California study finds ER visits spiking with heat, but overall deaths falling from lack of cold
Emergency room visits in California increased in a linear fashion as daily temperatures escalated over the course of a recent decade, from 2006 to 2017, according to the study, published on Wednesday in Science Advances. But neither hospital admissions or related-death exhibited the same unbending climb.
Although extreme heat and extreme cold alike cause more people to die, illness rates tend to increase as the weather becomes hotter, and they tend to be lower in colder conditions, the study authors explained.
In other words: Emergency visits are still likely to surge as the planet warms, but temperature-related deaths as a whole may decline thanks to the ongoing disappearance of extreme cold days.
The researchers — led by Carlos Gould at the University of California San Diego — analyzed 123 million zip code-level emergency department visits, 45 million such hospital admissions and 2.9 million county-level death records between 2006 and 2017. They also compiled daily temperature records from 1,500 zip codes in 56 California counties for the same period.
Over time, they observed that the zip codes experienced an increase in emergency room visits: from an average of 1,936 per 100,000 people every month to 2,531 in 2017.
During the same window, both hospitalization rates and deaths showed a U-curve for temperature — exhibiting unsurprising increases during extreme cold and hot periods.
The scientists calculated an increase in emergency department visits California due to changes in temperatures by 2050 — an additional 0.46 percent, or 1.5 million excess visits, in comparison to today.
At that point, related hospitalizations and deaths will both likely decline, by 0.18 percent and 0.43 percent, respectively, or 244,000 fewer hospitalizations and 53,500 fewer deaths, according to the study.
By 2100, the researchers projected a 0.76 percent increase in emergency department visits, a 0.38 percent decline in hospital admissions and a 0.77 plunge in deaths due to temperature changes.
As far as economics are concerned, the scientists calculated that by 2050, emergency room visits would cost California an additional $52 million, while temperature-related death costs would decrease by $30 billion and hospitalization costs by $53 million.
Going forward, the researchers called for further analysis into the morbidity and mortality — illness and death — impacts of temperature variation within populations, noting that specific effects may differ considerably among age groups.
'A very broad range of morbidity outcomes will likely be affected by a warming climate and that future increases in heat extremes will increase both morbidity and mortality,' the authors stated.
And with a much warmer future likely ahead, the researchers questioned just how long the decreases in death related to cold could truly outweigh the increases related to excessive warmth.
'Our results suggest that beneficial impact of declining cold extremes for mortality — an expected substantial benefit of climate change in much of the world — will be offset, at least partially, by increases in morbidity at those temperatures,' they added.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
San Francisco Chronicle
5 hours ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Thousands of DACA recipients in California to lose health insurance
More than 2,300 Californians enrolled in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, program will lose their health insurance next month due to a change in federal policy, state officials announced Thursday. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services recently revised its rules to exclude DACA recipients from the definition of 'lawfully present' under the Affordable Care Act. As a result, they are no longer eligible for coverage through federal health insurance programs. Covered California, the state's health insurance marketplace, said it will terminate coverage for affected enrollees on Aug. 31. 'Covered California is deeply disheartened by the updated rule issued by this federal administration, which targets DACA recipients who are working to provide for their families and secure access to essential health insurance,' said Jessica Altman, the agency's executive director. 'The decision is deeply unfair to hard-working, tax-paying individuals in California who trusted that they would have health insurance for 2025, only to have it stripped away eight months later.' The change is part of a series of recent actions by the Trump administration aimed at restricting benefits for DACA recipients, also known as Dreamers. Earlier this summer, the Department of Health and Human Services barred them from the federal healthcare marketplace, and the Department of Education launched investigations into colleges offering them financial aid. Covered California said it is reaching out to all impacted individuals and providing guidance on alternative coverage options, including Medi-Cal, employer-based plans and private insurance. Legal aid organizations and immigrant advocacy groups are also offering support. The policy shift has intensified fear and uncertainty among many DACA recipients, most of whom have lived in the U.S. since childhood and remain ineligible for permanent legal status.
