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Economic Times
11 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Commodity Radar: Sell gold at Rs 93,000 as more cracks seen after Rs 5,600 fall from peak
ADVERTISEMENT Gold's once-dazzling rally is losing steam, with the yellow metal slipping nearly Rs 5,600 or 6% from its peak of Rs 1,01,078 per 10 grams, as it breaches key support levels. The easing Israel-Iran tensions, a strengthening rupee, and hawkish cues from US economic data have stripped gold of its geopolitical premium, triggering a sell-on-rise strategy, says Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities. Charts are flashing red with bearish signals, and a likely fall to the target of Rs 93,000 is expected if dollar strengthens or heavy US data surprises emerge. Gold traded in a narrow range in Monday's opening trade amid a lack of triggers, taking cues from the flat international prices. The MCX August gold futures were trading at Rs 95,500, marginally up by Rs 30 or 0.03%. On the COMEX, the gold rate was hovering near $3,290.30 per troy ounce, up by $2.70 or 0.08%. Global risk events remain mixed and gold is currently holding a modest geopolitical premium due to unresolved tensions between Israel and Iran, along with continued global trade tariff uncertainties, Trivedi movement and key US economic data, including manufacturing PMI, non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate, and the Fed's interest rate guidance, will impact the yellow metal price movement. ADVERTISEMENT The dollar index (DXY) is currently hovering near the 97 mark against a basket of six major currencies. It has declined 1.5% over the past five trading sessions, extending its losses to over 10% this year, so far. Among the domestic factors, the rupee's strength will create pressure for MCX gold futures, Trivedi said, highlighting currency's gain due to easing geopolitical tension and stable crude view ADVERTISEMENT 1) Key support & resistanceGold broke below short-term support and is now in a corrective phase after failing to sustain above Rs 98,000. ADVERTISEMENT Resistance Zones:-- Immediate resistance/sell zone: Rs 96,000–Rs 96,250-- Trend reversal zone (SL zone): Rs 98,200 ADVERTISEMENT Support Zones:-- Short-term support: Rs 94,750-- Strong swing support: Rs 93,800-- Breakdown support level: Rs 92,500Sellers are likely to defend Rs 96,250 unless there is a surprise trigger from global cues. 2) RSI (14): Weakening Momentum with RSI at 40.91RSI has slipped closer to the oversold threshold and stands at 40.91, reflecting strong bearish momentum building. Unless RSI reverses above 50, expect continued downward bias. 3) Bollinger Bands: Breakdown from mid-bandPrice has moved decisively below the mid-band, and the lower band (Rs 94,800) is now the next downside marker. Bands are expanding again, indicating a rise in volatility that supports a further downward move lower unless quickly reversed. 4) EMA 8 & EMA 21 shows bearish crossover is confirmed -- EMA 8 (Red): Rs 96,400-- EMA 21 (Yellow): Rs 97,200The price is firmly below both EMAs, with EMA 8 crossing below EMA 21 — a classic short-term bearish crossover. This signals a sell-on-rise structure until EMAs flip again. A bearish lower-high formation is visible with the price trading below both EMA 8 & EMA 21. 5) MACD shows a likely bearish momentum Although not displayed in the image, the last seen MACD histogram and signal line slope were weakening, hinting that a negative crossover may already be in play or imminent. This supports a bearish near-term tone. Gold trading strategy --Sell on rise strategy near Rs 96,250 for targets of Rs 94,750/Rs 93,800/Rs 93,000 on heavy US data or dollar strength.-- Sell Zone: Rs 96,000–Rs 96,250-- Stop-Loss: Rs 98,200 (Closing Basis) (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Mint
12 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
F&O Strategy: BEL to Techno Electric — Rupak De suggests buy or sell strategy for THESE stocks
Stock market today: The domestic benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, opened slightly lower on Monday, pausing after last week's increases fueled by reduced geopolitical tensions, better global signals, and a resurgence in foreign investments. The Nifty 50 decreased by 0.01% to 25,637 points, while the Sensex dropped 0.05% to 84,024.65 as of 9:25 IST. Gains across most sectors were countered by profit-taking in the financial and automotive sectors. In contrast, small- and mid-cap indices outperformed, climbing 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. Analysts indicated that some investors might be reducing their positions due to elevated valuations, yet the overall sentiment remains positive despite the pause. According to Rupak De of LKP Securities, considering the recent swift rally, a buy-on-dips approach seems more suitable at current levels. On the downside, support is seen at 25,500. Nifty 50 extended its upward move, underpinned by sustained investor confidence. With no significant resistance anticipated before the 25,750–25,800 zone, the index is likely to maintain its bullish trajectory. However, the ascent may be gradual rather than sharp. Given the recent swift rally, a buy-on-dips approach seems more suitable at current levels. On the downside, support is seen at 25,500; a breach below this level could trigger a phase of consolidation. Open Interest Analysis: Good additions were seen in the open interest at the 25,600 PUT; apart from that 25,500 strikes witnessed decent Put addition. While CALL writers added substantial positions at the 25,900 strikes on Friday. Maximum CALL open interest was seen at the 26,000 strike, whereas maximum PUT open interest was seen at 25,500, indicating a broader range for the market. Currently the PUT writers are slightly outnumbering the CALL writers for current weekly expiry. Strategy: Strength increases if Nifty 50 sustains above 25,600 in the first hour. Trade: Buy Nifty 50 3 July 25700CE ABOVE 120 TGT 200 SL 78. BEL share price has formed a bullish Harami