Egypt warns of regional escalations over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Egypt Independent

27-05-2025

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty revealed that the current stalemate on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis could lead to renewed tensions in the region, given the escalating dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia and the failure to reach an agreement.
During his participation in the US-Egypt Policy Leaders Forum held by the American Chamber of Commerce in Cairo, the Egyptian Foreign Minister assured that Egypt is working to maintain stability, and referred to several points of tension in the region, including incidents in Sudan and the situation in the Gaza Strip.
Egypt suspended talks with Ethiopia over the GERD more than a year ago due to Addis Ababa's intransigence in the negotiations and its attempts to buy time to complete the dam.
Rising water tensions
The GERD is one of the most controversial issues in the Horn of Africa, a source of ongoing tension between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan since Ethiopia began its construction on the Blue Nile in 2011.
The Ethiopian dam, the largest hydropower project in Africa, aims to generate more than 5,000 megawatts of electricity, doubling Ethiopia's energy production and providing electricity to nearly 60 percent of its population, which suffers from energy shortages.
The dam raises concerns for Egypt and Sudan, which rely heavily on the Nile's waters, as the Blue Nile provides approximately 85 percent of the Nile's total flow.
Egypt, which relies on the Nile for over 98 percent of its water needs, considers the dam an existential threat to its water security. Cairo fears that filling and operating the dam without a binding agreement will reduce its water share, potentially impacting agriculture, drinking water supplies, and the economy as a whole.
Stagnant talks
In September 2023, Ethiopia announced the completion of the fourth and final phase of filling the dam's reservoir, sparking fierce Egyptian protests describing the move as 'illegal.' Egypt also expressed concern that Ethiopia could use the dam for political purposes, such as controlling water flow as a leverage.
Ethiopia views the dam as a vital development project to eradicate poverty and provide electricity to its population of more than 123 million, nearly half of whom lack access to electricity.
The Ethiopian government has asserted that the dam will not cause significant harm to the riparian states and that it is committed to the principles of equitable utilization of the Nile's waters, in accordance with the 2015 Declaration of Principles.
However, Ethiopia has refused to sign legally binding agreements specifying how the dam will be managed during droughts.
Negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan stalled in late 2023 due to what Egypt described as 'Ethiopia's intransigence' and its refusal to accept compromises that safeguard the interests of the three countries.