What is the Nankai Trough megaquake and why it could be fatal for Japan, according to Ryo Tatsuki's prediction

Time of India

a day ago

What is the Nankai Trough megaquake and why it could be fatal for Japan
Japan, one of the most seismically active countries in the world, has approved a new comprehensive disaster preparedness strategy aimed at mitigating the catastrophic impact of the anticipated Nankai Trough megaquake.
This long-overdue initiative comes in response to scientific consensus that a powerful earthquake, possibly followed by massive tsunamis, is likely to strike along the Nankai megathrust—a subduction zone off Japan's Pacific coast—within the coming decades. Government projections warn that such an event could result in the deaths of up to 298,000 people and the destruction of over 2.35 million buildings in a worst-case scenario.
According to
The Economic Times
, the Central Disaster Management Council, led by the Japanese Prime Minister, convened in Tokyo to approve the new plan. It updates the 2014 disaster guidelines and sets ambitious targets to reduce deaths by 80% and damage by 50% over the next ten years. Here are the details of origins, scientific background, objectives, and implementation mechanisms of Japan's newest national strategy, aiming to provide a complete, fact-based picture of the challenges and solutions related to one of the country's most significant natural threats.
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'New Baba Vanga' predicts a catastrophic quake in Japan: What is the
Nankai Trough
and why it matters
The Nankai Trough is a deep oceanic trench located off the southern coast of Japan, stretching from Suruga Bay to the Kyushu region. It marks the boundary where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Amurian Plate, making it a highly active seismic zone. Earthquakes originating from this fault are known as Nankai megathrust earthquakes and are among the most powerful and damaging in Japanese history.
Historically, the Nankai Trough has produced pairs of massive earthquakes roughly every 90 to 200 years. Key events include:
1707 Hōei earthquake
1854 Ansei-Tōkai and Ansei-Nankai earthquakes (occurred one day apart)
1944 Tōnankai earthquake
1946 Nankaidō earthquake
Given this cyclical pattern, scientists believe Japan is now in the window for another such major event.
The densely populated Pacific coast—home to cities like Osaka, Nagoya, and Shizuoka—makes the potential human and economic toll especially alarming.
Government's new disaster preparedness plan (2025)
The updated plan, finalised in 2025, replaces the previous framework established in 2014. The key goals are:
Reduce fatalities by 80%
Cut structural damage by 50%
Enhance early warning and evacuation procedures
Reinforce critical infrastructure in high-risk zones
The plan focuses on both earthquake preparedness and tsunami resilience, reflecting the dual threats posed by a Nankai Trough rupture.
200 target measures
The plan outlines 200 specific goals, which will be evaluated annually. These include:
Retrofitting vulnerable homes to earthquake-resistant standards
Expanding and upgrading tsunami evacuation towers
Improving early warning systems using AI and satellite data
Increasing evacuation drill frequency in at-risk municipalities
Stockpiling emergency supplies in coastal shelters
Local governments are expected to implement these goals with financial and logistical support from the central government.
Japan warns of Nankai Trough megaquake: Up to 298,000 lives at risk
The Japanese government's Cabinet Office released projections in March 2025, modelling several scenarios based on different magnitudes and rupture patterns. The worst-case scenario for a magnitude 9-class earthquake along the Nankai Trough includes:
Up to 298,000 deaths, including tsunami casualties
2.35 million buildings destroyed, mostly in southern Honshu and Shikoku
Economic losses exceeding ¥220 trillion (approx. $1.4 trillion USD)
Tsunami waves reaching heights of over 30 meters in some areas
These estimates incorporate past events and current population densities, including lessons learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, which killed nearly 20,000 people.
Japan's Baba Vanga Ryo Tatsuki's prediction and public reaction
In parallel with scientific concerns, public attention has been drawn by the predictions of Ryo Tatsuki, a Japanese manga artist sometimes called the 'New Baba Vanga.' Tatsuki, known for allegedly accurate past forecasts, predicted a giant seabed crack forming between Japan and the Philippines, triggering a tsunami three times larger than that of the 2011 disaster.
Although Tatsuki's warnings are not supported by scientific evidence, they have fueled anxiety on social media and added urgency to national preparedness conversations.
Authorities have neither confirmed nor dismissed her claims but continue to base policies on geological and seismological data.
Structural and social preparedness measures
Infrastructure resilience
High-risk housing in coastal prefectures will be retrofitted by 2030.
Tsunami shelters will be expanded and raised to accommodate higher wave models.
Hospitals, schools, and public transport hubs will undergo seismic reinforcement.
Emergency communication networks will be upgraded for post-quake coordination.
Community readiness
Evacuation drills in schools and workplaces will become mandatory biannually.
Community watch programs will be funded to assist the elderly and disabled during emergencies.
Mobile alert systems will be updated to cover more precise GPS-triggered warnings.
Implementation and oversight
The plan will be coordinated by the Cabinet Office's Central Disaster Management Council, with collaboration from:
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT)
Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA)
Local municipal authorities
Each of the 200 targets will be reviewed annually, and progress reports will be submitted to the Diet (Japanese Parliament) to maintain transparency and public accountability.
Looking ahead: Japan's commitment to resilience
Japan's new disaster plan represents a critical step forward in the country's ongoing efforts to safeguard lives and infrastructure in the face of inevitable natural hazards. With one of the world's most advanced seismic monitoring systems and a culture deeply familiar with disaster risk, Japan is striving to combine technological innovation, historical knowledge, and local engagement to withstand what could be one of the deadliest natural events in modern history.
As the country prepares for a future that will almost certainly include another Nankai Trough megaquake, the success of this plan will depend not only on government funding and scientific forecasts but also on the willingness of citizens to engage in a nationwide culture of readiness.