Punch Shot: Who wins the 2025 U.S. Open? Winning score under or over par?

NBC Sports

11-06-2025

The 125th U.S. Open begins Thursday at Oakmont Country Club. Can anyone beat Scottie Scheffler? What's the winning score? Who might surprise?
The GolfChannel.com team is on-site in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, and offers up some answers to the pressing questions at the year's third major.
Who wins the 125th U.S. Open?
Rex Hoggard: Scottie Scheffler. Because he's Scottie, the winner of three of his last four starts by an average of 5 ½ shots, and there is too much uncertainty to go with anything but chalk at Oakmont. Scheffler has all the tools to win the U.S. Open, or any other tournament he plays. The only question is if he has the patience for the game's most demanding test.
Ryan Lavner: Scottie Scheffler. You can make a reasonable case for about a dozen other players – Bryson! Rahmbo! Shane! Collin! – but they all come with the caveat that the world No. 1 is off his game. And there's no indication that is or will be the case. Scheffler is the best driver, best iron player (by miles), a top-5 scrambler and, now, an elite putter – coupled with his myriad other gifts, like grit and patience, that make him the quintessential U.S. Open player at a quintessential U.S. Open.
Brentley Romine: Scottie Scheffler. The toughest test in golf and the world's best player. Let's not overthink things. He's long, straight, hits it close, scrambles at an elite level (though slightly worse than his historical numbers) and has been putting it better this year. Scheffler gets his third slam leg on Sunday.
Is the winning score under or over par?
Hoggard: Under par. This version of Oakmont feels somewhere between the '16 U.S. Open, where Dustin Johnson won at 4 under, and the '07 championship, which was won by Angel Cabrera at 5 over. The winner will finish the week under par but it won't be by much.
Lavner: Under. The first few rounds could get spicy, with ideal conditions, sun and wind, to firm up a course that has been doused with historic levels of rain over the past few months. But that's unlikely to last through the weekend, with more rain anticipated, that will allow at least a few players to finish under par at America's toughest course.
Romine: Under par, but barely. The course remains soaked but should dry out before we get more storms on Saturday. The rough is brutal, but someone will hit fairways and score a bunch on the wedge holes to offset the likely healthy dose of bogeys.
Golf Channel Staff,
Rory McIlroy more likely to contend or miss the cut?
Hoggard: Miss cut. It's hard to believe, considering that after he won the Masters many thought his newfound freedom could allow him to go on a truly remarkable major run, but that hasn't been the case. He's fresh off his first missed cut in nearly a year, where he posted his worst round in a non-major at the RBC Canadian Open, and is still searching for the right driver. Not a good combination at Oakmont.
Lavner: Sorry, but the real answer is somewhere in between, similar to how he performed at the PGA (T-47). His driver situation has settled, and his Open record – improving each year since 2019, top-10s all of them – can't be ignored. But his comments over the past few weeks also suggest that he's adrift mentally, and Oakmont will put every player in a bind. Will he have the patience and hunger to twist his way out of it? That's the biggest question this week.
Romine: Miss cut. Especially if he drives the ball like he has since the PGA Championship a few weeks ago. Him revealing he shot 81 here last Monday doesn't help my confidence in him, either.
Who's a dark horse contender (55-1+)?
Hoggard: Brooks Koepka (60-1). There was a time, not that long ago, when Koepka would arrive at the national championship with a nonsensical amount of confidence. Those days aren't here — he hasn't posted a top-10 finish in a major since winning the 2023 PGA Championship — but he was solid in '16 at Oakmont when he tied for 13th, and the game's most demanding layout may just be what brings back 'Major Championship Brooks.'
Lavner: Sam Burns (80-1). Nearly got it done last week in Canada, another strong performance from a player who has ripped off five top-20s in his last six starts. He also has the right combination of power, accuracy and strength to excel at a place like Oakmont, and it doesn't hurt that he's the game's best putter on greens that will baffle nearly everyone in the field. Keegan Bradley (90-1) and Harris English (100-1) are also appealing at their prices.
Romine: Keegan Bradley (90-1). One storyline this weekend will be if the U.S. Ryder Cup captain can close out a U.S. Open title and rocket into contention for an automatic berth. He won't, but he will come awfully close. Si Woo Kim at 110-1 is appetizing as well.