How the stock market typically performs during the summer

CNBC

27-05-2025

Memorial Day weekend marked the unofficial start to summer in the U.S., a notable period for investors who like to, as the market adage goes, " sell in May and go away ." Interestingly, a look back over the last 50 years at the S & P 500 's performance shows the three-month stretch from the Friday before Memorial Day through to the Friday before Labor Day in September has mostly been positive for equities, according to Bespoke Investment Group. "The S & P 500's median performance during this period has been a gain of 3.7%, with positive returns 72% of the time," read a note from the firm. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, over 6 months In fact, a closer look at the numbers shows the gains are especially pronounced when the S & P 500 was already higher year to date heading into the period, with the benchmark notching a 4.3% gain on a median basis, with positive returns 74% of the time, the firm found. On the other hand, in the 15 years when the S & P 500 was lower on the year heading into the period, the index gained just 1.4% on a median basis, with gains 67% of the time. On a historical basis, at least, that suggests the summer months this year could be more challenging for stocks. On Friday, May 23, before the Memorial Day weekend, the S & P 500 closed lower on a year-to-date basis. On Tuesday, however, the broader index was last slightly higher for the year. Other Wall Street firms are already thinking gains could be capped this summer, given that investors won't be gaining any clarity around trade until the July tariff deadline. JPMorgan's Fabio Bassi, the bank's head of cross-asset strategy, said the S & P 500 could "remain rangebound, with limited short-term upside." However, others expect that means equity weakness is contained, especially if the stock market can get past some key hurdles around trade and the U.S. deficit. Canaccord Genuity's Michael Graham said he holds a neutral view on the short-term outlook for stocks, but said he sees "a pathway toward many of these risk factors dissipating later in the summer" if investors can avoid significant tariff volatility.