The renewable-energy sector's relative winners and losers in the megabill
Clean-energy companies say the U.S. risks a slowdown in power delivery during the global artificial-intelligence race by ending the tax credits that were part of former President Joe Biden's landmark Inflation Reduction Act. The U.S. is also poised to cede advances in technologies from solar panels to batteries and electric vehicles to China.
'The big-picture outlook for energy is we are going to be less competitive because of this law," said Nick Nigro of Atlas Public Policy. 'Ten years from now we could look back on this moment as the time in which the U.S. pulled back and essentially lost the transition to clean energy."
With each new version of Trump's 'big beautiful bill," the outlook for the renewables sector has shifted. These are the relative winners and losers in the current version:
Not only did Senate Republicans outline plans to phase out tax credits for wind and solar projects more quickly, they proposed a new excise tax on future projects.
The tax would apply to wind and solar projects completed after 2027 if those projects use a certain percentage of components from China, the industry's primary supplier of everything from critical minerals to batteries.
Jason Grumet, chief executive of the American Clean Power Association, called the plan a 'fundamental break in the compact between Congress and the private sector."
Meanwhile, large-scale wind and solar projects would qualify for tax credits only if placed in service by the end of 2027. A prior version of the bill allowed projects to qualify based on their construction start date, a timeline that is easier for developers to control. They have less influence over when their projects connect to the power grid, where lines are long.
Republican Sens. Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley of Iowa, along with Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, have proposed repealing the excise-tax proposal and delaying the phaseout of the credits by maintaining them for projects that begin construction by the end of 2027.
Solar and wind power make up more than 60% of the generation capacity that is expected to be added to the grid this year in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration.
The proposed wind and solar excise tax could offer salvation to companies that have been investing in U.S. factories for wind, solar and battery components.
Mike Carr, executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition, or SEMA, said the tax might encourage project developers to continue ordering domestic equipment.
Companies making factory investments have been worried that without a reason to do so, U.S. developers would return to buying the cheapest solar panels on the market, likely those subsidized by China.
'It is the only lifeline on offer right now in the bill," Carr said. 'Panicked manufacturers are drowning."
Shares of U.S. manufacturer First Solar climbed Monday.
The struggling rooftop solar industry faced a potentially fatal blow after the version of the bill passed by the House of Representatives called for sunsetting tax credits by the end of this year.
The latest Senate version is a little more generous. It instead would extend the credits for leased solar projects to the end of 2027, giving rooftop-focused companies more time to regroup.
Tax credits for those who buy their own systems instead of leasing would phase out at the end of this year. That's likely a smaller portion of the population, however. Guggenheim Securities has estimated that about 70% of the residential solar industry is supported by leasing or other financing arrangements.
Shares of residential solar companies Sunrun and SolarEdge Technologies popped Monday.
Hydrogen also caught a break in the latest version of the bill. Projects can qualify for a tax credit if they begin construction before 2028. Under the House version, that deadline was the end of this year.
The Senate version would also make hydrogen fuel cells, which use chemical reactions to generate electricity, eligible for tax credits. Shares of hydrogen fuel cells makers Plug Power and Bloom Energy soared Monday.
Beyond its regular uses in oil refining and ammonia for fertilizers, hydrogen is viewed as a fossil-fuel alternative for industries including transportation, power generation and shipping. Widespread use has remained elusive because of cost, but new projects are under way along the U.S. Gulf Coast and in Saudi Arabia and Europe. Big oil-and-gas companies are among hydrogen's backers.
The Senate bill would end tax credits for the purchase of EVs after September. That's even quicker than the House version, which called for eliminating them for the most part by the end of the year.
That would lead to higher EV prices, analysts say, when the auto industry already faces a slower EV market.
Elon Musk, whose relationship as a key adviser to the president recently unraveled, called the latest version of the bill 'utterly insane and destructive" on X. He didn't advocate for the EV credit but said that damage to the solar and battery industry would 'leave America extremely vulnerable in the future."
He also railed against the legislation's potential increase to the deficit and renewed promises to form a new political party.
Late Monday, Trump shot back on Truth Social. 'Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE," Trump wrote.
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