France's Macron says U.S. and EU will find a 'good solution' on trade
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to CNBC's Karen Tso at the Viva Technology conference in Paris on Wednesday.
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CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
Asia markets set to open higher as investors await a slew of data releases
Aerial view of Seoul downtown city skyline with vehicle on expressway and bridge cross over Han river in Seoul city, South Korea. Mongkol Chuewong | Moment | Getty Images Asia-Pacific markets are set to mostly climb Monday, with investors watching a slew of data points, including South Korea's and Japan's industrial output figures for May and China's purchasing managers' index readings for June. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 was set to open higher, with the futures contract in Chicago at 40,725 while its counterpart in Osaka last traded at 40,580, against the index's Friday close of 40,150.79. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is slated to start the day higher, with futures tied to the benchmark at 8,521, compared to its last close of 8,514.20. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood at 24,182, pointing to a weaker open compared to the HSI's last close of 24,284.15. U.S. equity futures rose in early Asia hours before the year stretches into the second half. All three key benchmarks on Wall Street rose sharply in last Friday's session. The broad-based S&P 500 hit a new record in more than four months after ending the session about 0.5% higher at 6,173.07 — overtaking its previous record of 6,147.43. The Nasdaq Composite also reached an all-time high, closing at a record after adding about 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 1%. The three benchmarks have staged a sharp recovery this month from the lows seen in April during the height of trade policy tensions. The whipsaw of global trade negotiations can quickly sway market sentiment and pose an ongoing threat to the strength of this rally. — CNBC's Pia Singh contributed to this report.
CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
European stocks have surged in the first half. How will they perform for the rest of 2025?
European shares surged in the first half of the year, massively outperforming stocks on Wall Street — but market watchers are divided on the potential for the trend to continue. As of Friday's close, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index has gained 7% so far this year. Germany's DAX index has surged 20% year-to-date, while the FTSE 100 is up 7.7%, Italy's FTSE MIB has gained 16%, and Spain's IBEX 35 has risen around 20%. That marks a major outperformance in comparison to U.S. stocks. During the same period, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have both added around 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 3%. .STOXX YTD line Have European stocks got further to run? It is relatively rare for European stocks to rally by more than 6.6% in the first half of the year. The Stoxx Europe 600 index has risen 16 times, in 38 years, in such a manner since 1987. On average, when stocks do rally like they have in 2025, they return a mere 4.1% in the second half, according to CNBC's analysis. However, there's good news for investors. When stocks rallied in the second half, after a bumper performance in the first half, they went up by 11%. On the five occasions when stocks lost value in the second half, they fell by 9%. Wall Street's view Looking at the fundamentals, though, asset managers and analysts are also bullish for the second half of 2025. In its mid-year outlook report, Goldman Sachs Asset Management said that although the bull run in Europe had been driven in part by a diversification away from U.S. assets, the shift "isn't just about U.S. concerns." "Europe looks appealing, and many investment opportunities are emerging across sectors in the region," GSAM analysts said in the report. "Our primary focus is on identifying companies whose business are most likely to generate resilient earnings and high returns on capital." Fiscal policies across the region, like historic debt reform in Germany and a commitment from NATO members – most of whom are European nations – to drastically hike defense spending , are creating investment opportunities in defense, energy and infrastructure, they argued. "We see potential opportunities in the equity markets across geographies and sectors — including Europe and small caps, among others," they said. "Globally, companies with key differentiators and pricing power may have enhanced appeal in a world of higher tariffs." Within Europe, GSAM said it was identifying companies with strong ties to defense spending. "Europe's equity market, which has high financial and industrial sector weightings, offers useful diversification for portfolios allocated to US equities," they added. 'Substantial and lasting change' Frédérique Carrier, head of investment strategy for RBC Wealth Management in the British Isles and Asia, agrees that there are opportunities to be found across Europe. In her mid-year outlook report, Carrier argued that structural changes in Europe had the potential to pave the way for "substantial and lasting change." "The MSCI EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) Index, a proxy for European equities, trades at a price-to-earnings valuation of 15.4x 12-months forward consensus earnings forecast, roughly in line with its long-term average. It also trades at a discount to U.S. equities even on a sector-adjusted basis," she said. Carrier said RBC preferred sectors in Europe that were likely to benefit from new fiscal stimulus. Those included certain industrials, like defense and materials, as well as some financial stocks. "In our view, banks should benefit from the region's improved medium-term growth outlook and a steeper yield curve, while continuing to offer attractive shareholder returns via dividends and share buybacks," she said. "We are mindful that sectors subject to tariffs as well as those exposed to a strong currency are less likely to outperform." 