Dalal Street Week Ahead: Technical indicators signal caution, not panic
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com .)
An attempt to break out of a month-long consolidation fizzled out as the Nifty declined and returned inside the trading zone it had created for itself. Over the past five sessions, the markets consolidated just above the upper edge of the trading zone; however, this failed to result in a breakout as the markets suffered corrective retracement.The trading range stayed wider on anticipated lines; the Index oscillated in a 749-point range over the past week. The volatility rose; the India Vix climbed 3.08% to 15.08 on a weekly basis. The headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 284.45 points (-1.14%)We have a fresh set of geopolitical tensions to deal with Israel attacking Iran. The global equity markets are likely to remain affected and India will be no exception to this. Having said this, the Indian markets are relatively stronger than their peers and are likely to stay away. Despite the negative reaction to the global uncertainties, Nifty has shown great resilience and has remained in the 24500-25100 trading zone in which it has been trading for over a month now. There are high possibilities that over the coming week, the Nifty may stay volatile and oscillate in a wide range, but it is unlikely to create any directional bias. A sustainable trend would emerge only after Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside or violates the 24500 level.The coming week is likely to see the levels of 25100 and 25300 acting as resistance points. The supports are likely to come in at 24500 and 24380 levels.The weekly RSI stands at 57.67; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line.The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has failed to break above the rising trendline resistance. This trendline begins from 21150 and joins the subsequent higher bottoms. Besides this, it reinforces the 25100 level as a strong resistance point. For any trending upmove to emerge, it would be crucial for the Index to move past this level convincingly.Overall, it is unlikely that the Nifty will violate 24500 levels. The options data shows very negligible call writing below 24500 strikes, increasing the possibility of this level staying defended over the coming days. Unless there is a situation with more gravity to be dealt with, the markets may stay largely in a defined trading range.The sector rotation stays visible in favor of traditionally defensive pockets and low-beta stocks. We continue to recommend a cautious stance as long as the Index does not move past the 25100 level and stays above that point. Until then, a highly stock-specific approach is recommended while guarding profits at higher levels.In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks.Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and is set to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty PSU Bank and PSE Indices are also inside the leading quadrant; however, they are giving up on their relative momentum.The Nifty Infrastructure Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Banknifty, Services Sector Index, Consumption, Financial Services, and Commodities Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. While stock-specific performance may be seen, the collective relative outperformance may diminish.The Nifty FMCG Index languishes inside the lagging quadrant. The Metal and the Pharma Indices are also inside the lagging quadrant, but they are improving on their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.The Nifty Realty, Media, Auto, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.Important Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Indian Express
27 minutes ago
- Indian Express
A tribute to economist Shankar Acharya, A World in Flux, explores what needs to be done to achieve India's goal of becoming Viksit by 2047
A confession — I have known Shankar Acharya, a friend and fellow cricket junkie, far longer than he or I are willing to admit. It is an honour to review 'A World in Flux – India's Economic Priorities', a timely and deeply researched collection of essays in honour of Shankar's thinking and contributions. The book is about what change is needed to allow India to meet its tryst with a destiny that is viksit by its 100th anniversary in 2047. The contributors are much more than eminent scholars — they are acknowledged experts in their fields. The biggest — and the most well-deserved — tribute to Shankar is that the contributors have chosen to write a learned and expert commentary. Much of what they have written and advocated as policy is spot on, so what is a reviewer supposed to do? I can summarise the issues raised by the authors, but the editors, Amita Batra and AK Bhattacharya, provide a must-read analysis — a model introduction to a very distinguished economist, policy advisor and policy-maker. There has only been one major policy question on which Shankar and I have disagreed — and continue to disagree — and that is the danger that fiscal deficits pose to growth and inflation. He, of course, initiated India's long-term fiscal policy in the early 1980s, at a time when such a roadmap was very much needed. Before going further, I want to add that we have differences — differences that arise not out of a difference in expertise or analysis but differences in our genes. Shankar, by his own admission, gravitates towards pessimism; and when I have to err, I err on the side of my DNA++ disposition. The 'what should be done about fiscal deficits' debate is a good point ofdeparture for illustrating why 'yeh dil mange more' than offered by the experts in the volume. Does India have a high fiscal deficits problem or a problem of plenty, one which allows policy makers from doing nothing (at best) or actually implementing bad policies? Sajjid Chinoy in his tour de force essay ('Getting Rich Before Getting Old') speaks about raising India's tax/GDP ratio from an already high level of around 19 per cent today. It is quite the fashion among Indian commentators (I include myself in this galaxy) to point to China as a worthy example to follow — when in doubt, do what China does and thou shalt succeed. China's tax/GDP ratio of 14.5 per cent in 2024 suggests we should radically decrease our rate of taxation. But our experts do not advocate that. Why? India's fiscal problem is one oftoo high taxation, not too little. 