Countdown to chaos

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Happy Monday. Thanks for reading Canada Playbook.
Let's get to it. Here's what's in today's edition:
→ The clock ticks toward Aug. 1.
→ The ethics disclosure to end all ethics disclosures.
→ TikTok asked Ottawa for an in-person meeting. Crickets so far in return.
THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING
TRADE DEADLINE — Eighteen days left until Aug. 1.
That's when the clock is set to run out on Canada-U.S. negotiations on an economic and security deal spearheaded by Ambo KIRSTEN HILLMAN and cross-border trade minister DOMINIC LEBLANC.
Unless, of course, the August date is a deadline in name only.
— Public-private relationship: Canadian officials routinely refuse to comment on the horsetrading going on behind closed doors, insisting that negotiating in public is unhelpful to a productive negotiation.
But they're contending with President DONALD TRUMP's apparent willingness to drop demands for all to see — most recently in a July 10 threat of 35 percent tariffs on Canadian imports that revived grievances about fentanyl, dairy and retaliatory tariffs.
— Meanwhile in Ottawa: Conservative MPs ADAM CHAMBERS, SHELBY KRAMP-NEUMAN, JACOB MANTLE, MATT JENEROUX, JASON GROLEAU and DAVID MCKENZIE have asked Liberal MP and committee chair JUDY SGRO to call a meeting of the House international trade committee.
— Kill 'em with kindness: 'Conservatives are ready to collaborate with the government, and all parties to protect Canadian jobs, industries and our economic future,' the CPC MPs wrote in a letter to Sgro.
They tied the meeting directly to ongoing cross-border negotiations, writing that it means 'Canadians, trade-exposed industries, and Parliamentarians may contribute to the negotiation process and ensure transparency.'
ETHICS — MARK CARNEY's critics are sinking their teeth into his sprawling ethics disclosures made public last week — late on a Friday in July.
— Recusal time: The ethics commissioner's office published the mother of all disclosures.
The PM attached sprawling annexes that detailed his investment portfolio (now placed in a blind trust) and an ethics screen that prevents him from participating in matters related to Brookfield Corp., Brookfield Asset Management, Stripe Inc. and a constellation of companies he formerly managed, or that are owned or controlled by Brookfield.
It was a mammoth package dated July 10 that followed all the rules and was posted online a day before Carney's 120th day in office — the deadline for disclosure.
— Opposition bugaboo: Still, Carney's critics wonder how he can possibly govern without coming into conflict with former dealings that touched so many corners of the economy.
Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE criticized the PM for making his conflicts public months after the election — and wants him to sell off his portfolio:
'Prime Minister Carney should sell all of his holdings and hand the cash to a trustee to have it invested in a truly blind trust, so he doesn't know what he holds,' Poilievre posted on X. 'Otherwise, he will always know how political decisions can affect his personal wealth.'
— Flashback: Poilievre isn't opposed to rich guys entering public life. Take NIGEL WRIGHT, who took leave from a lucrative gig at Onex for an influential gig as former Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER's chief of staff.
Here's how Poilievre characterized Wright's career move during a House committee meeting in 2010 where MPs put the incoming chief under the microscope:
'It is good to see people who have succeeded in [the] private sector making the sacrifice to come to serve the country in the public realm. We're very much pleased that you're joining the government to serve in that capacity,' Poilievre said.
ECONOMICS — Statistics Canada drops a summertime dollop of data tomorrow morning on the consumer price index.
— Inflation: Bank economists expect year-over-year growth in the consumer price index to come in at or just a hair short of the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target when June numbers are posted at 8:30 a.m. — a tick higher than surprisingly low price growth in May.
'We expect it is likely too early to see a significant increase in prices due to tariffs in Canadian and U.S. inflation data,' predict RBC's NATHAN JANZEN and ABBEY XU.