'Time for a little more caution' However, some market watchers are making a case for taking a more wary approach to global equities, particularly those listed in Europe. "We as a team think it's time for a little bit of more caution at this stage, because the reality of the economic outlook over the next six months or so is that of the effect of tariffs still coming through," Julius Bendikas, European head of economics and dynamic asset allocation at Mercer, told CNBC's "Europe Early Edition" on Friday. "The hard data, in our view, is likely to turn sooner rather than later. The labor markets are still gradually cooling, so the economic fundamentals are a little bit softer, the valuations look a little bit stretched, and while the market technicals have been fairly bullish at this stage, I think the fundamental picture is still a bit softer." While he acknowledged European equities' outperformance in the first half of the year, Bendikas said he did not see a case for continuing to favor regional stocks. "I wouldn't be calling an overweight or underweight of Europe versus U.S., but we do think that playing [the] Europe narrative still very much via the euro is the best expression at this stage, and therefore would still advocate for euro versus dollar weight," he told CNBC. "But on the equities side, I would say we argue for neutrality." He also recommended favoring fixed income over equities, naming U.K. government bonds – known as gilts – "the asset class of most interest." Meanwhile, Bank of America strategists also remain bearish on European equities. In a Friday note to clients, BoA's Sebastian Raedler, Thomas Pearce and Andreas Bruckner acknowledged that the economic growth story for the euro area is improving, but said they were "sceptical about clear-cut upside this year" as German fiscal stimulus would take time. "We expect global growth to slow on tariff-related pressures, which should lift European equity risk premia and lower earnings," they added. "We stay negative on EU equities." They said their projections implied a 10% downside ahead for the Stoxx 600. "German fiscal beneficiaries have started to roll over, including defence and construction, but utilities, connected to German stimulus via climate and energy transition plans, have continued to outperform, with the sector's price relative up 24% since February and starting to overshoot their key macro drivers," they added. "As a consequence, we lower utilities from overweight to marketweight."
Miami Herald
9 hours ago
- Miami Herald
G-7 agrees to exclude U.S. companies from 15% minimum tax
June 29 (UPI) -- Group of Seven nations agreed to exempt U.S. companies from a 15% minimum corporate tax rate, the countries said in a joint statement. The nonbinding deal was announced Saturday but still requires approval from the 38-member Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development that established the 2021 agreement on taxing companies. G-7 nations are part of the OECED. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had proposed a "side-by-side solution" for American-headquartered companies that would be exempt from the Income Inclusion Rule and Undertaxed Profits Rule "in recognition of the existing U.S. minimum tax rules to which they are subject." The massive spending bill now being considered in Congress originally included a "revenge tax" that would have imposed a levy of up to 20% on investments from countries that taxed U.S. companies. "I have asked the Senate and House to remove the Section 899 protective measure from consideration in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill," Bessent wrote in a multi-post thread on X on Thursday. The House has approved the massive legislation and the Senate is considering it. "It is an honorable compromise as it spares us from the automatic retaliations of Section 899 of the Big, Beautiful Bill," Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti told local media. "We are not claiming victory, but we obtained some concessions as the U.S. pledged to engage in OECD negotiations on fair taxation," an unnamed French official told Politico Europe. The official called the "revenge tax" a potentially "huge burden for French companies." Trump has criticized this provision because he said it would limit sovereignty and send U.S. tax revenues to other countries. "The Trump administration remains vigilant against all discriminatory and extraterritorial foreign taxes applied against Americans," Bessent wrote Thursday. Trump has imposed a July 9 deadline for U.S. trading partners to lower taxes on foreign goods, threatening high duties on the worst offenders, including 50% on goods from the 27 European Union members. In April, a baseline tariff was imposed on most U.S. trading partners, with higher rates on certain companies and products. In 2021, nearly 140 countries agreed to tax multinational companies at the 15% minimum, regardless of where they were headquartered. In late April, the European Union, Britain, Japan and Canada agreed to exempt the United States from the 15% minimum tax on companies. "Delivery of a side-by-side system will facilitate further progress to stabilize the international tax system, including a constructive dialogue on the taxation of the digital economy and on preserving the tax sovereignty of all countries," the joint statement read. The agreement, according to the statement, would ensure that any substantial risks identified "with respect to the level playing field, or risks of base erosion and profit shifting, are addressed to preserve the common policy objectives of the side-by-side system." The G-7 includes Britain, France, Germany, Italy in Europe, as well as Canada, Japan and U.S. Before 2014, the group was known as the G-8 until Russia was expelled after annexing the Crimea region of Ukraine. The chairs of the House and Senate committees responsible for tax policy cheered the agreement. "We applaud President Trump and his team for protecting the interests of American workers and businesses after years of congressional Republicans sounding the alarm on the Biden Administration's unilateral global tax surrender under Pillar 2," Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, chair of the Senate Finance Committee, and Missouri Rep. Jason Smith, chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, said in a press release. The agreement also, however, has its critics. "The U.S. is trying to exempt itself by arm-twisting others, which would make the tax deal entirely useless," Markus Meinzer, director of policy at the Tax Justice Network, told Politico Europe. "A ship with a U.S.-sized hole in its hull won't float." Copyright 2025 UPI News Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
