Mike Smithson: SA Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia facing the most important week of his political career with stamp duty pledge
His budget response speech will be minutely scrutinised this week as an early indication of him having the right stuff to lead the state after the general election next March.
The Libs have finally gone on the front foot after a seeming endless policy vacuum with their chances of victory still at such long odds.
But they've now opened the door with an ambitious pledge to cut stamp duty for first home buyers on any property, new or existing, up to $1 million.
'The Liberals are for lower taxes for hardworking South Australians,' Tarzia told ABC radio.
'Helping people get into the housing market, who're taking 12 years to save for a deposit, is part of this ambitious new policy,' he said.
It seems all good on paper with an estimated saving of $50,000 for any struggling home buyer coping with a $1million debt.
So, what's the catch?
The Opposition concedes its plan will cost the SA Budget $100 million in lost stamp duty revenue.
The Government has done its sums and estimates it's more likely to be $130 million.
Treasurer Stephen Mullighan had a moment of hesitation when describing Vincent Tarzia's housing blueprint.
'Mr Tarzia is talking out of his…hat,' Mullighan claimed with an emphasised timely pause.
'It will benefit the vendor driving up the demand for homes and making buyers worse off,' he said.
'He's (Tarzia) happy to forego the revenue for an even high state debt.'
With SA's projected debt to hit $48 billion by 2028 every dollar of conceded revenue is obviously a problem for the Treasurer.
The Liberals are confident that 5,000 new home buyers would take up the offer but couldn't provide any conclusive independent analysis.
'The government is piling in the cash and they're banking millions,' according to Tarzia.
Both sides are claiming the high moral ground when it comes to battlers in the marketplace.
The Government already offers stamp duty relief for new builds and has also opened vast tracts of land in the outer suburbs.
It also boasts urban infill in areas closer to the CBD for those who want to live nearer to the city but on smaller allotments.
The Libs see their promise will appeal to more young people wanting to buy established homes just around the corner from mum and dad.
Some of Tarzia's critics say he's only appealing to a small potential supporter base who currently don't own homes.
The counter argument is that many of those voters have parents and grandparents who are desperately worried about their offspring ever being able to break into the real estate market.
Those older swinging voters may be ripe for the picking on political perceptions alone.
The government needs to be careful in dismissing the Libs' plan as ridiculous.
I'm increasingly convinced that Labor thinks it has the next election already won.
Most pundits in South Australia are also firmly of that view.
But policies create chatter which, in turn, send growing ripples across the political pond.
The Libs still have a raft of ideas to announce, but Tarzia's next task is to perform a showman-like presentation during his budget reply speech.
If he falters there, vital momentum is guaranteed to be lost.
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The state government is offering an initial relief package to affected fishing licence holders to waive fees from April to June. Experts partly attribute the bloom to a marine heatwave that started in September - with sea temperatures about 2.5C warmer than usual - combined with calm conditions, light winds and small swells.