— Don't poke the bear: CIBC's AVERY SHENFELD advised the prime minister to tread carefully in high-stakes negotiations with a U.S. president who lashes out publicly on a whim — including last week's swipe at Canada.
'You've gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, and at some point, we'll have to give up on getting a fully satisfactory deal in round one,' Shenfeld wrote in his weekly lookahead note.
Shenfeld counseled consumers north of the border to play their part in boosting the economy without riling DONALD TRUMP: 'Buying Canadian, and avoiding U.S. goods and travel, is a more effective countermeasure because it's based on decisions by individuals and unlikely to trigger a White House response.'
— Interest rates: TIFF MACKLEM unveils the Bank of Canada's latest policy rate announcement on July 30. Scotiabank's DEREK HOLT isn't holding out for any movement on the 2.75 percent status quo.
Holt points to a pair of massive unknowns: Canada-U.S. trade talks, which might not conclude before the current deadline of Aug. 1; and the government's plans for its fall budget, which won't become clear before Macklem's next move.
The rhetorical question of the day: 'How can you adjust policy when you haven't a clue what trade and fiscal policies might unfold?'
THE ROOMS THAT MATTER
— Environment Minister JULIE DABRUSIN will be in Burlington, Ontario, at 10 a.m. to talk about the protection of fresh water in the Great Lakes.
For your radar
LEFT ON READ — TikTok CEO SHOU ZI CHEW scored a prime seat at DONALD TRUMP's inauguration and dined with him in December. Ottawa isn't extending any kind of olive branch to Chew.
Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY doesn't appear to be keen on meeting Chew anytime soon, despite his attempts to talk things out.
— First in Playbook: On July 2, Chew wrote Joly a letter requesting an urgent in-person meeting to discuss the government's ordered shutdown of TikTok Canada — but his request has so far gone unanswered. Read the full letter here.
Joly's office didn't respond to a request for comment.
— Zooming out: About six months after JOE BIDEN signed a bill forcing TikTok to find a new owner within a year or face a ban, the Liberal government ordered TikTok Canada to wind up their Canadian offices — in Toronto and Vancouver. The app will remain available in Canada even with domestic offices closed.
Ottawa agreed with Biden's take that TikTok, which is owned by China-based ByteDance, poses a national security threat. TikTok is challenging Canada's decision in court.
— Times they are a-changin': Trump has extended the TikTok sale-or-ban deadline for the third time this year. The White House has imposed a new Sept. 17 deadline to sell the video-sharing app, but any TikTok sale would require Beijing's blessing.
— In the letter: Chew argued the Liberal government ordered the wind up of TikTok Canada 'seemingly based on assumptions about TikTok's future in the United States which no longer hold true … Rather, by taking this action toward TikTok, Canada is making itself an outlier among Five Eyes nations and its other allies.'
— Proposal: Chew is hoping to mend the relationship with the federal government now that MARK CARNEY is prime minister. In his letter, he said Canada's concerns can be addressed by TikTok imposing tighter data security around the app, and bringing in new oversight and transparency measures around online safety, elections and foreign interference.
— Tick tock: Neither the government nor TikTok will say the precise date by which the company's Canadian operations need to shutter.
TikTok has said the dissolution would result in over 350 job losses and hurt the Canadian cultural sector. This week the company announced it was pulling its sponsorship from several Canadian arts institutions, including the Juno Awards and the Toronto International Film Festival.
— Last word: 'I believe that we both have a duty to meet face-to-face to discuss the impact on TikTok's Canadian users, creators, and employees,' Chew wrote.
MORNING MUST-CLICKS
— PIERRE POILIEVRE took questions on CBC's 'The House' — his first conversation with the public broadcaster since he took over as Conservative leader.
— New York magazine's SIMON VAN ZUYLEN-WOOD spent several weeks in Canada, and has a long feature out this morning: 'You Have No Idea How Furious the Canadians Are.'
