logo
A look at Eritrea's role as new Tigray war looms in Ethiopia – DW – 07/16/2025

A look at Eritrea's role as new Tigray war looms in Ethiopia – DW – 07/16/2025

DW16-07-2025
Northern Ethiopia is growing increasingly tense two and a half years after the Tigray peace deal. Eritrea appears intent on sowing instability in the region. A new report traces how separatists have quietly rearmed.
Reports of troop movements and sporadic clashes in northern Ethiopia have emerged in recent months, feeding concern that a fragile calm could soon collapse. The region is still reeling from the brutal two-year civil war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal government forces — a conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives before it ended with the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022.
"We can't plan anything at the moment," a woman in Mekele, the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, told DW. "We're just trying to survive. A new war could break out tomorrow." She described a climate of fear that has gripped many residents. "Life has become incredibly expensive. We need a peaceful solution so we can return to work and rebuild our lives."
During that war, Eritrean troops supported Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's campaign against the TPLF. But critics warned at the time that peace would remain fragile without Eritrea at the negotiating table. President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled Eritrea for decades, was notably absent from the talks in the South African's administrative capital, Pretoria.
Now, growing fears of renewed violence point towards Eritrea's involvement.
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Another destabilizing factor is the political turmoil within Tigray itself. The once-dominant TPLF has fractured after internal power struggles — a vulnerability Eritrea could potentially exploit.
Following the split, General Tadesse Werede, former commander of the defeated Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), was appointed head of the Tigray interim government in Mekelle. He has urged caution against misinformation and vowed, "There will be no war and no provocation from Tigray's side."
On the other side of the divide is TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael. His faction has been accused of cooperating with Eritrea — a claim it strongly denies. Debretsion has called for a political resolution grounded in the Pretoria agreement: "We urge the international community to pressure the Ethiopian government, its agents, and allies to refrain from preparing for war."
Despite these reassurances, fear is spreading among civilians. "People are withdrawing their money from banks and stockpiling essentials like oil and teff [an Ethiopian cereal]," a resident of Mekele told DW. He called on both TPLF factions "to step aside — or to use their influence to work with the central government to resolve the crisis and prevent war."
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
A full-scale inter-state war may be unlikely, but proxy conflicts are a real possibility, said Gerrit Kurtz, Horn of Africa expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a Berlin-based think tank.
"Eritrea benefits when Ethiopia is weakened — when it's internally fragmented and beset by local conflicts," Kurtz told DW. "That's why the internal crises we've seen over the past few years — many of which are supported, or at least exploited, by Eritrea — serve its strategic interests."
Observers say Eritrea has trained armed groups inside Ethiopia — including, reportedly, the Fano militia in Amhara region. In March, Fano fighters clashed with Ethiopian federal troops in a two-day battle that, according to Addis Ababa, left more than 300 militia members dead.
Eritrea has a long and contentious history with Ethiopia. After colonial rule ended, the country was absorbed into a federation with Ethiopia in 1952, and later forcibly annexed — a move that sparked a decades-long independence struggle. Eritrea finally broke away in 1993, costing Ethiopia its only direct access to the sea. Since then, Eritrea has become one of the world's most repressive and isolated regimes under Isaias Afwerki. In 2010, the United Nations imposed an arms embargo on the country.
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
According to a new report by the US-based watchdog group The Sentry, Eritrea has used its involvement in the Tigray conflict to strengthen its position significantly. "We identified two clear patterns," said Charles Cater, lead investigator for The Sentry, in an interview with DW. "First, the systematic looting of Tigray during the war — factories were dismantled and moved across the border. Everything of value was taken to Eritrea."
The second pattern, he said, was illicit trade: Eritrea profited from smuggling gold, sesame, cultural artifacts, and even people from Tigray. The resulting foreign currency is believed to have helped fund Eritrea's ongoing operations in Ethiopia.
Another pivotal moment came in 2018, when Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace agreement, ending years of open hostility. Prime Minister Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the breakthrough — but Afwerki was left out, despite the deal helping to lift the UN arms embargo against Eritrea. The Sentry also documented how Eritrea subsequently bought weapons, including from Russia.
In response, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed the report as a "fabricated narrative" meant to scapegoat Eritrea.
The Eritrean military is reportedly strengthening its positions near the Tigray border and may have advanced up to 10 kilometers (6 miles) into Ethiopian territory, according to The Sentry. Both sides had previously agreed to a new border alignment during the 2018 thaw in relations.
The Pretoria Agreement stipulated the withdrawal of all non-federal forces from Tigray — including Eritrean troops. It is now up to the Ethiopian government to find a political solution, both with Eritrea and with the divided TPLF, noted SWP's Gerrit Kurtz.
"Abiy's strategy is to keep all domestic rivals weak enough that they can't unite against him. That means sometimes aligning with certain factions, while repressing others. But it's a high-stakes game," Kurtz said.
Ethiopia is scheduled to hold national elections next year, and analysts warn that Abiy could use the Tigray crisis as political leverage. Since 2023, he has also revived calls for Ethiopia to secure its own access to the sea — a move that has already fueled diplomatic tensions with Somalia and led some to fear a potential military incursion into Eritrea.
For now, Abiy has publicly reiterated his commitment to peace.
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Tunisians call for the fall of 'authoritarian regime' – DW – 07/26/2025
Tunisians call for the fall of 'authoritarian regime' – DW – 07/26/2025

