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Economic Times
28-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Time to exit overheated themes, enter emerging plays
The markets broke out after six weeks of consolidation, with the Nifty gaining 2.09%. Support levels have risen to the 25100-25150 zone, and leadership is expected to shift towards bottoming-out sectors. Focus should be on profit-taking in overperforming sectors and shifting to those with improved relative strength, with potential resistance at 25750 and 26000. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of .) After six weeks of consolidation and trading in a defined range, the markets finally broke out from this formation and ended the week with gains. Over the past five sessions, the markets have largely traded with a positive undercurrent, continuing to edge higher. The trading range was wider than anticipated; the Nifty traded in an 829-point range over the past few days. Volatility took a backseat; the India Vix slumped by 9.40% to 12.39 on a weekly basis. While trending higher throughout the week, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 525.40 points (2.09%).The breakout that occurred in the previous week has pushed the support level higher for the Index. Now, the most immediate support level has been dragged higher to the 25100-25150 zone, the one that the markets penetrated to move higher. So long as the Nifty keeps its head above this zone, it is likely to continue moving higher. Over the coming weeks, we are also likely to see a distinct shift in the leadership, with the sectors that were in the bottoming-out process taking the lead. This would also mean that one must now focus on taking profits in the spaces that have run up much harder over the past protecting gains, it would be wise to shift focus to the sectors that are likely to see much improved relative strength going forward from levels of 25750 and 26000 are likely to act as potential resistance levels for the coming week. The supports come in at the 25,300 and 25,000 levels. The trading range is likely to stay wider than weekly RSI is 64.58; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A large white candle emerged, indicating the directional strength that the markets exhibited throughout the pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty initially crossed above the rising trendline pattern resistance. This trendline began from the low of 21150 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. However, the Nifty consolidated above the breakout point for six weeks before finally resuming its move higher. The Index has pushed its resistance levels higher; as long as the Index stays above the 25000 level, this breakout will remain is also important to note that the Nifty's Relative Strength (RS) line is attempting to reverse its trajectory. This may lead to the frontline index improving its relative performance against the broader markets. Along with this shift in relative strength, it is also strongly recommended that one consider protecting gains in sectors that have risen significantly over the past several leadership over the coming weeks is likely to change, making rotating sectors even more important than before. While protecting gains, new purchases must be initiated in sectors that are showing improvement in momentum and relative strength. While some consolidation cannot be ruled out, a positive outlook is suggested for the coming our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 ( NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that only two sector Indices, Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty PSU Bank Index , are inside the leading quadrant. While the Midcap Index continues to rotate strongly, the PSU Bank Index is seen giving up on its relative momentum. These two groups are likely to outperform the broader markets Nifty PSE Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. This may result in the sector slowing down on its relative performance. The Nifty Commodities, FinancialServices, Infrastructure, Banknifty, and the Services Sector Index are also inside the weakening Nifty Consumption Index has rolled into the lagging quadrant. The FMCG Index and the Pharma Index also continue to languish inside this quadrant. The Nifty Metal Index is also located within the lagging quadrant; however, it is sharply improving its relative momentum compared to the broader Nifty Realty, Media, IT, Auto, and Energy Indices are located within the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to assume leadership over the coming weeks as they continue to improve their relative momentum and strength compared to the broader Nifty 500 Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at
Time of India
28-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Time to exit overheated themes, enter emerging plays
The markets broke out after six weeks of consolidation, with the Nifty gaining 2.09%. Support levels have risen to the 25100-25150 zone, and leadership is expected to shift towards bottoming-out sectors. Focus should be on profit-taking in overperforming sectors and shifting to those with improved relative strength, with potential resistance at 25750 and 26000. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of .) After six weeks of consolidation and trading in a defined range, the markets finally broke out from this formation and ended the week with gains. Over the past five sessions, the markets have largely traded with a positive undercurrent, continuing to edge higher. The trading range was wider than anticipated; the Nifty traded in an 829-point range over the past few days. Volatility took a backseat; the India Vix slumped by 9.40% to 12.39 on a weekly basis. While trending higher throughout the week, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 525.40 points (2.09%).The breakout that occurred in the previous week has pushed the support level higher for the Index. Now, the most immediate support level has been dragged higher to the 25100-25150 zone, the one that the markets penetrated to move higher. So long as the Nifty keeps its head above this zone, it is likely to continue moving higher. Over the coming weeks, we are also likely to see a distinct shift in the leadership, with the sectors that were in the bottoming-out process taking the lead. This would also mean that one must now focus on taking profits in the spaces that have run up much harder over the past protecting gains, it would be wise to shift focus to the sectors that are likely to see much improved relative strength going forward from levels of 25750 and 26000 are likely to act as potential resistance levels for the coming week. The supports come in at the 25,300 and 25,000 levels. The trading range is likely to stay wider than weekly RSI is 64.58; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A large white candle emerged, indicating the directional strength that the markets exhibited throughout the pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty initially crossed above the rising trendline pattern resistance. This trendline began from the low of 21150 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. However, the Nifty consolidated above the breakout point for six weeks before finally resuming its move higher. The Index has pushed its resistance levels higher; as long as the Index stays above the 25000 level, this breakout will remain is also important to note that the Nifty's Relative Strength (RS) line is attempting to reverse its trajectory. This may lead to the frontline index improving its relative performance against the broader markets. Along with this shift in relative strength, it is also strongly recommended that one consider protecting gains in sectors that have risen significantly over the past several leadership over the coming weeks is likely to change, making rotating sectors even more important than before. While protecting gains, new purchases must be initiated in sectors that are showing improvement in momentum and relative strength. While some consolidation cannot be ruled out, a positive outlook is suggested for the coming our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 ( NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that only two sector Indices, Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty PSU Bank Index , are inside the leading quadrant. While the Midcap Index continues to rotate strongly, the PSU Bank Index is seen giving up on its relative momentum. These two groups are likely to outperform the broader markets Nifty PSE Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. This may result in the sector slowing down on its relative performance. The Nifty Commodities, FinancialServices, Infrastructure, Banknifty, and the Services Sector Index are also inside the weakening Nifty Consumption Index has rolled into the lagging quadrant. The FMCG Index and the Pharma Index also continue to languish inside this quadrant. The Nifty Metal Index is also located within the lagging quadrant; however, it is sharply improving its relative momentum compared to the broader Nifty Realty, Media, IT, Auto, and Energy Indices are located within the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to assume leadership over the coming weeks as they continue to improve their relative momentum and strength compared to the broader Nifty 500 Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at
Mint
26-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Stocks surge, crude oil dips as war cries fade
Indian benchmark indices rose to reclaim levels last seen nine months ago, as investors cheered lower oil prices, a weaker dollar, and strong domestic flows back home. Market experts believe the combination bodes well for the bulls in the near term at least. As a ceasefire in West Asia after 11 days of conflict took hold, markets bet that the worst of the disruption was behind. The Nifty closed 1.21% or 304.25 points higher at 25,549, while the Sensex closed 1.21% or 1,000 points up at 83,775.87. Thursday's closing was the highest since 1 October when the Nifty traded at 25,796.9 and the Sensex at 84,266.29. The gains were led by HDFC Bank , Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finance, which together accounted for almost three-fifths of the Nifty's gains. Reliance Industries' market capitalization crossed ₹20 trillion for the first time in nine months to touch ₹20.23 trillion. It stood at ₹20.65 trillion on 27 September last year, when the Nifty touched a record 26,277.35. Dollar, derivatives Thursday's rally coincided with the expiry of the June series of derivatives—each series closes on the last Thursday of a month—which saw the Nifty gain almost 3% from 24,833.6 at the May expiry to 25,549 at the June expiry. As per provisional data from NSE, FIIs net bought shares worth ₹12,692 crore on Thursday, their highest single-day purchase since 28 June 2023. What aided the rally was the fall in the dollar index—which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro, pound and yen—to a one-year low of 97.22. A weaker dollar boosts returns from risky emerging market equities. Added to that was the cooling in Brent crude from $78.85 a barrel on 19 January at the height of the Israel-Iran conflict to $68.5 at the time of writing on Thursday. Global risk-on "Lower oil, dollar, cut in interest rates back home and rising domestic equity inflows have aligned Indian stocks with global peers, which are on a global risk-on," said Nitin Jain, CEO & CIO, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Singapore. Interestingly, Jain said that not just mutual funds, other domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also pumping money into Indian stock markets. In the first five months of 