Expect race for Ireland's next president to be a sprint, not a marathon
It seems pretty clear now that the political calculation at Leinster House - across most parties - is that a summer Presidential campaign is not in their interests.
Back in 2011, then Independent candidate and long-standing Senator David Norris was out-of-the-traps as early as March.
Fourteen years later, voters probably won't know the first definitive candidate until July and the full slate until September.
Why will it take so long to get a definitive candidate?
The fact is that while the office of President is a substantial one, its constitutional power is limited to such dry matters as assessing whether or not legislation should be referred to the Supreme Court.
Accordingly, previous races for the Áras have been more about the candidate rather than any policy which they may seek to advance.
Such campaigns have ranged from personalised and bruising to brutal.
This could explain why it is only now that the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader is taking "soundings" on possible candidates, adding that it will be August before matters are finalised.
Candidates might be "wary", Micheál Martin suggested.
In such a political vacuum, it's not surprising that new names of possible Fianna Fáil candidates continue to pop up - the latest being former SDLP leader, Colum Eastwood.
The cautious approach being adopted by the Taoiseach is echoed by the Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris.
He suggested to RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne that while the presidency is a prestigious role, the gruelling nature of the campaign is unpalatable.
Fine Gael's nominations are slated to close in mid-July.
Former EU Commissioner Mairéad McGuinness and current Ireland South MEP Seán Kelly are regularly mentioned as Fine Gael candidates.
Party sources suggest that whoever is the winner, it's unlikely their campaign will be in full tilt until the following month.
For its part, Sinn Féin is consulting with its membership about whether to contest the election alone or join a left alliance.
It has the electoral numbers to nominate its own candidate, with Belfast lawyer and MP John Finucane often being talked about.
Alternatively, Sinn Féin could opt to join forces with Labour, the Social Democrats, and Greens to nominate a candidate, Senator Frances Black and Deputy Catherine Connolly have both been suggested.
Independent presidential candidates have had impactful campaigns in the past, for example Seán Gallagher, Peter Casey, and Dana Rosemary Scallon.
However, the method they used to land their nominations - securing the backing of four local authorities - will be a more difficult task this time out.
The three big beasts of Irish politics - Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin - are highly unlikely to give the nod to either of the two candidates who've declared so far: Peter Casey and the former MMA athlete Conor McGregor.
As it stands, the presidential campaign will not get into full swing until late August.
And then it's only a matter of weeks before the electorate has to decide who will be Ireland's 10th Úachtarán na hÉireann.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
RTÉ News
12 minutes ago
- RTÉ News
Tariffs aren't good news but it could have been much worse
While the crucial US EU trade deal announced this weekend does bring certainty for businesses, there are significant drawbacks. Fundamentally, tariffs are negative for trade. The US is a significant export market for Ireland, and many sectors now face duties of 15% which did not exist last year. The biggest issue is pharmaceuticals, which are the largest Irish export to the US, valued at €44bn in 2024. In recent months US President Donald Trump had threatened enormous duties on drugs imported by America. He had ordered a national security investigation of the pharmaceutical sector. Last night, Tánaiste Simon Harris said his understanding was that after the investigation concludes the maximum tariff which could be imposed would be 15%. So, while the threat of more damaging duties is averted, pharmaceuticals made in Ireland may well face 15% tariffs in future, up from zero at present. Another key sector for Ireland is the manufacture of computer chips. Like pharmaceuticals it has been subject to a separate investigation by the Trump administration and faced the possibility of punitive tariffs, but it too could face a 15% tariff after the investigation ends. Last night, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen said there was no decision yet regarding spirits exported to the US. This is critically important to Ireland's whiskey industry which has already seen several recent closures. There had been speculation that sector could have been part of a zero-for-zero tariff arrangement, but that is not yet agreed. Another important area for Ireland is aircraft leasing. Ms Von Der Leyen said last night that aviation would be part of a tariff-free arrangement. For other EU countries the massive duty of 27.5% which was imposed on European cars now falls to 15%. Some existing tariffs will be folded into that baseline 15%, meaning it would be an all-in tariff. For example, it is expected to include the existing "most favoured nation" duties of 4.8% which exist currently under World Trade Organization rules. The fact there is a deal at all avoids the threat of a prolonged tit-for-tat trade war. It means businesses can plan, investments can be made, and job-creating projects can proceed. But exporters are already seeking Government support as they navigate the new reality of the Trump administration's tariffs. The EU-US agreement is not a trade deal in the usual sense. Normally these pacts are negotiated over years and culminate in a document running to hundreds of pages. What was announced yesterday was the framework of a deal with much detail yet to be finalised. Yesterday wasn't the end of the negotiations, but it was a milestone.
