Billions missing? Truth behind world population ‘miscount'
According to Worldometer's live count, which is actually quite overwhelming to stare at for longer than a few minutes, the global population is currently pinned at 8.2 billion people.
But what if that figure is way off?
A new study from Finland's Aalto University has uncovered startling evidence, suggesting we might be vastly underestimating the number of people on Earth.
These 'missing' people aren't hidden - they're said to be living in rural areas right under our noses.
The study analysed data from 307 rural dam projects across 35 countries, including China, Brazil, Australia, Poland, India, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam, between 1975 and 2010.
These projects required the resettlement of populations providing records of displaced individuals.
The figures were compared with five widely used global population datasets, and according to postdoc researcher Josias Lang-Ritter, whose findings were published in the scientific journal Nature Communications, these tallies tell a very different story.
GRUMP: Underestimated rural populations by 67%
LandScan: Underestimated rural populations by 68%
Lang observed: 'We were very surprised to see how large this underrepresentation is.'
Andrew Tatem, Director of WorldPop, clarified to New Scientist that their grid-level estimates combine broad census and satellite data, and that the quality of satellite imagery before 2010 is less reliable.
'The further you go back in time, the more those problems come about,' he says. 'I think that's something that's well understood.'
Tatem suggests that advances in machine learning and AI could help to fill these gaps.
Rural populations are often overlooked because census teams struggle to reach remote areas, contend with poor infrastructure, track people who move frequently, and work with limited resources.
Additionally, population estimates are typically developed for cities where people live in close proximity, often failing to accurately capture the dispersed nature of rural communities.
'The impacts may be quite huge, because these datasets are used for very many different kinds of actions,' Lang explains.
'This includes planning transport infrastructure, building healthcare facilities and risk reduction efforts in natural disasters and epidemics.'
'We can say that nowadays, population estimates are likely conservative accounting, and we have reason to believe there are significantly more than these 8 billion people.'
But hold off on telling your trivia team for now, because not everyone is sold.
'The study suggests that regional population counts of where people are living within countries have been estimated incorrectly, though it is less clear that this would necessarily imply that national estimates of the country are wrong,' says Associate Professor Martin Kolk from Stockholm University, Sweden.
Dr Stuart Gietel-Basten from Hong Kong University of Science and Technology called the idea 'not realistic,' telling New Scientist that 'if we really are undercounting by that massive amount, it's a massive news story and goes against all the years of thousands of other datasets.'
'I think it's a very big jump to state that there is a great undercount in places like Finland, Australia, Sweden, and other places with very sophisticated registration systems, based on one or two data points.'
However, despite his strong doubts, Gietel-Basten agrees it couldn't hurt to 'invest more in data collection in rural areas.'
True or not, Census Bureau surveys undercount young children in some regions, especially girls, due to cultural or bureaucratic biases.
A preliminary response from First Focus on Children to the 2030 Census proposal, highlights that 'Children under five are especially likely to be missed if they live in complex or multi-family homes, live with grandparents or other relatives, are poor and/or experiencing homelessness, move frequently, are children of colour, or are linguistically isolated.'
People forced out by conflict also often move without official records, and satellite imagery relying on city lights miss rural homes without electricity.
Several factors like these could be skewing population data.
But are billions of people really living off the literal grid, or is this just another bold theory?
Experts remain sceptical, but it could completely change how we see global growth and development.