'Easy' revenue allows the government (state and central) to indulge in ever more wasteful expenditure (freebies) which slows growth. Our slow growth, relative to potential, is the problem, not that fiscal deficits are causing inflation to be at a historic low. The IMF orthodoxy of 'when in doubt, raise tax revenue' is now hopelessly outdated. Another example of divergence between necessary policy, and one offered by experts, pertains to the low share of manufacturing (and even the ever lower share of manufactured exports). We all agree that something needs to be done, but what? One favourite solution (like raising the tax revenue) is to join the China-led RCEP. This is dictated by the specious reasoning that since China leads in manufactured export growth, by joining RCEP we will do so too. However, 13 of 15 RCEP countries have lower growth of manufactured exports than before (joining) RCEP. As far as policy analysis goes, why not note that our two 'global champions' — Ambani and Adani-led enterprises — produce zero manufactured goods (unless an intermediate good like polyester is considered a final manufactured good, like shirts)? And why, iflack of textile growth is a problem (it is!), our reform experts (except Amitabh Kant) don't point to the fact that a very very low hanging fruit is the reduction of high import duties on manmade fibres? Why don't the experts argue that the government should choose winners like Ambani and Adani? The government should appoint these global experts to lead the march on manufactured goods. Instead of Production Linked Incentives (PIL) we should have EIL — Export Linked Incentives. If subsidies are involved (as they will be), the government should provide them. Learn from China (again) how to sidestep WTO regulations. This is how Korea, China and the US have succeeded — we will succeed too. Bhattacharya also has a much-needed, must-read chapter on the political economy of reforms. AK notes that in the near-50-year history of economic reforms in India, an important pattern emerges. 'But once the immediate economic crisis was overcome, the pace of implementing subsequent reforms slowed considerably'. Phrased differently, the story of economic reforms in India is that reforms stop because our politicians (and the Deep State behind them) are not risk-takers, but comfort-zone seekers. They like the comfort zone of 'not rocking the boat', and thereby insure that Viksit Bharat 2047 might very well be no more than a dream. Before ending, I have a quibble with even this most worthy chapter. Bhattacharya's path to reform is via consensus-building (the mantra of every failed and defeated optimist). But AK fails to note that the path to consensus is littered with sabotage by the major groups (or group) hurt by the proposed reforms. Why, if everything is as well-known and as dutifully documented by all of us, are we still asking for basic reforms in agriculture, manufacturing, and governance? Note that a Supreme Court survey conducted after the withdrawal of farm-reform legislation, found an overwhelming consensus (87 per cent) among farmers wanting the proposed farm laws reform. Bhalla is chairperson of the Technical Expert Group for the first official Household Income Survey for India. Views are personal
Economic Times
28 minutes ago
- Economic Times
India lacks adequate risk capital to realise its $5 trillion economy ambition: Kamakodi
Synopsis City Union Bank's MD & CEO, N Kamakodi, stated that India needs to bolster its risk capital to achieve its USD 5 trillion economy goal, despite having sufficient capital. Sanatan Mishra of SBI highlighted the strength of Indian banks in funding growth and the transformative role of UPI in financial inclusion. He emphasized banks' readiness to finance capital expenditure. PTI India has the capital to support growth but lacks adequate risk capital to realise its USD 5 trillion economy ambition, City Union Bank MD and CEO N Kamakodi said on emphasised that while India is now the world's fourth-largest economy, its low per capita income due to a high population remains a major challenge. He was speaking at the launch of the banking and finance helpdesk at the Merchants' Chamber of Commerce & Industry (MCCI)."Entrepreneurs should lead and bankers should support," he said, noting that chambers of commerce play a pivotal role in driving the pointed out that while Germany relies on debt and the US on equity to fund their economies, India must focus on building its risk capital pool to meet long-term goals. State Bank of India General Manager (Network-II) Sanatan Mishra said Indian banks are currently at their strongest position to fund growth."UPI has become a game changer for low-ticket transactions and has enabled inclusive financial access," he said, adding that banks are well-capitalised and ready to finance capital expenditure, provided the private sector can absorb the credit.
Economic Times
28 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Kothari Industrial Corporation acquires Zodiz, Jeetlo to strengthen mass footwear presence
KICL, the flagship company of the diversified D C Kothari Group, acquired footwear brands Zodiz and Jeetlo for an undisclosed sum, further expanding its presence in the mass-market footwear segment, an official said. Kothari Industrial Corporation Ltd had previously acquired noted overseas brands, including Kickers, and has set up a non-leather footwear park in Tamil Nadu's Perambalur district. The acquisition of Zodiz and Jeetlo, along with their associated sub-brands, will come into effect from August 4, 2025, the company said in a statement on Zodiz brand is promoted by Coimbatore-based Zaimus Trends Pvt Ltd and is known for its affordable footwear promoted by Haryana-based India Pvt Ltd, has a strong presence across e-commerce platforms. The acquisition is expected to provide KICL with a firm foothold in underserved and fast-growing consumer segments. Both brands retail products priced below Rs 1,000 per pair, catering to a quality-conscious and value-driven industry data, KICL said that footwear priced under Rs 1,000 accounts for nearly 80 per cent of total consumption, with the sector estimated to be valued between Rs 80,000 crore and Rs 85,000 crore annually."This is not just an acquisition; it marks the beginning of a new chapter that will unlock value for consumers, partners, and stakeholders," said KICL executive chairman Jinnah Rafiq company plans to focus its marketing strategy on tier-II and tier-III cities, offering products that align with evolving fashion sensibilities while ensuring comfort for daily wear, he added. Ahmed noted that the Indian footwear market is undergoing a "profound transformation", with per capita consumption currently at 1.9 pairs per annum-a figure expected to double by 2030. The domestic footwear industry is at a pivotal moment. India is witnessing a rapid shift in consumer preferences. Footwear is no longer seen as mere utility-it has evolved into a symbol of personal style and self-expression, he said.
