Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for July 11, 2025; why a 'buy on dip' strategy makes sense?
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have an underlying positive bias and experts believe that buying on dips may be the correct strategy for now.
Here's the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities:
Gold prices have shown a decisive recovery from recent lows, with the MCX Gold August Futures (05AUG2025) currently trading around ₹97,247.
The underlying tone remains positive, supported by a steady climb above key short-term moving averages.
With momentum indicators turning favorable, the intraday bias shifts towards a Buy on Dip strategy near ₹97,000, with downside risk capped around ₹96,450.
Gold Technical Setup:
1. EMA Alignment Signals Strength:
The 8-period EMA stands at ₹96,900, while the 21-period EMA is at ₹96,700. The price is now trading above both EMAs, indicating a short-term bullish crossover and establishing a support base around the ₹97,000 level.
A successful retest of this zone could serve as an entry point for fresh long positions.
2. Bollinger Bands Indicate Momentum Expansion:
The Bollinger Bands have begun to widen, with price riding along the upper band. This suggests that volatility is picking up in favor of the bulls. The lower band, placed well below ₹96,500, gives breathing room for pullbacks while maintaining the overall uptrend.
3. Pivot Point Perspective:
Prices have managed to sustain above the previous day's pivot, converting it into a support zone.
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This structure aligns with the higher-lows pattern visible on the intraday chart, reinforcing bullish conviction above ₹97,000.
4. RSI (14) Reading:
The Relative Strength Index is currently at 70.12, entering overbought territory but still not showing any bearish divergence. A brief consolidation or minor pullback near ₹97,000 can allow the RSI to cool off, offering a renewed entry opportunity.
5. MACD (Implied from Momentum):
The MACD is inferred to be in a positive crossover state, backed by the recent trend reversal and price closing above key averages.
The histogram likely reflects increasing bullish momentum.
6. Price Structure and Candle Formation:
The latest candle shows a strong bullish body with a narrow upper wick, suggesting firm buying interest at the open. The price closing above the high-volume congestion zone confirms a breakout with strength.
Conclusion:
Gold intraday bias remains bullish. Traders can adopt a Buy on Dip strategy near the ₹97,000 mark, placing a protective stop-loss at ₹96,450. Upside targets for the session could be ₹97,500 and ₹97,750, provided the global sentiment remains supportive and prices hold above short-term EMAs.
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