Then again, maybe we're undercounting the world population because half of us are now just AI chatbots pretending to be humans.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
ABC News
a day ago
- ABC News
Russian and Chinese plans for Antarctic expansion spark alarm
Experts warn Russia and China's plans to expand their presence in Antarctica may be linked to mining or military ambitions that are at odds with the nature reserve's peaceful governing principles. Australia was among 58 signatories to the Antarctic Treaty, which covers activity in the region, which met behind closed doors in Milan in June and July. Earlier this year, China announced plans to build a sixth permanent research station in Antarctica, while Russia is reopening and upgrading stations, as well as building a new runway for long-haul aircraft. The two countries have also been accused of undermining conservation efforts by blocking new protections for marine areas. Some experts have raised concerns the infrastructure and logistical expansions could be underpinned by non-scientific motivations. Bill Muntean represented the United States at the 2023 meeting and is now a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a policy research not-for-profit organisation based in Washington DC. "There are significant questions and concerns over activities in the oceans off Antarctica," he said. "What are Russia and China doing with their scientific explorations?" The Antarctic Treaty, which came into effect in 1961, prohibits military activity on the continent, and promotes scientific research. China and Russia are both signatories. Compounding the two nuclear-armed superpowers' expansion blueprint is the fact the White House has announced deep cuts to its Antarctic funding, totalling about $US60 million ($91.9 million). Jeffrey McGee, an expert in the treaty from the University of Tasmania, said Russia, China and the US were "big players" in Antarctica. "This pullback of funding from the United States means Australia has to be ready to step up, in terms of maintaining and increasing our scientific and logistics presence," Professor McGee said. "We need to make sure that we maintain and grow our influence in the region to protect that national interest." Professor McGee said some scientific equipment that had been installed on Antarctica could have dual uses. "What we are talking about here are infrared telescopes, GPS and ground-station receivers that can communicate with satellites," he said. "More and more of that equipment has been put into Antarctic research stations. "That gives rise to the possibility of that equipment having a dual purpose, in the sense that it can be used for scientific uses, but it can also interface with military and surveillance satellites, upload and download information or be involved in military command control communication systems." Increasing a strategic footprint in Antarctica could allow nations to secure future access to natural resources, strengthen geopolitical influence, and have a greater say in shaping the continent's future rules. Antarctica offers untapped potential and global leverage when it comes to science and security, as data from research stations that collect scientific data can also be used for military or intelligence purposes. Building outposts also gives countries a physical and technological presence that could be repurposed in the future. A report by the UK parliament's Environmental Audit Committee released last month highlighted how Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine deepened the geopolitical rift among signatories to the Antarctic Treaty. It questioned the purpose of Russia's seismic surveys in Antarctica, suggesting they could be about identifying natural resources. "Geopolitical tension and the prospect of potential mineral reserves are straining peace and environmental protection in Antarctica," the report found. "Antarctica's potential reserves of oil, coal and iron ore present a risk of future conflicts." The committee's chair, Tobi Perkins, told the ABC that Russia and China's expansion in Antarctica needed to be watched closely. "At this stage we don't know exactly what we should be worried about, but in the absence of dialogue and clarity and transparency, the Antarctic Treaty partners must maintain robust oversight," the MP said. While Russia and China's expansion plans are within the rights of the Antarctic Treaty, Mr Muntean says he wants the number of inspections of bases on the continent to increase. Under the treaty, countries are encouraged to hold each other to account over compliance issues. For example, Australia has conducted inspections in Antarctica for more than 60 years, including at bases operated by China, Russia and Moscow's puppet state, Belarus. "One can speculate on any number of things that can be happening in Antarctica," Mr Muntean said. "There hasn't been evidence of commercial mining that I've seen, just a lot of concern that the scientific activity could eventually lead to commercial mining. "But if there are any questions about what is down there for military equipment, personnel or reconnaissance, we need to check it out. "Shine the flashlight underneath the bed — is that a teddy bear or is it some scary monster? We've got the flashlight. Use it."
News.com.au
2 days ago
- News.com.au
Humanoid robots embodiment of China's AI ambitions