pattern on the daily chart, indicating the possibility of a short-term reversal. A consolidation breakout on the hourly chart further supports the positive outlook. Additionally, the RSI on the hourly timeframe has shown a bullish crossover. These technical signals suggest that the short-term trend is likely to remain positive, with an upside potential towards ₹ 445. A stop-loss may be placed at ₹ 399. Torrent Pharma shares has broken out of a consolidation phase on the daily chart, reflecting improving market sentiment. The stock has also reclaimed its 200-day moving average, indicating renewed strength. The RSI is trending higher, supported by increasing momentum. These indicators point to a potential short-term rally toward ₹ 3,600. A stop-loss can be considered at ₹ 3,250. Techno Electric shares has staged a breakout from a consolidation zone on the daily chart, signaling rising investor confidence. The stock is trading above its 21-day EMA, suggesting sustained bullishness. Moreover, the RSI is exhibiting positive momentum. Together, these factors imply a short-term uptrend, with a target of ₹ 1,750 and a stop-loss at ₹ 1,545. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.
Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Stock market this week: US economic data, IPOs, FIIs top triggers that may dictate Dalal Street
Indian stock markets continued their upward momentum for a fourth straight session on Friday, June 27, with benchmark indices — the Sensex and Nifty 50 — posting solid gains supported by broadly positive global trends. The Sensex ended the day 303 points, or 0.36%, higher at 84,058.90, while the Nifty 50 advanced 89 points, or 0.35%, to close at 25,637.80. Gains were seen across the board, with the BSE Midcap index climbing 0.38% and the Smallcap index rising 0.54%. Over the past four sessions, the Sensex has surged by 2,162 points, marking an increase of nearly 3%, while the Nifty 50 has also registered a similar gain of close to 3%. 'Markets edged higher on Friday, extending the ongoing uptrend and ending the session with modest gains. After a flat start, the Nifty gradually moved up during the first half, followed by a range-bound phase until the close. It eventually settled near the day's high at 25,637.80. The recent geopolitical stability has improved risk sentiment, as seen in the broad-based market participation. Moreover, positive developments around potential trade agreements could further strengthen the bullish bias. We continue to recommend a 'buy on dips' strategy on the index, with an emphasis on selective stock picking for better opportunities,' said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Although the week began on a cautious note, indices picked up momentum midweek as concerns over the Iran-Israel conflict subsided and global risk appetite strengthened. As a result, benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex ended the week close to their highs, settling at 25,637.80 and 84,058.90, respectively. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said on Nifty outlook, " 'The Nifty continued to move higher as investor confidence remained strong. With no major resistance seen before 25,750–25,800, the index may continue its upward trajectory. However, the rally might not be sharp, and it could take time to reach the 25,800 mark. A buy-on-dips strategy appears more appropriate at current levels, following the sharp rise over the past few days. On the downside, support is placed at 25,500; a break below this level could lead to consolidation.' On the Bank Nifty outlook, brokerage firm Bajaj Broking said, 'Bank Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a sizable bull candle with a higher high and higher low signaling strength and continuation of the up move. The index in the process rallied to a fresh all time high. Given the recent breakout from the consolidation zone of 56,000–53,500, the implied pattern target projects an upside potential towards 58,000-58,500 marks over the coming sessions. This projection is further supported by bullish price structure and momentum indicators. On the downside, key support base has been recalibrated to the 56,000–55,500 region, which marks a confluence of technical factors—namely, the 20-day EMA and the recent swing lows of last week.' Although market sentiment has improved, concerns remain about possible tariff hikes, especially with U.S. tariffs set to resume on July 9. Trade agreement updates will continue to be a key focus. The U.S. President recently shared on social media that a deal has been signed with China and hinted at a possible agreement with India, though specific details are still unclear. Markets will closely watch for further clarity on these developments. July 3 will be a major day for U.S. economic indicators, with the release of Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate for June. These figures will provide a comprehensive view of the labor market's strength and its implications for monetary policy. Also scheduled for release on the same day is the S&P Global Services PMI, which reflects service sector activity and consumer sentiment. The benchmark index signaled robust investor confidence, supported by the perceived stability of the Middle East ceasefire, which helped alleviate fears of possible supply chain interruptions. However, investors will keep a close monitor on Israel-Iran update as it is likely to dictate market movement in the upcoming week. The primary market will witness opening of seven new initial public offering (IPOs) in the coming week - 2 mainboard and 5 SME IPOs. In the mainboard segment, Crizac Limited IPO will open for subscription on July 2, whereas Travel Food Services IPO will open for bidding on July 3. The Indian equity indices continued their upward momentum for the second straight week ending June 27, supported by a decline in crude oil prices due to reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, consistent foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows, a positive monsoon