How can a new regime in Iran be in India's interest? Yet Delhi said little: Bruno Maçães

Time of India

2 days ago

Bruno Maçães
A former secretary of state for European Affairs in Portugal, Bruno Maçães wears many hats — he advises global corporations on geopolitical and technological risk, is a member of the
European Council on Foreign Relations
, and has written books on the new world order as well as China's belt and road strategy. In an interview with
Sunday Times
, he argues that India must take a more proactive approach to securing its strategic interests.
A truce has been called with the US, Israel and Iran all claiming victory. How do you assess these competing narratives?
Israel was fundamentally interested in bringing the regime down. US president
Trump
showed considerable ability in how he avoided being dragged into a prolonged war most of his supporters were against. At the same time, no fundamental problem was addressed. Iran may even feel this is the right moment to pursue a nuclear weapon. The main obstacle in the past was political and may have been removed now that
Ayatollah Khamenei
has lost influence. He has consistently opposed a final decision on weaponising nuclear power. Regime change could lead to a military dictatorship in Iran and that would move it much closer to China. For India, this might well be a disaster and my conversations with friends in Delhi actually showed there was some awareness of the risk. But India needs to be more active in pursuing its strategic interests.
In this multipolar world, India has had to do a balancing act with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East. How successful has this strategy been?
India needs to develop a vision on what kind of principles and priorities it has and then apply those principles to ongoing crises. I consider India a civilization state but a civilization state needs to offer an organising theory of world order. How can it be in India's interest for Iran to be destroyed or for a new regime aligned with China and Pakistan to take root there? And yet we heard very little from Delhi in opposition to the wild adventures that were openly being discussed in Israel and Washington.
On Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India, a country without territorial ambitions of its own, should be more critical of territorial invasions. I would have liked a stronger position and a stronger role against the return of the old European imperialism as represented by Russian president
Putin
.
You have described the Israel attack on Iran as 'neoconservatism on steroids.' Can you explain?
The old neoconservatism was about regime change. I think this is a more radical form of neoconservatism where the goal is regime destruction or collapse but there is no vision of what will replace it. Over the past two decades, Israel and the US have created a landscape of destruction in West Asia, all the way from Egypt to Pakistan. Syria is only now starting to recover, and a lot depends on whether it manages to get back on its feet and the wider region starts to recover. Unfortunately, Israel seems to believe the best future for itself is to become a fortified garrison amidst a landscape of destruction. There is no future in this vision, not even for Israel itself.
I
n your latest book 'World Builders', you argue that geopolitics is no longer about controlling territory but about technology. How do you see China's DeepSeek, and the fears in Europe that Trump could weaponise the tech dominance of the US?
Europe has fallen behind. We need to realise technology is not above geopolitics. We are becoming more dependent on the US and that comes at the cost of our prosperity and independence. Regulation is not enough. In order to regulate technology, you first need to create it. We made a mistake 30 years ago to think it did not matter whether the main internet platforms in Europe were American or European. That was a tragic mistake. China did not make the same mistake, and now they have strong indigenous capabilities as shown by DeepSeek. Now, we find ourselves in a position of extreme dependency. Did you see how Nato's secretary general, who is European, referred to Europeans as 'they'? It reminded me of those nawabs in India who were so aligned with the East India Company that they referred to Indians as 'they'. In both cases, military dependence led to a kind of mental dependence.
How do you think India will fare in this race for technology?
Already, India is the only real rival to China in the race to control and deploy solar energy. Europe and America are out of this competition. I suspect in other areas too the contest for technological dominance will increasingly be between China and India. Right now, I think India is looking for a model. American-type financialisation will not work for India, but neither will the party leadership system of China. When you need to move fast in developing ideas and implementing them, the most important thing is a political model that fits your circumstances. Ultimately, India needs a political model that aligns with its culture and history which is the topic of my next book. A model is also necessary to organise discovery. What will be the technologies of the future? No one knows. But we know that it all starts with organised discovery. We already know that whoever masters solar energy and artificial intelligence will rule the world, but the details will decide everything.
Can you tell us what your impressions were after your recent India visit, and what your next book will be focusing on?
I spent two months this year visiting Ayodhya, the Mahakumbh and other places in India, as well as meeting many people and having intense discussions. My book will deal with the revival of Hindu civilization. I am spending a lot of hours reading the complete works of
Vivekananda
, Aurobindo, Coomaraswamy. These are writers of unmatched power but also complexity. I want to discuss the terms of this revival and also, what the Indian case can teach us about the fundamental political entity of the future: the civilization state, that is a state that is neither liberal nor national but based on a distinct civilization, a view about human life and society. I hope to be able to travel for several months across India next year to present these ideas.