Serving craft beer, playing mahjong, stacking shelves and boxing, the dozens of humanoid robots at Shanghai's World AI Conference (WAIC) this weekend were embodiments of China's growing AI prowess and ambition. The annual event is primed at showcasing China's progress in the ever-evolving field of artificial intelligence, with the government aiming to position the country as a world leader on both technology and regulation as it snaps at the United States' heels. Opening the event on Saturday, Premier Li Qiang announced China would set up a new organisation for cooperation on AI governance, warning the benefits of development must be balanced with the risks. But in the cavernous expo next door, the mood was more giddy than concerned. "Demand is currently very strong, whether in terms of data, scenarios, model training, or artificial construction. The overall atmosphere in all these areas is very lively," said Yang Yifan, R&D director at Transwarp, a Shanghai-based AI platform provider. This year's WAIC is the first since a breakthrough moment for Chinese AI this January when startup DeepSeek unveiled an AI model that performed as well as top US systems for an apparent fraction of the cost. Organisers said the forum involved more than 800 companies, showcasing over 3,000 products -- the undeniable crowd pleasers being the humanoid robots and their raft of slightly surreal party tricks. At one booth, a robot played drums, half a beat out of time, to Queen's "We Will Rock You" while a man in safety goggles and a security vest hyped up a giggling crowd. Other droids, some dressed in working overalls or baseball caps, manned assembly lines, played curling with human opponents or sloppily served soft drinks from a dispenser. While most of the machines on display were still a little jerky, the increasing sophistication year-on-year was clear to see. The Chinese government has poured support into robotics, an area in which some experts think China might already have the upper hand over the United States. At Hangzhou-based Unitree's stall, its G1 android -- around 130 centimetres (four feet) tall, with a two-hour battery life -- kicked, pivoted and punched, keeping its balance with relative fluidity as it shadowboxed around a ring. Ahead of the conference's opening, Unitree announced it would launch a full-size humanoid, the R1, for under $6,000. - 'Digital humans' - Most high-tech helpers don't need hardware though. At the expo, AI companions -- in the form of middle-aged businessmen, scantily clad women and ancient warriors -- waved at people from screens, asking how their day was, while other stalls ran demos allowing visitors to create their own digital avatars. Tech giant Baidu on Saturday announced a new generation of technology for its "digital humans" -- AI agents modelled on real people, which it says are "capable of thinking, making decisions, and collaborating". The company recently ran a six-hour e-commerce broadcast hosted by the "digital human" of a well-known streamer and another avatar. The two agents beat the human streamer's debut sales in some categories, Baidu said. Over ten thousand businesses are using the technology daily already, the department's head Wu Chenxia told AFP. Asked about the impact on jobs -- one of the major concerns raised around widespread AI adoption -- Wu insisted that AI was a tool that should be used to improve quality and save time and effort, which still required human input. In China, the integration of AI into everyday life is beginning to pick up pace. At WAIC, Baidu also announced it had been granted a permit to operate fully driverless robotaxis in parts of the massive Pudong district, the service's first foray into downtown Shanghai. For now, few visitors to the WAIC expo seemed worried about the potential ramifications of the back-flipping dog robots they were excitedly watching. "When it comes to China's AI development, we have a comparatively good foundation of data and also a wealth of application scenarios," said Transwarp's Yang.
ABC News
5 days ago
- ABC News
Can Trump contain China's AI boom?
Sam Hawley: For so long, the tech bros of Silicon Valley have dominated the AI race. Now there's a boom underway in China, giving them a run for their money and Donald Trump doesn't like it. Today, Kyle Chan from the global policy think tank, the Rand Corporation, on why the president is so desperate for the US to beat Beijing. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Sam Hawley: Kyle, there's a global race going on right now to be the world leader in AI. This is a race basically to make technologies that rival the human brain, right? Kyle Chan: Yeah. So there really is this global race. And in particular, you have the US and China with many of the world's best AI models. And it's quite impressive to see almost every day, it feels like a new model coming out with new advanced capabilities. So, yes,getting close, if not even beating what we can do ourselves. Sam Hawley: Yeah, it's fascinating to watch how quickly this is moving. Donald Trump, US President: I don't like the name artificial anything because it's not artificial. It's genius. It's pure genius. Sam Hawley: Donald Trump, of course, wants to make sure that America wins this race. Donald Trump, US President: America is the country that started the AI race. And as president of the United States, I'm here today to declare that America is going to win it. We're going to work hard. We're going to win it. Sam Hawley: He even gave a speech with that title, winning the AI race. Donald Trump, US President: Because we will not allow any foreign nation to beat us. Our children will not live on a planet controlled by the algorithms of the adversaries advancing values and interests contrary to our own. Sam Hawley: He's pretty invested in this, isn't he? Kyle Chan: That's right. Yeah, this has been a big topic throughout his administration so far. I think a lot of what US policy is focused on, including the current Trump administration, is on winning the race to AGI. I think there's a strong sense that this could be a pivotal turning point. Sam Hawley: Remind me, what is AGI? Kyle Chan: So artificial general intelligence. There's this idea that perhaps one day it could reach a point where it could replicate or even exceed the abilities of humans to do, say, certain kinds of office work or certain kinds of research. This could even extend into areas like military capabilities, like autonomous weapon