Don't forget about Iran's space program

Politico

11 hours ago

With help from Daniel Lippman
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Left out of Israel and the United States's bombardment of Iran was one potentially key piece of infrastructure: Iran's growing space program, which U.S. officials have warned could one day help power an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking far beyond the Middle East. The program may have suffered indirectly in the strikes though — and could well be a target in the future.
Iran currently has no known program for building ICBMs, per NICHOLAS CARL, an Iran analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. Such missiles, first developed in the 1950s, shoot into space and then reenter the atmosphere to strike targets as much as 11,000 miles away. Indeed, Iran has taken pains to say it has limited its missiles' range to under 1250 miles, Carl said.
However, Iran does have an increasingly robust space program — which could allow it to develop the rocketry and associated tech necessary to build an ICBM.
In 2023, Iran launched a rocket with a capsule capable of life support as part of plans to send a human to space. In 2024 it launched three satellite-carrying rockets. Meanwhile, ties between Iran and top space power Russia have grown increasingly close amid Iran's support for Russia's war on Ukraine. Russia launched one Iranian satellite from its Vostochny Cosmodrome in February 2023, then launched a further two Iranian satellites in November 2024. Such collaboration could be particularly appealing to Russia after its space partners in Europe cut ties with Moscow following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
'Iran is a willing and paying customer right when others have backed out,' said KARI BINGEN, who leads the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.
All of this is alarming to the U.S., which has sanctioned Iran's space program and may have launched a covert campaign to undermine it under the first Trump administration. Strategic Command head Gen. ANTHONY COTTON, in written testimony given this year, stated that Iran's space program 'likely shortens the timeline to produce an ICBM due to the similarities in technology.'
'Why do they have a space program? Is Iran going to go to the moon? No, they're trying to build an ICBM so they can one day put a warhead on it,' Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO warned in a CBS interview this month.
So far, Israel isn't directly targeting Iran's space infrastructure, such as its launch pads. However, the space program may be indirectly squeezed by the strikes. On June 13, Israel killed Brig. Gen. AMIR ALI HAJIZADEH, who led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, which controls Iran's military space program.
Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on Iranian missile production facilities may have an impact on Iran's space program, said Bingen, given that the subcomponents for space and missile programs have a broad overlap.
Of course, just because Iran has a space program, it doesn't necessarily mean it's using it solely as part of research toward an ICBM. Space programs are often as much about national prestige as national security, as they were when the U.S. and Soviet Union vied to be the first to place astronauts in space and later the moon.
Indeed, in an echo of past space races, Iran's launch of a capsule capable of supporting life reportedly carried animals into space — just as the Soviet Union did when it blasted a dog into orbit back in 1957.
The Inbox
ELUSIVE IRAN TALKS: Iran and the United States have not yet penciled a date for talks, and Iran's making it clear it has one big demand before any negotiations resume: that President DONALD TRUMP stop threatening future strikes.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister MAJID TAKHT-RAVANCHI told the BBC today that 'right now, we are seeking an answer to this question: Are we going to see a repetition of an act of aggression while we are engaging in dialogue?' Takht-Ravanchi added that Iran is not backing down in its desire to retain enrichment capabilities.
The administration isn't relaxing its positions either. White House spokesperson KAROLINE LEAVITT today confirmed that special envoy STEVE WITKOFF is still 'in communication directly and indirectly' with Iranian counterparts. But it's unclear if those efforts are bringing both sides any closer to an agreement about next steps for negotiations.
TRUMP'S SYRIA EXECUTIVE ORDER: Trump will sign an executive order today eliminating most of the remaining U.S. sanctions against Syria, State Department and White House spokespeople said today.
The removal of the sanctions was expected after Trump met with Syrian leader AHMED AL-SHARAA last month in Saudi Arabia and vowed to give the fledgling government in Damascus a lifeline. The reprieves are being offered as a way to help al-Sharaa stabilize the country, which is still plagued by turmoil after the collapse of the regime of Syrian dictator BASHAR ASSAD.
Leavitt insisted at a briefing today that sanctions against Assad and his allies, as well as 'human rights abusers, drug traffickers, persons linked to chemical weapons activities, Islamic State and their affiliates, and Iranian proxies,' will remain in place. It's also worth noting that some sanctions will remain on Syria, including those mandated through the Caesar Civilian Protection Act of 2019. The U.S. will also continue to consider Syria a state sponsor of terrorism.
ISRAEL'S NEW GAZA STRIKES: As the White House signals it wants to return its focus to securing a new deal to end fighting in the Gaza Strip, Israel has launched several military operations in the territory, Reuters' Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Maayan Lubell report.
The Israel Defense Forces issued evacuation orders today for a number of areas in the northern Gaza Strip, forcing a new wave of displacement. Meanwhile, airstrikes and tank attacks killed 60 people in the enclave today in the suburbs of Gaza City. Israel claims it took efforts to lessen/reduce/avoid civilian casualties and targeted the Hamas militant group's command and control centers.
All these military efforts presaged the visit of Israeli strategic affairs minister RON DERMER to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. He'll be meeting with U.S. counterparts Tuesday.
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Keystrokes
ALL CLEAR (FOR NOW): The nation's top cybersecurity agencies are saying there's no sign yet of a coordinated Iranian cyber campaign against the U.S. following the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites.
The statement was jointly issued today by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of Defense Cyber Crime Center and the National Security Agency.