2025 through last Friday, net inflows of DIIs other than mutual funds, stood at $13 billion, more than the $11 billion invested in the whole of 2024. "This shows that not just MFs, but banks, insurance and pensions funds are upping the ante," he said. Cooling crude Cheaper crude benefits India, which imports 85%, or 5.5 million barrels per day, of its oil requirement. Investors turned richer by ₹3.5 trillion after Thursday's rally. Options data for the week ending 3 July indicate a 3% range for the market from 25210 to 25890, with a bias to the higher end of the range. This is supported by fear gauge India Vix falling to a three-month low of 12.59. The yearly average of the index is 15.52. A lower reading indicates confidence while a higher reading implies rising risk-off sentiment. In the past two days, global oil prices—particularly Brent—have cooled off, dropping below $70, which reflects easing geopolitical tensions, which had posed a major uncertainty for India, said Sachin Shah, executive director and fund manager at Emkay Investment Managers. With crude now below that threshold, a key risk appears to have receded, Shah added, saying that as far as geopolitical concerns go, India seems to be in a safe zone. What's next Moving ahead, earnings season, the return of global capital and further easing of crude prices will be the key triggers for Indian markets, say experts. "After three weak quarters in FY25, Q4 showed signs of stabilization. A supportive macro backdrop—driven by RBI's liquidity infusion and a deeper-than-expected rate cut—is expected to boost credit demand, which has been historically low. This sets the stage for a gradual earnings recovery," said Christy Mathai, fund manager at Quantum Mutual Fund. Also, the consensus for FY26 earnings growth of 10–11% appears achievable, especially with improving monsoons, rising rural income, and easing inflation, Mathai added. Shah from Emkay Investment Managers added that there may be a potential shift of global capital into emerging markets like India, as investors sell dollar assets and reallocate across geographies and asset classes. "So far, FII inflows remain muted, but any pickup could significantly boost sentiment," he said. Vinay Jaising, CIO and head of equity advisory at ASK Private Wealth said that FII ownership is at a 12-year low of around 16%, creating room for re-entry. Additionally, crude oil dropping below $65—well under India's $80 comfort zone—will further aid in containing inflation and managing fiscal deficits, Shah said. Strong outlook Jaising of ASK Private Wealth said the outlook for Indian equity markets remains strong going ahead. Domestic inflows, particularly from retail investors, are structurally strong and here to stay, as retail India's contribution to GDP via household savings has jumped from ₹0.4 trillion in 2014 to ₹4 trillion today equating to 1.3% of GDP—a 10x rise, Jaising said. "The rupee remains firm amid US political and debt concerns, while India's risk premium has declined. With earnings downgrades likely behind us and revisions likely ahead, the outlook seems strong," Jaising added.
Mint
19-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Uncertain times: Here's why index options trading is plummeting on Dalal Street
Options trading activity on both BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) plummeted to nearly four-month lows in the second week of June, as a sharp decline in trader participation coincided with the escalating Middle East conflict. A regulatory overhang from a high-frequency trading investigation might have also contributed, market experts said. Analysts said that many traders have opted to sit on the fence for a bit till greater clarity emerges on both fronts. During 9-13 June, BSE witnessed a 39% fall in average daily premium turnover (ADPT) of Sensex options to ₹10,511.48 crore from an average ₹17,187 crore the week prior (2-6 June). In the same period, NSE's ADPT sank 21% to ₹36,045 crore from ₹45,746 crore. This was the lowest weekly average premium turnover for both exchanges since the week of 24-28 February. In that week, BSE had posted a turnover of ₹8,857 crore, and NSE ₹32,686 crore, data from the exchanges show. Also read | Horror show on Dalal Street as US, Japan spook investors 'There is a risk-off, given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, which resulted in lower volumes," said Rajesh Baheti, managing director of Crosseas Capital, one of the country's leading proprietary traders. Jyoti Jaipuria, founder & managing director of Valentis Advisors added that the Middle East strife has created indecisiveness in the minds of traders, as 'one day you hear of talks and the next of reports that negotiations are off the table". The conflict, which commenced with Israel pounding nuclear and military assets in Iran since last Thursday and Iran retaliating thereafter, entered its sixth day on Wednesday despite US President Donald Trump warning the Iranian regime to surrender unconditionally. According to Rajesh Palviya, derivatives research head at Axis Securities, the uncertain situation has caused rapid fluctuations in volatility, causing many options traders 'to sit on the sidelines until greater clarity emerges". Read this | BSE, NSE cut website access outside India ahead of 'Operation Sindoor' Fear gauge India Vix, which rises when market uncertainty increases and falls when confidence increases, fell from 14.69 on 9 June to 13.66 on 11 June, only to jump to 15.08 on 13 June, a day after the Middle East conflict began. It closed at 14.27 on Wednesday, Bloomberg data showed. Vix is computed based on options pricing. Options traders generally sell calls and puts when volatility is high so that a fall in volatility enables them to pocket the premiums paid by options buyers. But if volatility changes frequently amid a potential market-moving event, there can be lesser participation by options traders. Volatility measures the rate and magnitude of the changes in asset prices. For instance, if Iran comes to the negotiating table, a risk-on sentiment would return, but if the war prolongs, a risk-off sentiment arises, making it more difficult for traders to make money, explained S.K. Joshi, consultant at Khambatta Securities. 