DW

time2 minutes ago

  • DW

Tunisians call for the fall of 'authoritarian regime' – DW – 07/26/2025

Tunisians flooded the streets to protest President Kais Saied's increasingly authoritarian rule, four years after his power grab. Hundreds of Tunisians marched through the capital on Friday to denounce President Kais Saied's increasingly authoritarian rule, as they chanted "The people want the fall of the regime." Marking four years since his controversial power grab, the protesters criticized the "authoritarian regime" for turning the country into an "open-air prison." The demonstrators said Tunisia has slid into authoritarian rule under Saied, marked by mass arrests and politically driven trials aimed at crushing dissent. Rallying under the banner "The Republic is a large prison," the protesters, led by women, chanted slogans demanding the release of jailed opposition leaders, journalists and activists. Four years ago, on July 25, 2021, Saied dissolved the parliament, removed the prime minister and began ruling by decree. Critics branded the move as a coup. Since then, Saied has dissolved key judicial bodies, dismissed judges and overseen the jailing of numerous opponents. Most of Saied's prominent political opponents, including Rached Ghannouchi and Abir Moussi, are all behind bars. "Tunisia has become an open-air prison," said Saib Souab, whose father, lawyer and Saied critic Ahmed Souab, is behind bars. Even those not imprisoned live in fear of arrest, Souab said. A 2024 report by rights group Amnesty International said that Tunisian authorities are using vague legal charges to arrest of critics of the government. Monia Ibrahim, wife of jailed politician Abdelhamid Jelassi, told Reuters news agency that the aim of Friday's protest was to restore democracy and free political detainees. July 25, once celebrated as Republic Day in Tunisia, has come to be associated with Saied's anti-political class "July 25 Movement." Samir Dilou, a former government minister said the day's meaning has changed to mark the "dismantling" of Tunisia. "Absolute power is absolute corruption," Dilou said. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video

Taiwan votes in high-stakes recall election – DW – 07/26/2025
Taiwan votes in high-stakes recall election – DW – 07/26/2025

DW

time32 minutes ago

  • DW

Taiwan votes in high-stakes recall election – DW – 07/26/2025

Taiwan has started voting on whether to recall around one-fifth of its parliament, all from the major opposition party. Voters in Taiwan are casting their ballots on whether to recall 24 lawmakers from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party and hold by-elections for their seats. The high-stakes referendum could give President Lai Ching-te's DPP party control of the parliament after it lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections despite Lai winning the presidential race. This is the first mass recall in Taiwan's history, with another seven KMT lawmakers facing a second recall election in August. KMT, which has a total of 52 parliamentary seats, advocates for closer economic ties with China. Its critics accuse the KMT lawmakers of being pro-Communist and beholden to China. The KMT, which controls parliament with the help of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), has slammed the unprecedented recall effort as a power grab. The KMT, together with the TPP has obstructed Lai's agenda wherever possible. This includes slashing Taiwan's defense budget and freezing other defense funds at a time when the threat from China is growing. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video They have also pushed controversial reforms to expand parliament's powers. These led to brawls in the legislature and massive street protests — and spurred civic groups to launch the recall campaign. Under Taiwan's election laws, signatures from 10% of a district's registered voters are required to hold a recall vote. For a KMT lawmaker to lose their seat, the number of votes in favor of recalling them must exceed those against and turnout must exceed 25% of registered voters. The DPP needs recalls of at least 12 KMT lawmakers to gain temporary control of the parliament. China has loomed large over the recall vote. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council warned earlier in the week of "visible evidence" China was trying to interfere in the election process. China claims that Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to use force to bring it under its control. Polls close at 4 p.m. Taiwan time (0800 UTC/GMT), and results should become clear later in the evening.

Russia to crack down on what it deems 'extremist' content – DW – 07/25/2025
Russia to crack down on what it deems 'extremist' content – DW – 07/25/2025

