FORECAST: Just how hot will it get in Germany this summer?
How hot will it get?
According to the German Weather Service (DWD), average temperatures across Germany are expected to be higher each month this summer than the average temperatures seen in the same months from 1991 to 2020.
Having originally estimated the chances of a warmer summer (than the average for the summers between 1991 and 2020) at 81 percent, the DWD has now upgraded the probability to 93 percent.
A report by the Weather Channel also suggests that Germany could see a heat dome event from July, which occurs when a high-pressure system traps hot air over a specific region and often causes significantly higher temperatures and prolonged heat waves.
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While it's important to note that long-term weather forecasts always come with a degree of uncertainty – weather systems are notoriously complex, affected by temperatures, air pressure, humidity, winds, as well as far-away influences like ocean surface temperatures – seasonal climate forecasts do enable meteorologists to determine at least a rough trend for the coming weeks, months, and years.
2025: year of the 'yo-yo summer'?
Following two days of the highest temperatures recorded yet this year, meteorologists are now predicting a period of lower temperatures accompanied by thunderstorms, heavy rain or hail and strong winds in many parts of Germany.
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Meteorologist Dominik Jung recently
suggested
that predictions of hotter and drier conditions through the majority of this summer don't seem to fit the wild weather swings that are currently being seen.
"In my opinion," Jung wrote, "a consistent summer high is not in sight." Instead, he predicts more roller coaster weather conditions and a "yo-yo summer".
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More mosquitos and restrictions on shipping a possibility
Partly as a result of low rainwater levels during the winter, large parts of Germany are already experiencing extreme drought, according to the drought monitor at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research.
In addition to increasing the risk of forest fires, this means that regions in southern Germany – currently experiencing a combination of warmer temperatures and shallow waters – could be in for 'a very mosquito-laden summer," according to Julia Heiermann at the environmental NGO NABU.
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In west Germany meanwhile, a spokesperson for Rhine Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSA) has warned of the possibility of restrictions on shipping on the Rhine. Water levels on some parts of the river, Germany's most important commercial waterway, are at the lowest level seen in decades at this time of year.
While the world as a whole has already warmed by around 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, European land temperatures
have increased
by almost 2°C, according to the latest figures from the European Environment Agency.
Commenting on the figures, Carolina Kyllmann of Clean Energy Wire summed up the implications: 'In addition to heatwaves … persistent low levels of rainfall are becoming more common and, when the rain does come, it is frequently in prolonged downpours, causing flooding. Fires are also becoming more intense and more common.'
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"FIFA is implementing a sound preventative concept at all venues, including cooling breaks in the 30th and 75th minutes in accordance with the relevant protocols," the statement read, while adding that fans may bring reusable plastic bottles into stadiums. "From a broader player welfare perspective, besides having the right to make a maximum of five substitutions, teams can make an additional substitution if a match goes into extra time (regardless of whether the team has used its maximum number of substitutes or not), as well as a concussion substitution. Additionally, all teams have a minimum of three rest days between matches to facilitaterecovery." Many in football, including big-name players, coaches and the global players union, FIFPRO, believe three rest days is not enough for players who, thanks to the introduction of the Club World Cup in what is usually a rest period in the calendar for most teams, are being asked to play and travel more than ever before. Indeed, FIFPRO have started legal proceedings against FIFA, partly on the basis that: "the oversaturated international football calendar risks player safety and wellbeing." Crisp sees changes to scheduling as an easy first step, questioning the logic of playing games at midday when at the Copa America last June an assistant referee collapsed due to the heat during a daytime game in Kansas City. Larger changes to the calendar may well have to follow. "I think FIFA needs to think seriously about revising the protocol to shift kickoff times to safer periods of the day if that's needed. When we saw the forecast for Bayern Munich against Benfica, we could see a week in advance that it was going to be really dangerous temperatures," he said. "But unfortunately, in a rapidly heating world, those kinds of small adaption measures are really just going to be playing around the edges." Despite being asked the question directly, FIFA did not reference what the scenes at the Club World Cup would mean for its future tournaments. Sixteen cities are to host World Cup games in the USA, Canada and Mexico in 2026. However, only five of the stadiums that will be used have roofs to provide some sun protection in a tournament set to be played at a similar time of year. "I think 2026 is almost a perfect storm where FIFA has decided to massively expand the competition, pushing it to 104 matches, which means that it's extremely likely that many of those matches are going to intersect with periods of dangerous weather, Crisp said. "Expanding the competition so heavily obviously also massively increases the amount of flying that's needed as millions of fans join their teams and travel around the whole of North America." The next two men's World Cups are due to be played in Spain, Portugal and Morocco (2030) and then Saudi Arabia (2034). Both of these countries can reasonably be expected to be under similarly hot conditions at the relevant times. The impacts on the environment, the safety of players and the quality of the games are clear to many at the Club World Cup, but FIFA boss Gianni Infantino appears happy enough with their new competition. "Those who are not there, of course, they would love to be there. So, maybe some criticize it a little bit, but it's something new, it's something special, it's something big. It is a real World Cup with the best teams and the best players," he said on Sunday.
