A's Shortstop Jacob Wilson AL All Star Starter, But Is His Bat Real?
Every year there are interesting breakthrough performers in the All Star starting lineups. When all is said and done and one day fans look back at the 2025 starters, the name Jacob Wilson will stand out. Bobby Witt Jr. was the 2nd place finisher in the 2024 AL MVP race, and the presumptive favorite for the All Star nod moving forward, with other luminaries like the Orioles' Gunnar Henderson in hot pursuit. Now it can be argued whether Wilson deserves the start, but that's just semantics at this point. He's an All Star on merit.
But how good is he really, and more directly is his bat worthy of the gaudy .335-.377-.468 line he carried out of Sunday's game? He's in a sense the American League counterpart to the Padres' Luis Arraez in many respects, a contact-hitting counterweight to the high K rates and power arms that have defined the game in the recent past.
Arraez is one point of reference, but another perhaps even more interesting one is Jacob's father, Jack. The elder Wilson was a glove-first shortstop with tremendous hand-eye coordination. He hit .265-.306-.366 for his career with only 619 Ks in 5339 career plate appearances. He was content to spray the ball around to all fields, but could drive a mistake for distance. He never won a Gold Glove award but could have won multiple times. The younger Wilson has carried forward a number of his traits - he's not quite the same level of defender, but his hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills appear to be even better.
Wilson doesn't walk (5.6% rate) or whiff (7.3%) very often - the ball is going to be put in play when he comes to the plate. This type of offensive player had become nearly extinct until Luis Arraez showed up a few years ago. The Padre infield has even lower walk (4.7%) and especially whiff (2.5%) rates this season. Beyond their shared propensity to put the ball in play almost every time up there are key similarities and differences between the two players.
Neither hits the ball very hard. Wilson has a slightly higher overall average exit velocity by 84.9 to 84.3 mph, over a full standard deviation lower than league average. Neither has an average fly ball, liner or grounder average exit speed over a humble 87.9 mph (Arraez' average liner exit speed). Wilson hits his fly balls and grounders harder, Arraez hits his liners harder. Arraez routinely posts high line drive rates - his 26.1% mark this season is right in line with career norms, and is over two standard deviations above league average. Their Adjusted Contact Scores - the level at which they 'should be' producing based on their exit speed/launch angle mix - are almost identical, with Wilson getting a 67 to 64 edge. Add back the Ks and BBs and again, they're almost the same, with Wilson earning an 89 to 88 'Tru' Production+ edge.
But wait, isn't Wilson excelling with the bat to a tune of a 136 wRC+? He sure is, but there is an awful lot of good fortune - and an awful lot of Sutter Health Park - baked into his actual numbers. He has been exceedingly lucky on both fly balls (108 Unadjusted vs. 34 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) and grounders (168 vs. 90). The Athletics home park has quickly established itself as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game. Through May 18, it had a 125 doubles park factor. Sure, it's only a month and a half, but batted ball-based park factors stabilize quickly. Wilson has notched 11 of his 17 doubles at home, where he is batting .353-.407-.509 so far.
So no, one should not expect Wilson to maintain his current levels of offensive production. But he did carve up the upper minors leagues with his bat in 2024, ranking #9 on my year-end position player prospect ranking, which is purely statistically based, taking performance and age relative to the league into account. He's not what his numbers currently suggest, but he's better than his dad was.
And while he might not be capable of keeping up with Arraez (who peaked at #30 on my minor league rankings) in the batting average department on a year-to-year basis, he's clearly a better player. He's got a bit more extra base upside, even without the help from his home park, and much, much more importantly, is five years younger and is a shortstop. And an at least average defensive shortstop, at that.
Don't expect Jacob Wilson to be a perennial All Star starter - he's not that guy. But he is a fun, relatively unique quality major league regular with a very high floor. You can hit and run with him at the plate without fear of failure. How many major leaguers can you that about these days. He's a key part of the Athletics homegrown nucleus that could be ready to win once they set up shop in Las Vegas in the not too distant future.
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