Yahoo
17 hours ago
- Yahoo
Hotter summers could be making us sicker in unexpected ways
As the earth experiences hotter and hotter summers, new research using data from California emergency departments shows that the heat may be making us sicker than we know, and in ways we may not anticipate. A study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances tracked emergency department visits and fatalities in the state over the course of 11 years and found that while deaths increased both in cold and hot temperatures, especially among older adults, emergency room visits steadily increased as temperatures did - particularly among young children. Subscribe to The Post Most newsletter for the most important and interesting stories from The Washington Post. The findings underscore the impact that a hotter planet has on lives, health and medical infrastructure. While scientists have spent decades covering how extreme heat and cold lead to death, 'we have a relatively poor understanding of whether those relationships are the same for morbidity - rates of disease and poor health,' said Carlos Gould, the paper's lead author and an environmental health scientist at the University of California San Diego. The focus on fatalities could be because of how deadly heat is - it's the most lethal form of extreme weather. High temperatures have been linked to cardiovascular deaths, chronic kidney disease mortality and respiratory failure. Heat can put undue stress on organs: The heart pumps faster to get blood flow to the skin; kidneys work harder to preserve the body's water. Those with preexisting conditions are more at risk in hot weather. The cold kills more people than heat does. As Earth warms, some projections indicate that temperature-related fatalities could decrease, but the effects would be unequal: Hotter and poorer countries would see an increase in deaths, while colder, wealthier countries would see a decrease. Some researchers contend it's a fraught comparison to begin with. 'It remains problematic to trade off mortality and morbidity from hot versus cold temperature extremes,' said Kristie Ebi, a professor at the Center for Health and Global Environment at the University of Washington. 'People are not fungible. The goal of public health is to prevent as much morbidity and mortality as possible.' Gould said deaths are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to temperature's effects on society. Between 2006 and 2017, more people in California visited emergency rooms as temperatures went up, further burdening public health systems as the world got hotter. 'It is helpful to have more detailed analyses of temperature-morbidity relationships, to help identify interventions that could decrease hospitalizations during heat waves,' said Ebi. Gould added that while he was reluctant to generalize beyond the data from California, its rates of mortality to extreme temperatures were in line with those from across the country. The study found that as temperatures increased, more people visited emergency rooms for illnesses including those linked to poison, respiratory symptoms and nervous system problems. Data also showed that children under 5 visited emergency rooms at a higher rate than any other age group. 'Hot days can worsen our health far before they lead to deaths,' said Gould. 'And it can be a large range of things that we get sick from.' In some cases, it's difficult to know how these illnesses are linked to heat, said Robert Meade a research fellow at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health who studies heat's impacts on the human body. It could be an error in how the data was analyzed, or it could further highlight the challenge of anticipating heat's indirect effects on our health. For example, researchers cautioned against using the data to draw a direct link between hotter temperatures and more poison-related illness. 'The mechanisms might not be clear to us, but it still could reflect a very complex interaction between heat and people's behavior that causes this rise,' Meade added. Ebi also noted that the analyses didn't consider other factors, such as wildfires, which are drivers of cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses and mortality, especially in California. 'Climate change is increasing the numbers of wildfires, which could have influenced the results because wildfires are often associated with hot days,' she said. She also pointed out that the data ends in 2017, which means it missed many large, extreme heat waves over the last 7½ years that could have altered the way we respond to heat exposure. Gould hopes the data will help public health officials broaden their understanding of who needs to be protected during heat waves. 'Deaths are of course the most severe outcome, and protecting deaths is one of the single largest priorities of public health,' he said. 'But these illnesses can affect kids, working families, reduce our productivity and strain our hospitals and communities.' 'Even when heat doesn't kill,' said Gould, 'it hurts a lot.' - - - Kevin Crowe contributed to this report. Related Content Kamala Harris will not run for California governor, opening door for 2028 run The U.S. military is investing in this Pacific island. So is China. In a stressful human world, 'mermaiding' gains popularity in D.C. area Solve the daily Crossword
The Hill
a day ago
- The Hill
California study finds ER visits spiking with heat, but overall deaths falling from lack of cold
Californians are poised to become sicker in a future marked by climate-fueled warming, but they may also be less likely to die from temperature-related events as extreme cold days become rarer, a new study has found. Emergency room visits in California increased in a linear fashion as daily temperatures escalated over the course of a recent decade, from 2006 to 2017, according to the study, published on Wednesday in Science Advances. But neither hospital admissions or related-death exhibited the same unbending climb. Although extreme heat and extreme cold alike cause more people to die, illness rates tend to increase as the weather becomes hotter, and they tend to be lower in colder conditions, the study authors explained. In other words: Emergency visits are still likely to surge as the planet warms, but temperature-related deaths as a whole may decline thanks to the ongoing disappearance of extreme cold days. The researchers — led by Carlos Gould at the University of California San Diego — analyzed 123 million zip code-level emergency department visits, 45 million such hospital admissions and 2.9 million county-level death records between 2006 and 2017. They also compiled daily temperature records from 1,500 zip codes in 56 California counties for the same period. Over time, they observed that the zip codes experienced an increase in emergency room visits: from an average of 1,936 per 100,000 people every month to 2,531 in 2017. During the same window, both hospitalization rates and deaths showed a U-curve for temperature — exhibiting unsurprising increases during extreme cold and hot periods. The scientists calculated an increase in emergency department visits California due to changes in temperatures by 2050 — an additional 0.46 percent, or 1.5 million excess visits, in comparison to today. At that point, related hospitalizations and deaths will both likely decline, by 0.18 percent and 0.43 percent, respectively, or 244,000 fewer hospitalizations and 53,500 fewer deaths, according to the study. By 2100, the researchers projected a 0.76 percent increase in emergency department visits, a 0.38 percent decline in hospital admissions and a 0.77 plunge in deaths due to temperature changes. As far as economics are concerned, the scientists calculated that by 2050, emergency room visits would cost California an additional $52 million, while temperature-related death costs would decrease by $30 billion and hospitalization costs by $53 million. Going forward, the researchers called for further analysis into the morbidity and mortality — illness and death — impacts of temperature variation within populations, noting that specific effects may differ considerably among age groups. 'A very broad range of morbidity outcomes will likely be affected by a warming climate and that future increases in heat extremes will increase both morbidity and mortality,' the authors stated. And with a much warmer future likely ahead, the researchers questioned just how long the decreases in death related to cold could truly outweigh the increases related to excessive warmth. 'Our results suggest that beneficial impact of declining cold extremes for mortality — an expected substantial benefit of climate change in much of the world — will be offset, at least partially, by increases in morbidity at those temperatures,' they added.
