Who wins and loses in Republicans' 'big, beautiful bill'

NBC News

30-06-2025

Legislation making its way through the Senate stands to have wide-ranging effects across the economy — bolstering tax benefits for businesses and higher-income households while threatening health insurance for millions of Americans and putting thousands of clean energy and health care jobs at risk.
The bill, which is more than 900 pages long and Republicans have dubbed the 'big, beautiful bill,' passed a key procedural vote over the weekend in the Senate largely along party lines, with all but two Republicans voting to advance it.
The Senate is now debating the measure before taking a final vote. If the bill passes the Senate, it will then go back to the House for another vote and ultimately must be signed by President Donald Trump before becoming law. While changes could still be made and its passage isn't certain, here are some of the key winners and losers under the latest version of the bill.
Winner: Corporations
The legislation makes permanent trillions of dollars in corporate tax cuts enacted in 2017 during Trump's first term and expands other tax breaks for businesses. That includes permanently lowering the corporate tax rate to 21% from the 35% level before the 2017 tax cuts. The bill also extends or increases other tax breaks for business investments, like those on new machinery, equipment and research and development, which business groups have said would encourage business investments in the U.S. The bill also extends through 2033 tax incentives enacted in 2017 for businesses that invest in disadvantaged areas, called Opportunity Zones.
Loser: Younger generations
The tax cuts will add around $3 trillion over the next decade to the national debt, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office. That means the U.S. will have to borrow more money to cover its expenses, requiring it to pay an estimated $600 billion to $700 billion in additional interest payments — money that the federal government could be spending on other priorities or longer-term investments, according to an analysis by the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The amount of money Americans pay toward interest on the country's debt is expected to increase sharply in the coming years, totaling $78 trillion over the next 30 years and accounting for 34% of federal revenues, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Higher debt could also drive up interest rates for both public and private borrowers because higher debt levels can raise concerns among investors about the U.S. government's ability to ultimately repay its debt.
Winner: Higher-income households
The bill would greatly expand the amount of state and local taxes households are able to deduct from their federal taxes from the current cap of $10,000 to up to $40,000.
The biggest beneficiaries from the change would be households making between $200,000 and $500,000 a year and those who own property, because they are more likely to pay higher property and income taxes, according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. It would also disproportionately benefit households in higher-tax states, like New York, New Jersey and California.
Wealthy households and business owners will also benefit from a permanent reduction in the estate tax. Under the legislation, heirs of estates valued at less than $15 million will not have to pay a tax on their inheritance. That cap is set to drop to $7 million in 2026.
Loser: Lower-income households
Provisions in the latest version of the bill would cause nearly 12 million low-income individuals to lose their health insurance over the next decade by cutting around $1 trillion from Medicaid, the health insurance program for poor and disabled people, according to the CBO. The Senate bill includes steeper cuts to Medicaid than an earlier version passed by the House.
The cuts would take a particular toll on Americans in rural areas who are more likely to receive their health insurance through Medicaid than those in urban or suburban areas. Researchers at Georgetown University found that 40% of children in small and rural towns receive their health insurance from Medicaid. The bill could also reduce the number of people who receive their insurance through the Affordable Care Act.
The version of the Senate bill released over the weekend also includes cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also know as food stamps, by requiring adults without a disability between the ages of 18 to 64 to work at least 80 hours a month unless they are caring for a child under the age of 10. The added requirements could lead to $300 billion in cuts to food stamp spending, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Winner: Workers with income from tips and overtime
The legislation would carry through on a campaign promise by President Trump to exempt income from tips and overtime from federal income taxes. Tipped workers make up about 2.5% of the workforce and about 12% of hourly workers clock some overtime each year, according to an analysis by the Yale Budget Lab.
Both tax exemptions are structured as deductions that workers would claim when they filed their taxes the following year. The tax exemption would apply only to federal income tax, so workers would still have to pay Social Security and Medicare taxes on their income, along with any state or local taxes.
Among tipped workers, as many as 40% already don't make enough money to have to pay federal income tax on any of their earnings so the benefit would be relatively limited, the Yale Budget Lab found.
Loser: Health care workers
Less funding for Medicaid and fewer people with health insurance would mean a drop-off in doctor's office visits, prescription refills and medical procedures — and, as a result, fewer workers needed to support those types of services. That could lead to the loss of nearly 500,000 health care jobs over the next decade, according to an analysis by George Washington University and the Commonwealth Fund.
The Senate legislation seeks to mitigate some of that pain for rural health care providers, who care for a disproportionately high number of Medicaid patients, with a $25 billion fund for rural hospitals.
Winner: Fossil fuel companies
Both the House and the Senate bill include wins for the fossil fuel industry, stripping away numerous provisions put in place during President Joe Biden's administration to shift energy consumption away from fossil fuels. Both bills would delay a fee on excess methane pollution by oil and gas companies, roll back Biden-era rules to curb vehicle emissions and include provisions intended to speed the development of new fossil fuel projects.
The Senate bill also includes a new tax workaround for oil drillers that would enable many of them to avoid having to pay a corporate alternative minimum tax of 15%.
Loser: Clean energy companies and workers
Clean energy companies say the bill could cripple their businesses by stripping away tax subsidies and funding made available during the Biden administration. The Senate bill would go further than the earlier version passed in the House by imposing new tax penalties on wind and solar farm projects started after 2027, unless they meet certain requirements. That could jeopardize billions of dollars in investments in clean energy projects — along with the thousands of jobs that would come along with those projects, including in Republican-led states like Georgia and South Carolina.