'That's when aggressive trading stops and volumes dip," he said. There's another angle, too Another reason partly attributed to the steep fall in volumes is an investigation into trades run by a large foreign high-frequency trader (HFT), which has led to an element of caution creeping in among proprietary traders, according to Mayank Bansal, a UAE-based trader who specialises in options trading in India. 'Big prop traders have let go of some of the traders they employ, post news emerging of Sebi investigating a large international HFT which has allegedly manipulated the index movements through intraday strategies," said Bansal. 'They are waiting for this overhang to subside before hiring more people to run intraday trades." Also read | Market fear gauge VIX sees sharpest fall in 5 years. Know why While a Sebi official was not immediately available for comment, a person aware of the development confirmed the investigation. Equity derivatives trading forms a big part of exchange transaction charges, the mainstay of an exchange's revenue. Equity advisory firm Equentis' data shows that derivatives, of which options are an important part, contributed 24% to BSE's transaction income of ₹708 crore in FY24, when the bourse's derivatives segment began to gain traction, and 85% of ₹2,029 crore in FY25, with cash contributing to the rest. In the case of NSE, Equentis estimates that derivatives contributed to 89% of transaction fees of ₹12,120 crore in FY24 and 87% of ₹13,509 crore in the previous fiscal. And read | NSE investors hold tight as price surges in grey market
Economic Times
14-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Technical indicators signal caution, not panic
The Nifty experienced a setback, failing to sustain a breakout from its month-long consolidation phase, closing with a weekly loss of 1.14%. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to influence global equity markets, including India. Despite these uncertainties, the Indian market demonstrates resilience, remaining within the 24500-25100 range. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of .) An attempt to break out of a month-long consolidation fizzled out as the Nifty declined and returned inside the trading zone it had created for itself. Over the past five sessions, the markets consolidated just above the upper edge of the trading zone; however, this failed to result in a breakout as the markets suffered corrective trading range stayed wider on anticipated lines; the Index oscillated in a 749-point range over the past week. The volatility rose; the India Vix climbed 3.08% to 15.08 on a weekly basis. The headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 284.45 points (-1.14%)We have a fresh set of geopolitical tensions to deal with Israel attacking Iran. The global equity markets are likely to remain affected and India will be no exception to this. Having said this, the Indian markets are relatively stronger than their peers and are likely to stay away. Despite the negative reaction to the global uncertainties, Nifty has shown great resilience and has remained in the 24500-25100 trading zone in which it has been trading for over a month now. There are high possibilities that over the coming week, the Nifty may stay volatile and oscillate in a wide range, but it is unlikely to create any directional bias. A sustainable trend would emerge only after Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside or violates the 24500 coming week is likely to see the levels of 25100 and 25300 acting as resistance points. The supports are likely to come in at 24500 and 24380 weekly RSI stands at 57.67; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has failed to break above the rising trendline resistance. This trendline begins from 21150 and joins the subsequent higher bottoms. Besides this, it reinforces the 25100 level as a strong resistance point. For any trending upmove to emerge, it would be crucial for the Index to move past this level it is unlikely that the Nifty will violate 24500 levels. The options data shows very negligible call writing below 24500 strikes, increasing the possibility of this level staying defended over the coming days. Unless there is a situation with more gravity to be dealt with, the markets may stay largely in a defined trading sector rotation stays visible in favor of traditionally defensive pockets and low-beta stocks. We continue to recommend a cautious stance as long as the Index does not move past the 25100 level and stays above that point. Until then, a highly stock-specific approach is recommended while guarding profits at higher our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and is set to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty PSU Bank and PSE Indices are also inside the leading quadrant; however, they are giving up on their relative Nifty Infrastructure Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Banknifty, Services Sector Index, Consumption, Financial Services, and Commodities Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. While stock-specific performance may be seen, the collective relative outperformance may Nifty FMCG Index languishes inside the lagging quadrant. The Metal and the Pharma Indices are also inside the lagging quadrant, but they are improving on their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Nifty Realty, Media, Auto, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue improving their relative performance against the broader Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at
