down. Sadly, this standard of accountability is sorely lacking in South Africa and glaringly absent in the Ramaphosa-led administrations. ActionSA believes that something has to give. Sitting on our hands while millions suffer is simply not an option. We are committed to using every available lever to ensure that South Africa's unemployment crisis is addressed with the urgency it demands. Alan Beesley MP, ActionSA Member of Parliament
The Citizen
22-05-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
43 000 Mpumalanga residents lose jobs in first quarter of 2025
The country celebrated Workers' Day on May 1, but about 43 000 Mpumalanga residents lost their jobs in the first three months of this year. These unfortunate people are unlikely to have joined the celebrations. Stats SA released the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for the first quarter of 2025 on Tuesday, May 13. The results for the first quarter of 2025 show that the total number of unemployed youth (15 to 34 years) increased by 151 000 to 4.8 million, while employed youth recorded a decrease of 153 000 to 5.7 million. As a result, the youth unemployment rate increased from 44.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 46.1% in the first quarter of 2025. ALSO READ: Public warned against illegal sand mining Currently, youth unemployment in Mpumalanga is at 46.4%, one of the highest in the country. Unemployed jobseekers stand on the sides of the roads in Mbombela every day, seeking temporary job opportunities. During an interview with a jobseeker in the CBD, Carol Ndlovu (not her real name) said due to the high number of unemployed people in the area it has become difficult to find permeant employment. Ndlovu said many people prefer to clean their own homes and the increase in unemployed people has made it more difficult to find work opportunities. 'The hardest days are when I have to borrow money for the bus fee, yet I go home without any money. Some days we go home without anyone offering us work and this means I do not get to raise money for transport to go back home. I tried to apply for work, however, I struggled to find opportunities. I have a family, so I decided to wake up every morning, get onto a bus and leave my township so that I might put food on the table.' Siyabonga Maziya, another unemployed resident, said they face various challenges in their quest to make ends meet. 'We sometimes stand on the side of the road and we are unable to take money home because we could not find any opportunities. We have tried to apply for jobs but we are not getting anything.' ALSO READ: High court orders that assets be seized after alleged R5m Covid-19 PPE fraud uncovered In a statement, Grovè-Morgan said the DA is concerned that over 40 000 residents of the province have lost their jobs in the first quarter of this year. The QLFS report also revealed that the majority of the job losses were in the agriculture, mining and construction sectors. 'These job losses paint a very bleak picture of Mpumalanga's job market, where the unemployment rate increased to 35.4 % from 34.7% at the same time last year. Furthermore, the number of discouraged work seekers (expanded unemployment rate) in Mpumalanga increased to over 2.5 million (49.3%) out of a population of 5.1 million. 'The province's lost generation, the youth, contributes significantly to the expanded unemployment rate. This is a crisis that needs to be tackled by both the provincial government and the private sector.' The newspaper contacted the Office of the Premier for a comment and was referred to the Department of Economic Development and Tourism. By the time of going to press the department had not responded to the enquiry. At Caxton, we employ humans to generate daily fresh news, not AI intervention. Happy reading!