Irish Daily Mirror
3 hours ago
- Irish Daily Mirror
Taoiseach welcomes trade deal between EU and US
Taoiseach Micheál Martin has welcomed a deal between the European Union and the United States, which will see a 15% tariff on most EU imports to the US. The deal was reached during a meeting between Donald Trump and the president of the European Commission on Sunday. The US president met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to hammer out the final details on the trading relationship between Europe and the US. Reacting to the deal, Mr Martin said the agreement was very welcome. 'It brings clarity and predictability to the trading relationship between the EU and the US – the biggest in the world,' the Fianna Fail leader said. 'That is good for businesses, investors and consumers. It will help protect many jobs in Ireland. 'The negotiations to get us to this point have been long and complex, and I would like to thank both teams for their patient work. 'We will now study the detail of what has been agreed, including its implications for businesses exporting from Ireland to the US, and for different sectors operating here. 'The agreement is a framework and there will be more detail to be fleshed out in the weeks and months ahead.' Mr Martin said the higher tariffs will have an impact on trade between the EU and the US, which will make it more expensive and more challenging. US President Donald Trump enjoyed a round of golf before his meeting with Ursula von der Leyen 'However, it also creates a new era of stability that can hopefully contribute to a growing and deepening relationship between the EU and the US, which is important not just for the EU and the US, but for the global economy,' he added. 'Given the very real risk that existed for escalation and for the imposition of punitively high tariffs, this news will be welcomed by many.' The deal was also welcomed by deputy Irish premier and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Simon Harris, who said it brings clarity to businesses. 'While we have yet to see the detail, I welcome that an agreement has been announced by Commission President von der Leyen and US President Trump,' Mr Harris said in a statement. 'A deal provides a measure of much-needed certainty for Irish, European and American businesses who together represent the most integrated trading relationship in the world. Ireland makes a key contribution to this with the Ireland-US economic relationship valued at more than one trillion euros. 'The US had made clear, and this has been replicated in other recent agreements, which the US has reached with other countries, that a baseline tariff was always going to be part of the outcome. 'I have always stressed that tariffs are damaging and will have a negative impact on companies exporting to the US. 'While Ireland regrets that the baseline tariff of 15% is included in the agreement, it is important that we now have more certainty on the foundations for the EU-US trade relationship, which is essential for jobs, growth and investment. 'President von der Leyen described this as 15% tariffs across the board, all-inclusive.' He said further detail is needed around pharma, aviation and other sectors. Mr Harris said he will examine the details of the agreement over the coming days to establish the effect on Irish businesses and the economy. Earlier, EU commissioner Michael McGrath said the meeting was a 'significant and decisive moment'. Mr McGrath, EU Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, the Rule of Law and Consumer Protection, said it would involve substantive negotiations between both sides. 'It's a significant moment, we hope a decisive moment, and it builds on an enormous amount of work that has been done over quite a period of time,' Mr McGrath said ahead of the meeting. 'President Trump invited President von der Leyen to Scotland for a meeting. 'This follows on the back of intensive negotiations over a number of months. He added: 'It is not a case of turning up and signing on the dotted line. There will be a real discussion that will happen, and it will take on a dynamic of its own, and let's see what happens over the course of the afternoon. 'But from the EU's point of view, we are determined to do all that we can to get a deal for European businesses, because we recognise the cost of uncertainty. 'It manifests in trade and in investment decisions and ultimately in employment and of course tariffs can cost consumers at the end of the day. 'We want a good deal. We have negotiated hard, and we're at a point now where hopefully the two leaders can today bring it to a concluding phase.' Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news from the Irish Mirror direct to your inbox: Sign up here.
Irish Times
4 hours ago
- Irish Times
EU-US deal good for Ireland as it averts trade war for now and gives businesses vital sense of certainty
The agreement of an outline trade deal between the EU and the US has one main advantage – it avoids an imminent tariffs war between the two sides which could have got nasty. US president Donald Trump had threatened 30 per cent tariffs on EU imports from August 1st and the EU had drawn up a list of US goods on which it would impose tariffs of its own. This could have developed into a tit-for-tat battle. Now, the gunfight is off and the trade weapons are back in their holsters, at least for a while. Ireland relies heavily on US investment and trade and stood to be particularly exposed if a trade war broke out. Such a scenario could risk drawing big digital tech companies with large operations here into the fallout. READ MORE Peace has broken out, but Trump's unpredictable nature means dangers and uncertainties lie ahead. Businesses in most sectors will, for now at least, know what they are dealing with and that has a value it itself, as doubt had started to damage investment. What about the terms of the deal? The 15 per cent tariff is well above the average of just under 5 per cent which applied on all EU imports to the US before Trump came to office. However, Irish businesses have been faced with a range of different tariff levels and much will depend on the small print of what was agreed. It is worth remembering that Trump imposed 10 per cent tariffs on top of existing ones after 'Liberation Day' and these remain in place. So, Irish companies will be calculating how the 15 per cent compares to the current position – and also to what applied before Trump came to power. Indications on Sunday night were that the 15 per cent would be 'all-inclusive' rather than adding to pre-existing tariffs. If that is the case, it would be welcome. While no details have been circulated, the EU said there would be 'zero for zero' deals discussed in some areas. Drinks or agri-food could be in the frame here, which would be positive for Ireland. One sector which is vital to Ireland is the pharma sector and there was some confusion as to how it would be affected. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said this would be covered by the 15 per cent cap on reciprocal tariffs. However, the Trump administration is examining key sectors like pharma and semiconductors – seen as vital to national security – under a separate process known as the section 232 studies. It may be possible that higher tariffs on EU pharma exports to the US could yet emerge from this. Trump spoke again on Sunday about his determination to bring pharma investment back home for security reasons. And he has spoken before about the possibility of using tariffs to achieve this. Other policy options would also be open to Trump to try to get pharma firms to relocate away from countries like Ireland. The generally better mood between the EU and US may help in areas like this, but dangers remain for Ireland. In the wider picture, Trump is building in baseline tariffs of 15 per cent for many countries, with his key goal being to raise revenue for the US exchequer. But this will hit those who rely on imports into the US, too, affecting businesses and consumers and pushing up inflation. That is the price of tariffs. For now, though, Trump is happy for the US to pay it.