DW

time7 hours ago

  • DW

Russia to crack down on what it deems 'extremist' content – DW – 07/25/2025

In a fresh move to restrict free speech, Russia's parliament has approved legislation punishing those who browse what the state deems as "extremist" online content. How will this affect users? On July 25, Russia's upper house approved a new censorship law that introduces fines for anyone caught searching for or accessing content officially labeled as "extremist." The law will take effect once signed by Russia's president Vladimir Putin. The sweeping legislation doesn't stop there — it also imposes penalties for promoting VPN services, the very tools many Russians rely on to bypass government censorship and access blocked information. After Russia's lower house, the State Duma, endorsed the law on July 22, a small group of people protested outside Russia's parliament, for the first time in a long while. One of the signs read "For a Russia without censorship. Orwell wrote a dystopia, not a manual." Police quickly detained the man holding it. The classic dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four by George Orwell, published in 1949, is widely interpreted as a warning against totalitarian rule, inspired by the government oppression the author observed in Nazism and Stalinism. Another protester was Boris Nadezhdin, who had been expected to be the only liberal candidate in the 2024 presidential election. At the time, the electoral commission refused to register his candidacy. "The first stage was banning websites. Now they're banning people from searching the internet. This is already close to thoughtcrime," Nadezhdin told DW, alluding to Orwell's same novel, and its central theme of citizens being punished for thinking differently than the state. The new legislation stands out even among the dozens of censorship laws the State Duma has passed before and after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. According to the bill, simply searching for so-called "extremist materials" online will now be considered an administrative offense, punishable with a fine of up to the equivalent of €55 ($64). Previously, punishment required some form of engagement with banned material, such as posting a critical comment on social media. What counts as extremist materials is defined by a list maintained by Russia's Justice Ministry. It currently contains over 5,000 entries. Officials and lawmakers claim the law targets those who systematically seek banned content, not average citizens casually browsing, but have not offered clarification over what constitutes systematic searches. The registry features flyers, pamphlets, books, newspapers, films, video clips, works of visual art, and songs. In theory, it is meant to include content that incites interethnic hatred, as well as writings by leaders of Germany's National Socialist Workers' Party and Italy's fascist party. In reality, the list also includes works criticizing the government, or speaking out against authorities. One of them is the 2002 book by Russian defector and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer Alexander Litvinenko. Titled Lubyanka Criminal Group, this nonfiction work details how Russian security services allegedly staged the bombing of residential buildings in Moscow in 1999 and other terror acts in an effort to help Putin rise to power. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The blacklist also includes materials from the religious movement Jehovah's Witnesses, which Russia designated as extremist in 2017. In 2023, journalists from the independent Russia news outlet 7x7 reported that the list of "extremist" materials has been growing by hundreds of new entries every year. Between 2011 and 2022, nearly 15,500 administrative cases were opened for the distribution of "extremist" content. That's an average of 1,300 cases per year, most of which resulted in fines of up to about €50. The law has sparked widespread public outcry, with even ordinarily pro-Kremlin figures posting critical messages on social media. Margarita Simonyan, for example, editor-in-chief of the Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT, complained that the new law would prevent her from investigating and "shaming" extremist organizations. Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, authorities have added dozens of prominent Russians and organizations critical of the war to its list of banned extremists and terrorists. Among them are writers, musicians, journalists, and popular bloggers, including, for example, the writer Boris Akunin, or TV host Alexander Nevzorov. Meta, behind Facebook and Instagram, was declared extremist in March 2022, following an announcement that the company would permit posts endorsing the killing of Russian soldiers on its platforms, which Russia said constituted "Russophobia." State Duma deputy head Sergei Boyarsky, from the conservative ruling United Russia party, sought to reassure citizens, claiming that using Meta's social networks, or searching for materials created by people declared extremists would not be punished. According to him, fines would only apply to searches for content officially classified as extremist. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video In reality, it's hard to predict how Russian police will enforce the new law. "Everything will depend on the particular person in uniform who's been given the power to interpret your guilt," Dmitry Zair-Bek, head of the human rights legal project Pervy Otdel, told DW. According to him, it's likely that, as is already happening, Russians' phones will increasingly be checked during border inspections. Another possible scenario would be if Russia adopted the kind of policing practices used in neighboring Belarus. There, platforms like Instagram, X, and YouTube, which are blocked in Russia, remain accessible. However, subscribing to banned channels on these platforms is prohibited."Censorship in Belarus exists in physical space. Police are asking to check citizens' phones on trains and in student dormitories. Refusing is nearly impossible," Dmitriy Navosha, a co-founder of the international online sports publisher told DW. Access to his website is not restricted in Belarus, but the site was labeled as extremist after Navosha repeatedly spoke out against Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko and the security forces' violent crackdown on protesters in 2020. As a result of the extremism label, visitors to the online sports site risk punishment simply for viewing its content. Since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has severely tightened restrictions on free speech, such as banning the spreading of what it deemed "false information" about the war, and tightening "foreign agent" designations for outlets and organizations considered to be politically active with the help of foreign funding. In the spring, the governmental anti-corruption agency, the Russian Investigative Committee, reported that 605 cases had been opened under two new articles of the Criminal Code since 2022 — one for spreading "fake news" about the Russian army, and another for "discrediting" the armed forces. Under these laws, Russian citizens have been fined or imprisoned for calling Russia's actions in Ukraine a war, rather than a "special military operation," as well as for posting on social media about events such as the killing of civilians by Russian soldiers in the Ukrainian town of Bucha. At the end of 2024, the human rights organization Memorial reported that at least 10,000 political prisoners were being held in detention across Russia. When Russian President Vladimir Putin signs this new law, the number of people being punished for exercising free speech could rise significantly.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store