Still, the agencies warned critical infrastructure facilities, such as power grids or dams, to keep on guard.
U.S. utilities have been bracing for Iranian cyberattacks since even before the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan this month, Iran has spent years building up their cyber forces, which the U.S. has accused of being behind campaigns against U.S. companies and government agencies.
Iran's apparent decision to not target the U.S. with cyberstrikes follows its relatively limited military response to the U.S. strike, in which Iran gave advance notice that it would fire missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar.
The Complex
ITALY BRIDGES THE GAP: Italy is eyeing an inventive solution to its struggles to reach the NATO alliance's lofty defense spending targets: building a multibillion-dollar bridge between its mainland peninsula and Sicily.
Our colleagues Tommaso Lecca, Ben Munster and Martina Sapio report that Italian officials are looking to build a long-desired suspension bridge between the Italian peninsula and the Sicilian city of Messina, the construction of which eluded Italy's leaders dating back to the Roman Empire. The expensive bridge — valued at nearly $16 billion — has never been constructed since the process of constructing the large bridge in an active seismic region was long seen as too difficult.
But the argument goes that now with the impetus to spend money on defense, the bridge would be a useful investment that would improve the ability of allies to deploy resources and troops to Sicily, and constructing the bridge for military purposes would clear some of the technical roadblocks associated with the project.
It has been expected that European partners would use some creative accounting to reach the 5 percent defense spending target, especially after the alliance allowed allies to count spending on cybersecurity and infrastructure to support military installations to count as 1.5 percent of that. But this effort could prove to test the limits of the alliance's definition of supportive infrastructure, since the bridge's dual use function to boost military installations in Sicily could be cast into some doubt.
On the Hill
NAVY'S MEGABILL MISSION: The funding bill currently making its way through Congress would fund more Navy ships than the Defense Department has asked for — that is if Republicans can move past other issues they have with Trump's 'big, beautiful bill.'
As our friends at Morning Defense wrote this morning (for Pros!), the GOP-backed reconciliation bill would add 16 new ships to the Navy's fleet. By contrast, the Defense Department asked in its budget request to only add three more. While analysts aren't sure it'll do much to boost the fleet — since the Navy will have to decommission older ships in the longer term to account for maintenance costs — it's a boost to shipyards in the short term.
Yet Republicans are antsy about the Trump administration's efforts to Medicaid costs and the bill's future looks uncertain. Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), who announced he would retire at the end of this Congress over the weekend, and colleagues JIM JUSTICE (R-W.Va.) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), have voiced their concerns about the bill and have not yet committed to voting for it. The bill faces what's expected to be a long 'vote-a-rama' today and potentially tomorrow as Republican leadership looks to appease holdouts while also conforming to strict guidelines for reconciliation set by the Senate parliamentarian.
Broadsides
VYLAN'S VISA REVOCATION: The State Department revoked the visas of British punk duo Bob Vylan after they chanted 'death to the IDF' and 'from the river to the sea, Palestine must be, will be — inshallah — it will be free' at the Glastonbury music festival this past weekend.
As our colleague Cheyanne Daniels reports, Deputy Secretary of State CHRIS LANDAU confirmed the revocation in a social media post, writing on X that the decision was made 'in light of their hateful tirade at Glastonbury, including leading the crowd in death chants. Foreigners who glorify violence and hatred are not welcome visitors to our country.' Bob Vylan — whose members use pseudonyms in protest of what they argue is a surveillance state — was due to tour in the United States.
It's the latest example of the Trump administration using all the procedural levers at its disposal against supporters of the Palestinian cause and institutions it deems have not done enough to combat antisemitism from pro-Palestinian activists and organizers. Visa revocations have become an integral component of those efforts.
The duo did not comment on the revocations. Lead singer BOBBY VYLAN, whose real name is PASCAL ROBINSON-FOSTER, has defended his performance on social media, calling for more protests and saying 'I said what I said.'
Transitions
— Global strategy firm McLarty Associates announced a series of new roles and promotions. JÉRÉMIE GALLON, previously head of McLarty Europe in Brussels, will lead the firm's entire Europe practice. Head of strategy CLAIRE KAISER will co-lead the Eurasia practice. Prior to McLarty, Gallon led AmCham France after years posted to Washington by the EU's foreign service arm, serving as senior political adviser to the EU ambassador to the U.S.. He'll succeed former Ambassador RICK BURT, who built the practice and will remain at the firm as a senior counselor. Managing Director FRAN BURWELL will also be head of research, in addition to her current responsibilities.
— JERRY HENDRIX is now deputy to the associate director for defense at the Office of Management and Budget. He most recently was senior counselor at the Office of Shipbuilding on the National Security Council and served in the Navy for 26 years.
— MEGAN ECHTENKAMP is now briefing book coordinator for the deputy secretary at the Department of Homeland Security. She most recently was director of external affairs at Florida Young Republicans.
What to Read
— Maggie Michael, Reuters: Syrian forces massacred 1,500 Alawites. The chain of command led to Damascus.
— Maria Abi-Habib, Paulina Villegas and Alan Feuer, The New York TImes: Cartel Fighters Make a Desperate Alliance That Could Transform Underworld
— Sarah El Deeb, Associated Press: Survivor of Israel's attack on Iran's Evin prison describes a 'slow death' after 12-day war
— Carl Bildt, Aleksander Kwasniewski, Sanna Marin and Kajsa Ollongren, European Pravda: The cost of saving Europe: what the EU must do now to stop Putin
Tomorrow Today
— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: Explosive Triangle: The U.S., Iran and Israel
— Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 2 p.m.: Schriever Spacepower Series with Col. ROBERT W. DAVIS
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who should never be allowed to develop their own space programs.