outlook, and easing trade tensions ahead of the approaching deadline. ' Key catalysts like the ceasefire in the Middle East and optimism on easing trade tensions ahead of the deadline have cleared the clouds in the minds of investors. After consecutive days of selling, FIIs have turned net buyers in the domestic market, contributing to improved market stability in the near term,' said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited. Oil prices remained stable as traders balanced the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran nuclear negotiations with reports suggesting that OPEC might continue its streak of significant production hikes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw slight gains, ultimately closing above $65 per barrel after fluctuating between positive and negative territory during the session. According to Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, believes that with the Nifty ending its consolidation phase through a decisive breakout, we now expect a gradual move toward the all-time high i.e. 26,277.35. " However, the gap area around 25,800 could cause a temporary pause. In the event of a pullback, the 24,800–25,200 zone—which previously acted as resistance—is likely to offer strong support? The banking index has resumed its bullish trajectory, supported by renewed buying interest in major private sector banks and intermittent strength in PSU banks. We anticipate the index to gradually advance toward the upper trendline of the broadening formation around 58,200, followed by a potential move to the psychological mark of 60,000," Mishra said. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
India.com
3 days ago
- Business
- India.com
Stock Market Hits 9-month High As Sensex Surges Past 84,000, Nifty Nears 25,650
Mumbai: The Indian stock markets ended on a strong note on Friday, with benchmark indices touching a nine-month high. Investors were in a positive mood as tensions in West Asia eased amid reports of a 'great' India-US trade deal possibility, thus lifting market confidence and encouraging buying. The Sensex climbed 303.03 points, or 0.36 per cent, to close at 84,058.90. It traded within a range of 83,645.41 to 84,089.35 during the day. This is the fourth straight session of gains for the benchmark index, marking a steady upward trend. The Nifty also saw a similar rise, gaining 88.80 points, or 0.35 per cent, to finish the day at 25,637.80. It moved between 25,523 and 25,654 in intra-day trade. "The Nifty continued to move higher as investor confidence remained strong. With no major resistance seen before 25,750–25,800, the index may continue its upward trajectory,' Rupak De of LKP Securities said. A buy-on-dips strategy appears more appropriate at current levels, following the sharp rise over the past few days. On the downside, support is placed at 25,500; a break below this level could lead to consolidation, he added. Earlier, the Sensex had touched the 84,000-mark in October 2024, while the Nifty had reached 25,639 on October 3 last year. Broader markets followed suit. The Nifty Midcap100 index rose 0.27 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap100 jumped 0.91 per cent -- showing that investor interest was strong even beyond large-cap stocks. Except for the Nifty Consumer Durables, Realty, IT, and FMCG indices, all other sectoral indices on the NSE closed in the green. The Nifty Oil & Gas index outperformed both its sectoral peers and the benchmark indices, ending 1.19 per cent higher. Volatility also cooled off, with the India VIX -- the fear gauge -- slipping 1.60 per cent to settle at 12.39. This suggests that investors are feeling more confident about market stability in the near term.
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Rupee posts best week since Jan 2023 as oil prices slide; ends below 85.5/$
The Indian rupee strengthened for the second consecutive day on Friday, supported by likely inflows from global funds and a weaker dollar index. The domestic currency closed 22 paise higher at 85.49, a day after closing at 86.71 against the dollar, according to Bloomberg. The currency has depreciated by around 0.1 per cent so far this month, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies. On a weekly basis, the currency saw its best week since January 2023, driven mainly by a plunge in crude oil prices amid Iran-Israel conflicts. Rupee traded strong as the dollar index continued its weak trend below the 97 mark, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities. The rupee has strengthened over the last few sessions, supported by easing tensions in West Asia and a sharp 12-14 per cent drop in crude prices, he said. Inflows dominated outflows yesterday, lifting the rupee by 38 paise, and a similar trend is anticipated today, according to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. "However, potential outflows from oil payments, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) dollar purchases, and global funds buying may cap gains." A significant outflow of around $1 billion could also occur due to JSW Paints' acquisition of Akzo Nobel, Bhansali said, adding that the final day of the HDB Financial issue could trigger additional inflows. The dollar index was slightly higher driven by hopes for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The first quarter consumer spending grew at the weakest pace since the pandemic. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.10 per cent at 97.24. On Thursday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that US President Donald Trump could extend the July 9 deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs in a bid to secure deals with other trading nations. This sent the equity market higher on Wall Street. Meanwhile, crude oil prices were headed for weekly losses as concerns over West Asia cleared after the Iran-Israel ceasefire. Brent crude price was up 0.69 per cent at $68.20 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were higher by 0.74 per cent at 65.72, as of 3:35 PM IST.
