Shortage of water

Express Tribune

16-06-2025

Shortage of water is now posing an existential threat to Pakistan in multiple dimensions. The widespread protests we observed in Sindh a few weeks back regarding six canals are just one example. The more serious dimension of the issue can be observed by Pakistan's unequivocal declaration that India's implementation of its recent absolutely illegal intimation of putting the Indus Waters treaty in abeyance would be considered as an act of war.
Both the above reactions make complete sense, when we realise that per capita freshwater availability in Pakistan has declined from 5,260 cubic metres in 1951 to around 900 cubic metres and is projected to decrease to 560 cubic metres by 2050.
What further accentuates its significance is the fact that, while the global average for the annual utilisation of freshwater is 70% for agriculture, though for Europe it is only 40%, in Pakistan it is 93%. The disproportionate consumption reflects nothing else except wastage. Also, its alarmingly diminishing availability for the industry can prove to be the biggest choke-point for industrial growth.
Agricultural use
While rising ambient has increased water evaporation and transpiration, our cropping strategy has proven to be a more potent culprit. Sugarcane and cotton alone account for at least one-third of the aggregate consumption by the agricultural sector. What adds to the injury is that Pakistan's crop water productivity for sugarcane is around 53.5% lower than the global average. For rice, with one-third of the global average, it is even worse.
Irrigated agriculture, which is generally considered to be a luxury vis-a-vis rain-fed farming, provides 90% of Pakistan's food, while the global average is 40%. Despite the operational convenience it provides, we have failed to utilise it effectively so far. Irrigation system in Pakistan, rather, is a major source of wastage. Some 25% of water is lost till the farm gate, followed by the loss of 30% of the remaining water till its application at the crop root.
The ingress of poor farming practices is so pervasive that it has left no aspect unaffected. For instance, almost half of upper Sindh's irrigated land is now affected with water logging and salinity. While the increase in ambient is aggravating the issue of salinity, seepage from unlined watercourses and cultivation through water inundation keep on making more land hostage to water-logging.
In my view, the current system of billing the water use in agriculture, called Abiana system, majorly contributes to the above rampant utter extravagance of water. Instead of per unit usage, it is based on the area being cultivated, thus providing least incentive for the user to save it. Also, the state succeeds in recovering only a fraction of what is billed. Thus, what is ultimately collected barely covers 10% of the maintenance costs for water channels.
The "water use efficiency", ie, the value created in USD/cubic metres of water used, is the most common yardstick for assessing a country's performance regarding its water economy. As per the UN records, for Pakistan, China, Israel and India, its overall value, respectively, stands at 1.84, 31.21, 128.94 and 3.13, while for agriculture for the same countries in the same order, it stands at 0.40, 2.51, 2.06 and 0.49. For Switzerland, the overall value is 432 and for agriculture it is 5.95.
The numbers say everything about the steep uphill journey required to be traversed by us. No wonder that our foreign exchange spending on food-related imports has already grown by around five times during the past 20 years.
Industrial use
Rapid urbanisation is increasing the per capita demand for freshwater while increasing urban waste continues to pollute it. As a result, the size of the global water and wastewater treatment market is expected to reach twice of its current size of $350 billion by 2034; a reflection of the growth of circular economies.
In Pakistan, we have so far not observed any such signs. This is despite the fact that out of the total industrial consumption, 49% goes to the textile sector and only few textile manufacturers treat their effluent before dumping it. In Faisalabad, the textile hub of the country, around 3.6 million cubic metres of effluent water is disposed of without treatment into Chenab and Ravi.
In the above backdrop, for purchasing textiles, the EU and the US regulations are more and more focusing on mechanisms for establishing products' traceability. This includes a regime of Digital Product Passport vide which providing detailed data on the sustainability of each product is essential. Most of these regulatory filters would be fully effective by 2030 and their non-compliance can prove cataclysmic for our economy – when 60% of our textile exports are made to the US and Europe.
What is to be done
From the above observations and analysis, we can observe similar disregard for the real economic value of this natural resource, as we adopted for decades towards natural gas till we had frittered away most of its proven reserves.
The crisis of water is definitely more fundamental. In view of the same, the following steps seem essential: 1) Uninterrupted flow of water, in line with the Indus Waters Treaty, from India to Pakistan can only be ensured through effective diplomacy. This would, however, remain unsustainable, if not complemented with bilateral trade and economic relations with India and other critical countries capable of leveraging their influence in Pakistan's favour when required. The same, in turn, requires industrial development for generating value-added products for exports. 2) Kabul River contributes tangibly to the economy of K-P. Thus, to ensure a sustained and judicious use of its water, a treaty with Afghanistan needs to be initiated. 3) The present unit cost of $0.08/cubic metres of water for the textile sector is the lowest in the region; thereby, generating an attitude of indifference towards its wastage. This requires necessary price adjustment and stringent regulatory measures for wastewater treatment and water conservation including a system of penalties and rewards around the principle of circular economy. Similarly, for agriculture, volume-based water metering needs to be introduced with Abiana indexed to the same as well as the farm size and corresponding income. The current petty recovery of Abiana is a shame vis-a-vis the palatial palaces in which our feudals (owners of at least 65% of the agricultural land) live. 4) Integrated economics of water guzzling crops like cotton, sugarcane and rice versus their replacement with less water-intensive crops need to be reviewed. 5) Replacement of current practice of crop inundation with drip-feeding is imperative. 6) Investment in the wastewater treatment industry needs to be encouraged.
It goes without saying that like many other sectors, we have burnt all the margins in this respect as well; hence, delay in the implementation of the above measures is not an option.
The writer is a petroleum engineer and an oil and gas management professional