Texas Housing Market Going Backward as Homes Up for Sale Hit 14-Year High

Newsweek

6 hours ago

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Texas home sales reported their weakest performance of the year to date in April, when the spring's homebuying season was supposed to be in full swing, according to a new report.
This is happening even as for-sale inventory has surged above pre-pandemic levels and is now at a 14-year high—proving that more options are not enough to encourage buyers to return to the market in droves.
What Is Going on in the Texas Market?
Data from the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) of the Texas A&M University released earlier this week showed that in April, for-sale inventory in the Lone Star State climbed to its highest level since 2011, when the country was navigating the housing recession.
As of April, the state counted 141,950 active home listings—31.4 percent more than a year earlier and 8 percent more than the previous month. There were also 41 percent more listings than they were in April 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.
This surge in inventory all across Texas is happening in part because many homeowners locked in by lower monthly payments have decided to stop waiting for mortgage rates to fall and are now ready to sell their properties. In part, it is happening because Texas built more new homes than almost any other state in the country over the past five years, with the exception of Florida.
A home for sale in Austin, Texas, on May 22, 2024.
A home for sale in Austin, Texas, on May 22, 2024.In April alone, more than 60,000 new listings entered the Texas market, up 15 percent from a year earlier. But as buyers continue facing elevated mortgage rates, historically high prices and rising costs—including homeowners association fees and insurance premiums—new and existing homes for sale in the state are struggling to go under contract.
April home sales in Texas were down 3.4 percent compared to a year earlier. In parts of the state, they faced even steeper declines. In the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metropolitan area, sales were at 2,554—down 13 percent year over year—while inventory was up by 26.9 percent to 13,061.
In Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, sales were at 8,068—down 5.4 percent compared to a year earlier—while listings totaled 32,812, up 39.4 percent from April 2024. And in Houston-Pasadena-the Woodlands, sales were at 7,818—down 2.8 percent from April 2024—while inventory was up by 37.6 percent, with total listings of 35,214.
More Price Drops in Sight
This imbalance between sellers and buyers in the Texas market is bringing down prices across the state. In April, Austin reported a home price decline of 2.1 percent year over year. The decline was 0.4 percent in Dallas and 1 percent in San Antonio. At the state level, price growth essentially stalled: Home prices were up by a modest 0.3 percent year over year, the weakest gain since August 2023.
While prices were still holding steady in Houston in April, a month later they began falling steeply. In May, the Space City reported a home price drop of 1.5 percent compared to a year earlier, the biggest since September 2023.
"Prices are beginning to tick downward as the market shifts from a seller's market to a buyer's market," Shae Cottar, the chair of the Houston Association of Realtors, told Newsweek.
"The higher interest rates have led to houses sitting on the market longer than they have in recent years. This, combined with the overall economic climate, means buyers are being a little more choosy about the homes they're considering," she said. "This leads to inventory stacking up as well as those homes sitting on the market longer. More inventory and longer days on the market mean sellers are having to renegotiate the starting prices up front now to attract the right buyers."
The state's inventory surge is expected to continue in the coming months, further bringing down prices—especially as more new homes are expected to land on the market. In April, according to TRERC, single-family permits were up 7.6 percent year to date.
In May, Redfin data showed, inventory in Texas was up by 19 percent year over year, for a total of 186,452 listings. There were 49,706 newly listed homes, up 5.9 percent year over year.