Trump says 50-50 odds of trade deal with EU
President Donald Trump gave even odds for reaching a trade deal with the European Union as he left Washington to begin his trip to Scotland – with a path to a solution where the Europeans 'buy down' the tariffs he is imposing. 'I would say that we have a fifty-fifty chance,' Trump said, amid reports that the two sides are narrowing in on a possible deal.
'Maybe less than that,' he hedged. 'But a fifty-fifty chance of making a deal with the EU. And It will be a deal where they have to buy down their tariffs. Because they're right now at 30 percent,' Trump said, referencing the tariff set to take effect by the new 'doomsday' August 1 deadline unless there is an agreement. 'They'll have to buy them down - maybe. Or they can leave them the way they are.'
Trump, using a favorite negotiating tactic, described his counterparts as desperate. 'But they want to make a deal very badly. I would have said we have a 25 percent chance with Japan and they kept coming back and we made a deal,' Trump said.
He was referencing the deal he announced days ago, which has Japan paying a 15 percent tariff, lower than the threatened 25 percent tariff, while opening markets to U.S. exporters. Trump and his top negotiators continue to gush about the Japanese investment – while describing it in terms different than what is coming out of Tokyo.
'Don't forget Japan's putting up $550 billion,' Trump said Friday. 'That's a lot of money. And also paying tariffs. The biggest part of the Japan deal and maybe we get this with EU maybe we don't is we have the right to go in and trade. They've totally opened Japan just for the U.S.' Trump made the comments as he left the White House at the start of a five-day trip that will have him visit his two Scottish golf courses – and meet with British PM Keir Starmer to try to 'refine' an existing U.S.-UK trade deal.
He had earlier escalated his demands with the EU in mid-July by raising the tariff threat. In his Truth Social post announcing the deal, Trump said: 'Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 billion dollars into the United States, which will receive 90 percent of the profits.'
Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy research at Piper Sandler, told CNBC that Japanese officials are 'describing it differently' and 'see the $550 billion figure as a cap and inclusive of government loan guarantees.' But Commerce Secretary Lutnick has been describing it as an investment kitty that Trump can personally direct to ramp up industrial production – with no mention of a legislative role.
'This is literally the Japanese government giving Donald Trump $550 billion, and says: Go fix whatever you need to fix,' he told host Laura Ingraham on Fox News. 'Donald Trump can take the Japanese money and say 'let's go build a factory. Let's get an American company to operate it, we'll lease them the factory. They don't make much money - so what. That's the beauty of this deal,' he said.
As he calls for the Europeans to 'buy down' tariffs, Trump may have been emboldened by other moves besides the Japan deal. On Thursday, Columbia University reached a settlement with the Justice Department where it will pay $200 million and a civil rights investigation will be dropped.
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