Trump's ‘big beautiful Bill' may not be a cure-all for Republicans?

Irish Times

3 days ago

As
Donald Trump
's flagship tax and spending Bill narrowly passed the US Senate on Tuesday morning, the president was 1,000 miles away, touring a new migrant detention centre in the Florida Everglades.
A room of Trump aides and supporters cheered as he was told the news. Minutes later, he batted away a reporter's question about whether the victory would be short-lived, given the Bill's uncertain path forward when it goes back to the House of Representatives for a final vote.
'It's a great Bill,' Trump replied. 'There is something for everyone.'
But Trump's bravado belied the next hurdles for the so-called 'big, beautiful Bill', which stands to be the defining legislative achievement of his second term in office.
First, Trump will need to muscle the Bill through the House, where several of his fellow Republicans have already threatened to vote against it, raising concerns about everything from its large price tag to specific cuts to Medicaid, the public health insurance scheme for low-income and disabled Americans.
The House originally passed an earlier version of the Bill by a single vote in May.
But even if the president is able to get House Republicans to line up behind the Bill in the coming days, he faces a big task in defending the legislation before an American public that already seems to be souring on it.
'They're going to have to sell this to the American people, because most people, most voters, are just becoming aware of this,' said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist.
Otherwise, he warned, 'this is largely going to be forgotten about, or the critics will continue to pounce on it, and voters will remember it in a negative way'.
Opinion polling has consistently shown the proposed legislation is largely unpopular because of provisions that would extend tax cuts for the wealthy while slashing healthcare and social programmes for the poor.
Non-partisan analysts have warned that the cuts to Medicaid in particular could strip about 12 million Americans of access to health insurance in the years to come. A Morning Consult survey, conducted at the weekend, found 50 per cent of voters opposed the 'big, beautiful Bill', while 36 per cent supported it.
As well as unanimous Democratic opposition, Trump has had to face down attacks on the legislation from some Republicans and other allies who have been disparaging his top domestic goal in Congress.
Elon Musk, the billionaire who recently left the administration after a spat with Trump, renewed his public criticism of the Bill on Tuesday. 'All I'm asking is that we don't bankrupt America,' he wrote on X.
Trump retorted by suggesting the government should cut subsidies benefiting Musk's businesses and later said he would take 'a look' at deporting him to South Africa, where Musk was born.
On Capitol Hill, three Republican senators out of 53 opposed the legislation, and continued to criticise it after Tuesday's vote.
'My vote against this Bill stems primarily from the harmful impact it will have on Medicaid, affecting low-income families and rural healthcare providers like our hospitals and nursing homes,' said senator Susan Collins from Maine.
Senator Lisa Murkowski (Republican-Alaska) after the Senate passed the contentious Bill, which she opposed, on July 1st. Photograph: New York Times
Even some Republican politicians who voted in favour of the Bill were complaining.
'While we have worked to improve the present Bill for Alaska, it is not good enough for the rest of our nation, and we all know it,' said Lisa Murkowski, who was on the fence but approved it at the 11th hour.
'My sincere hope is that this is not the final product,' she added, pleading for the House to make some changes.
Given the Republicans' narrow majority in the House and Democrats' unified opposition to the proposal, speaker of the House Mike Johnson – a close Trump ally – can only afford to lose a handful of votes if the legislation is to be approved by the lower chamber.
The Senate made several substantive changes to the version of the Bill that passed the House in May, driving up the cost of the legislation and imposing steeper cuts to Medicaid, angering some House Republicans.
An agreed-upon version needs to pass the House and Senate before being sent to Trump's desk to be signed into law by his self-imposed July 4th deadline.
Trump called on House Republicans to rally behind him on Tuesday afternoon, writing on his Truth Social platform: 'To my GOP friends in the House: Stay UNITED, have fun, and Vote 'YAY' ... GOD BLESS YOU ALL!'
Vice-president JD Vance took to X to hail the Bill for delivering on Trump's central 2024 campaign pledges, including 'large tax cuts, especially no tax on tips and overtime' and 'big money for border security'.
But that did not stop several House Republicans from lashing out at the Senate's version and insisting more changes be made to the legislation – a move that could derail any votes this week and force the House to blow through Trump's deadline.
'The changes the Senate made to the House passed Beautiful Bill, including unacceptable increases to the national debt and the deficit, are going to make passage in the House difficult,' Marlin Stutzman, a Republican member of the lower chamber from Indiana, said in a post on X.
Others struck a more upbeat note, but sought to downplay expectations that a deal could be done by the weekend.
'We will get there eventually, but I don't think it's going to be in the next couple days,' said Andy Harris, chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, an influential group of conservatives.
Johnson told reporters on Capitol Hill on Tuesday afternoon that he would press ahead with attempts to get the Bill to the president's desk by Friday.
'My objective and my responsibility is to get that Bill over the line,' the speaker said. 'We will do everything possible to do that.'
But with the midterm elections 16 months away, any legislative triumph for Trump and the Republicans may well prove to be pyrrhic.
'On the Republican side, when the Bill passed, there was a bit of sombreness that I don't think was expected,' said Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the Senate, after the vote. 'And that's because they knew deep in their hearts how bad this Bill is for them, their states and the Republican Party.'
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