Indus in turmoil: Swat Valley, Gilgit-Baltistan swamped by floods

Time of India

2 days ago

ISLAMABAD: Swat Valley and Gilgit-Baltistan — key cradles of the Indus river — are battling deadly floods triggered by relentless monsoon rains and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), exposing Pakistan's weak climate governance and the fragility of its disaster response.
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At least 72 people have died nationwide, including 14 in Swat and 23 in Astore (Gilgit-Baltistan) where a passenger bus plunged into a swollen river. Another 25 people were rescued from the surging Indus near Shadi Khan in Punjab's Attock district.
Swat's flash floods were triggered by a GLOF in Kalam Mitaltan area, while accelerated glacier melt in Gilgit-Baltistan has swelled rivers such as the Hunza, Kunjrab, and Shimshal Braldu.
In both regions, roads, bridges, and homes have been swept away, leaving mountain communities stranded.
'No early warning systems, no modern rescue equipment – Swat is left to drown, again,' said Ambreen Ali, a local activist, echoing growing public frustration.
Once a prized alpine tourist destination, Swat continues to reel from its past under Taliban rule (2007–2009). Despite a military-led recovery and donor-funded rebuilding, this summer's floods have damaged rebuilt infrastructure, including hotels in Kalam and Bahrain and the Mankial bridge, a lifeline for remote villages.
In Gilgit-Baltistan, floodwaters threaten power lines and roads in Diamer, Skardu, and Astore, while downstream provinces fear the Indus's surging flow. In Sindh, farmers worry that floods – exacerbated by dam releases upstream – will drown their fields.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) blames a 67% rainfall deficit last winter for intensifying water stress. With only 150 cubic meters of per capita water storage, Pakistan is among the most water-insecure countries globally, retaining just 10% of its river flows.
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But it's not just Pakistan that's vulnerable.
India, which shares the Himalayan watershed and the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, faces similar climate pressures. The 2022 floods, which killed 1,700 in Pakistan and inundated Indian regions, underscored the shared ecological risks tied to glacial retreat and erratic monsoons.
The IWT, signed in 1960, has come under renewed strain. India suspended the treaty on April 23, 2025 following a terrorist attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam.
This halted data-sharing on river flows, leaving Pakistan exposed during the monsoon season.
Pakistan suspects India's water infrastructure push – including the Shahpurkandi and Ujh dams – could further disrupt downstream flows. But India too faces its own water anxieties, including unilateral dam operations and growing glacier-related threats in its Himalayan catchments.
Analysts warn that lack of coordination on flood management could have catastrophic consequences for both countries. Experts call for restoring data exchange under IWT, investing in joint watershed management, and building early warning systems. With over 3,000 glacial lakes in Pakistan alone, the risk of future GLOFs looms large.
As Swat mourns its dead and Gilgit-Baltistan braces for more floods, the Indus – a lifeline for both nations – is turning into a symbol of shared peril.