— POLITICO's ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and NAHAL TOOSI report on sweeping layoffs at the U.S. State Department. Friday's 1,300 cuts hit bureaus and offices that managed foreign assistance programs and worked with energy policy, global human rights and refugees and migration issues.
— Canadian Sen. PETER BOEHM, a former diplomat, offers his two cents as Ottawa stares down spending reductions: 'It is my hope that whatever cuts are enacted at Global Affairs Canada, there will be some enlightened thinking about who we are in the world and how we provide the human resource support to act as Canada on the global stage.'
— The European Commission has backed down on digital taxes, GREGORIO SORGI reports from Brussels, 'a move that hands victory to Donald Trump and U.S. tech giants like Apple and Meta.'
— Abacus Data's DAVID COLETTO serves up KEIR STARMER's waning popularity as a possible cautionary tale for Canada's PM, whose government enjoys broad — but soft — support on affordability and housing priorities.
— Toronto Life looks at the city's potential plan to take on rats, 'breeding faster than their peers in New York, Chicago and Amsterdam.'
PROZONE
For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter.
In other news for Pro readers:
— EU and Ukraine launch €50M defense tech program.
— White House probe fuels speculation Trump could oust Powell.
— Germany plans to buy more F-35 fighter jets from the US.
— France launches criminal investigation into X over algorithm manipulation.
— Megalaw complicates Trump's plans to quickly ax renewable credits.
LOBBY WATCH
— The Pathways Alliance logged a June 1 meeting with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, Energy and Natural Resources Minister TIM HODGSON, Emergency Management Minister ELEANOR OLSZEWSKI and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC. 'Potential collaboration between industry and government in the area of greenhouse gas emissions' was on the agenda — including carbon capture and storage.
— The Canadian Canola Growers Association posted a July 4 meeting with Carney. Top priority: international trade.
— Crestview's ASHTON ARSENAULT posted a meeting on behalf of Capital Power, an Edmonton company that wants to power Alberta-based data centers that fuel 'world-changing innovation driven by AI.' The July 11 meeting included ANSON DURAN, chief of staff to AI Minister EVAN SOLOMON, and BENJAMIN EBADI, a western desk staffer in the minister's office.
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to former Cabmin RANDY BOISSONNAULT, former Sen. JIM MUNSON, Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE, journalist GRAYDON CARTER, former publisher RUSSELL MILLS and former mayor and MP ED HOLDER.
HBD + 1 to Counsel's ELIZABETH CAMPBELL.
Spotted: Former PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU, posing with an employee at the Vancouver Aquarium wearing the same shirt he donned for that infamous Canadian Tire snap: a dark tee with the branding for 'Anxious Leaders,' a workplace mental health initiative headed by CHELSEA MADRYGA, the PMO's former workplace wellness and HR adviser.
Liberal MP JAKE SAWATZKY, marking the opening of a local pool by jumping in fully suited up — MP pun included.
Noted: Former Hamilton Centre MP MATTHEW GREEN and Rimouski Mayor GUY CARON have each ruled out a run for NDP leadership.
Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW called out the U.S. lawmakers who complained about smoke from Canadian wildfires.
Movers and shakers: Former Liberal Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI officially starts his new job as the PM's principal secretary today … KEEAN NEMBHARD returns to the Hill as press secretary to Environment Minister JULIE DABRUSIN.
Media mentions: The Star's ANA PEREIRA has won the Edward Goff Penny Memorial Prize.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.
TRIVIA
Friday's answer: Then-PM ROBERT BORDEN was the first to deliver a speech in the House of Commons after the original Centre Block was destroyed by a fire.
Props to ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, JONATHAN MOSER, DOUG SWEET, AIDEN MUSCOVITCH, ELIZABETH BURN, J. ROLLAND VAIVE and ALEXANDER LANDRY.
Today's question: Who added a vegetable garden to the property of Harrington Lake, the official country residence of Canada's PM?
Send your answer to [e-mail]
Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.