Where are US and China heading after Shangri-La Dialogue? – DW – 06/02/2025

DW

02-06-2025

The cracks between the two superpowers, the US and China, seem to have widened during Asia's premier security forum. But while Washington is warning of the "threat" of China, Beijing is playing it close to the chest.
The Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's premier security forum held annually in Singapore, wrapped up this weekend with a clear message from the United States: the Indo-Pacific is a top priority for the Trump administration amid what it sees as China's aggressive posturing.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Asian allies to step up their own defense in response to China's military build-up near Taiwan, a self-governing island Beijing claims as its own. Hegseth mentioned China more than 20 times in his first-ever speech at Shangri-La, and issued a more direct warning about any plans Beijing may have to take Taiwan.
"Any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world. There's no reason to sugarcoat it," Hegseth said on Saturday.
"The threat China poses is real. And it could be imminent," he said. "We hope not, but it certainly could be."
Chinese Rear Admiral Hu Gangfeng, who is leading a delegation from the National Defense University of the People's Liberation Army, called the US remarks "groundless accusations."
China's Rear Admiral Hu Gangfeng fired back against the US claims Image: Edgar Su/REUTERS
The next day, China's Foreign Ministry also issued a statement to protest against Hegseth's remarks, claiming that the US military presence in Asia-Pacific is "turning the region into a powder keg."
China's defense minister stays away
The usual plenary session where Beijing used to outline its Indo-Pacific strategy was canceled this year, and speculation over why Beijing chose not to send Defense Minister Dong Jun to Singapore lingered throughout the three-day summit.
Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, told DW on site that the minister was absent due to travel schedule arrangements and not for any strategic reason.
But other analysts suggested that China may be trying to avoid tough questions on security issues. Another possible factor is that Washington was presenting its Indo-Pacific policy at a global stage for the first time in US President Donald Trump's second term.
China threat set to dominate Singapore security talks
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"It seems to me that China opted for a more cautious and defensive approach this time. It was waiting for the US to make a move," said Lin Ying-Yu, an assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University.
"Once the US has made its statements, then [China] will respond accordingly," he added.
As for clues about Beijing's possible countermeasures, Lin suggested waiting for the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, another international defense conference hosted annually by China in September or October.
Lin also warned that "China might use military actions toward Taiwan as a way to send a message to the US, and that's something we should be watching out for."
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China, which now has the world's largest navy by number of warships, has reportedly stepped up its deployment of naval and coast guard vessels across East Asian waters since early May.
Zhou, the Chinese military expert, told DW that the tone Hegseth used to address US-China competition shows an "almost 180 degrees change" compared to the Biden administration and "runs contrary to what his predecessors said."
Hegseth issues Taiwan warning to Beijing
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Standing at the same podium last year, the former US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized that war with China was neither imminent nor unavoidable, stressing the importance of renewed dialogue between the two countries in avoiding miscalculations.
When asked at the venue about the future of China-US relations, Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, said he expects day-to-day defense operations from both sides to "appear more confrontational," but without sudden escalation.
France's Macron warns of global divide
At the forum, French President Emmanuel Macron called out the apparent growing division between China and the US as the main risk currently facing the world.
"The instruction given to all the others: you have to choose your side," Macron said at the opening day. "If we do so, we will kill the global order, and we will destroy methodically all the institutions we created after the Second World War," he added.
In response to the concerns of the world splitting into two opposing camps, Zhou told DW: "Clearly we have not reached that level, which is a total hostile relationship between two enemies."
"We are still away from that and hope we will always be away from that," he said.
Tensions slowly rising around Taiwan
While China seemed more cautious in the diplomatic arena, its actions in the Taiwan Strait seem to be growing more aggressive.
Since Taiwan's current President William Lai took office over a year ago, the island's official data shows more frequent crossings by Chinese military aircraft over the Taiwan Strait's median line — the unofficial boundary between mainland China and Taiwan, despite Beijing officially considering all of Taiwan as Chinese territory. Taiwan also recorded an increased naval presence around its shores.
In Singapore, US Defense Secretary Hegseth warned that China could be ready to invade Taiwan as early as 2027 — a statement that echoes previous assessment by US authorities.
China has dismissed the 2027 timeline before but reiterated the goal of reaching reunification with Taiwan, whether by peaceful or non-peaceful means.
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Despite being one of the most contentious flashpoints in the world, Taiwan had little official representation at Asia's premier defense forum, Taiwanese media reported.
The name "Taiwan" was also reportedly not shown on the guest list for the only two attendees from the island: I-Chung Lai, the CEO of a government-affiliated think tank, and former Defense Minister Andrew Nien-dzu Yang.
Edited by: Darko Janjevic