The Tory newbies who fear they could be the last

Spectator

2 days ago

It is a year today that the survivors of the 2024 Tory election disaster began to make their way to Westminster. Among the 121 Conservative MPs were 26 first-timers. Having lost so much talent last July, many of these now represent the party's best hopes for the future. But with the Tories down to just 17 per cent in the polls, some fear that the intake of 2024 could be the last one of any great size or significance. 'I didn't sign up to slog my guts out for five years, just to lose in 2029' says one.
From bitter defeats often emerge impressive figures. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown first won their seats in 1983; William Hague's defeat in 2001 gave us David Cameron, George Osborne and Boris Johnson. The nature of the 2024 result meant that most of those 26 newbies were chosen for traditionally safe seats, some of which were being vacated by retiring cabinet ministers. Many newbies have long cultivated a political career and harbour hopes of serving in ministerial office. More than half are ex-councillors. 'A good crop,' is the verdict of one veteran MP.
The first major decision made by this new intake was who to back for leader. Having only just arrived in parliament, they found themselves immediately buttonholed by various teams, asking for their support. Only one, Ben Obese-Jecty, decided to initially publicly back eventual victor Kemi Badenoch; Andrew Snowden later switched from Priti Patel. Seven of the group went for Robert Jenrick; five for James Cleverly. For some, this was an indication of a generational divide within the Conservative family. The Jenrick cluster remains close-knit in parliament: Jack Rankin and Katie Lam share an office while Lam and Nick Timothy work closely on grooming gangs.
Sensibly, Badenoch offered jobs to the new intake as soon as the contest finished in November. Nine became whips; the others made Parliamentary Private Secretaries (PPSs). Initially, there was an air of excitement among many, discovering parliament's novelties. One or two quickly became identified as 'characters'. Lincoln Jopp MC, is, at 57, the oldest. 'Great fun at the pub', is the verdict of one; 'A good future Chief Whip,' says another, 'because if he asked me to do something, I'd do it.' Shivani Raja, a 30-year-old former beauty queen, caused a stir by flipping Leicester East.
John Cooper, Alister Jack's old spad who replaced him in Dumfries and Galloway, is praised among the intake for his low-key style and sharp mind. 'There's a lot of love for John', says one MP. Two names are often cited as being stand out stars: Lam and Timothy. Both, unsurprisingly, have prior Westminster experience as special advisers in the Johnson and May governments. Rebecca Paul meanwhile earned plaudits opposing elements of Kim Leadbeater's Bill to legalise assisted dying – something which all but four of the new intake opposed at Third Reading. Obese-Jecty meanwhile switched from being a whip to a PPS and has become a vocal critic of Reform UK on social media.
An esprit de corps quickly developed. Aphra Brandreth, daughter of Gyles, has helped organise some of their regular dinners at favoured Italian haunts like Osteria and Sartoria. The eight new female Tory MPs formed a WhatsApp group too. Some 22 of the 26 signed a letter backed by the Next Generation Tories in September, urging the party to do more for young voters. Yet the subsequent pushback from senior Conservatives has frustrated those who feel they lack an outlet to channel their energies, at a time when older colleagues are less willing to play their part. Some have joined dining societies. Those on the right who are considered 'sound' were invited to attend the 92 Group dinner with Kemi Badenoch at the beginning of April.
The biggest psychological shift among the new MPs came, unsurprisingly, in May. 'Some colleagues had been deluding themselves', reflects one of their peers. But the spectacle of watching 676 Conservative councillors lose across the country shook those in parliament. In Kent, the six Tory MPs watched as they lost 57 of the 62 previously held wards. It has added to the jumpiness and unease among much of the new intake, whose average majority is just 2,616.
More than half have very marginal seats – a winning margin of five per cent or less – compared to one in five MPs across the House. Lam has the biggest, in Weald and Kent, with a majority of 8,422 and margin of 16.6 per cent. David Reed, MP for Exmouth and Exeter East meanwhile won by just 121 votes – a margin of 0.2 per cent. Both are on track to lose their seats to Reform, along with 14 of their peers, according to last month's YouGov MRP poll. In this scenario, just eight of the new intake hold on with Greg Stafford, MP for Farnham and Bordon, set to lose to the Lib Dems.
So will they stick with Badenoch or gamble on change? There is no clear consensus at present. Having survived a near wipeout, the emphasis on patience from the leadership has not landed well. 'It's not about promotion,' said one. 'We're genuinely worried about the future of the party.' Another new MP says that they are preparing to put a letter in, ahead of 2 November, when Badenoch can be subject to a challenge under the rules of the 1922 committee. Ambitious, uneasy and a little restless, expect the new intake to make even more waves in their second year of parliament.