systems, for example. Reaching this stage where AI is as good as, if not better than, human reasoning. Sam Hawley: So we might not be needed actually anymore. We won't need to think anymore, right? Kyle Chan: We'll see. Sam Hawley: Exactly. All right. Well, Kyle, of course, up until now, the US has really dominated this market. All the big tech giants who've developed AI, things like ChatGPT, they're sitting there in Silicon Valley. Kyle Chan: Oh, yeah. So you have OpenAI, currently led by Sam Altman. You have Google, which has been coming out with a number of various sort of cutting edge models with its Gemini series. You have Claude, which is very well known from Anthropic, well known for its coding capabilities. You have Meta as well as xAI. So there's actually quite a quite a large roster of strong American AI companies. Sam Hawley: So for many, many years, America's really led the world when it comes to AI development. But as you say, China has been creeping up on it. And that has the US administration a bit worried. It even tried to stop Beijing's advancement in this space, didn't it? By banning Nvidia from selling advanced chips to China. Just remind me what happened then. Kyle Chan: Yes, that's right. So this was actually in the Biden administration. You had very strong export controls placed on especially Nvidia's more advanced chips. And so here you actually have several rounds of downgrading of what kinds of Nvidia chips could be exported in China. Sam Hawley: So the US, in part, was saying that it was deeply concerned that AI could be used by the Chinese for military purposes. Kyle Chan: That's right. Yeah. And, you know, to be sure, it was also part of this broader idea that advanced semiconductors in general can be used for a whole range of important applications. So in addition to AI, there are also more direct military implications for this ban. Sam Hawley: All right. So Biden brought in this ban to stop these really advanced chips from being exported from the United States to China. But intriguingly, Trump just recently has now removed that ban. Do we know why he did that and how significant is that decision? Kyle Chan: Yes. What's interesting is I think whereas before people expected maybe a continuous ratcheting up of these export controls, Trump has reversed the ban on the H20 chips. Interestingly, a new line of argument has gotten a lot of prominence, which is that Nvidia and other US tech companies who sort of, you know, quote, unquote, sell the picks and shovels, that is, build the infrastructure and build the sort of underlying platforms for AI development, that American companies should be the ones who are dominant in the world and that people should build on the American tech stack as it were, rather than cede, say, the Chinese market to its competitors like Huawei, which is also developing its own AI chips. So the idea here was that rather than block out the Chinese market entirely, that the US should stay engaged, at least in terms of providing some kind of sweet spot of infrastructure, but not not too advanced in order to actually accelerate China's efforts. Sam Hawley: And that's the argument that the Nvidia boss, Jensen Huang, has been making to Donald Trump. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO: This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for America to have AI technology leadership. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for China to have AI leadership. And if we want to be a leader, we have to engage developers all over the world. We have to engage markets all over the world. Sam Hawley: So the best way to beat China at AI is to actually help China to compete. Have I got that right? Kyle Chan: Yes. Yes. The logic, it can be hard to parse out sometimes, but yes, this is one of the main arguments. Sam Hawley: All right. So, Kyle, Donald Trump, he's delivered this speech outlining the importance of the US dominating the AI market. Donald Trump, US President: America needs new data centres, new semiconductor and chip manufacturing facilities, new power plants and transmission lines. And under my leadership, we're going to get that job done. Sam Hawley: But as we mentioned, in China, it's full speed ahead. There really is a boom going on there right now, isn't there? Kyle Chan: Absolutely. Yeah. So, I mean, everyone now knows about DeepSeek and the DeepSeek moment. News report: The release of a high performing Chinese rival to chat GPT has sent shockwaves through the global tech sector and caused US tech stocks to fall. Kyle Chan: A Chinese AI model for the first time seemed to be almost on par with the US leading models. And this was done at a fraction of the cost in terms of compute. And this was done sort of in defiance of US efforts to put on export controls and to restrict Chinese compute capacity. But DeepSeek is really the tip of the iceberg. So there's a whole set of very competitive Chinese AI models. You think about Alibaba's Qwen, you think about Tencent, ByteDance. There's Moonshot, a whole host of startups as well. Most of these companies now, they all have their own sort of chatbot like chat GPT, where anyone can download the app or go to the website and just start chatting directly with the AI model, the underlying model itself. And so what's interesting is that it's not just one company or one startup per se. It's actually a whole sort of lineup, in a way, a Chinese team competing with the US one. Sam Hawley: And these AI apps, what they haven't needed, that chip that was banned, I guess, from being exported from the United States. China's done it on its own, has it? Kyle Chan: Well, yeah. So it's complicated because actually many of these Chinese AI companies, they do use Nvidia chips. They do, including the chip that was banned, the H20. At the same time, though, they're trying to experiment and test Chinese domestic alternatives, knowing very well that, you know, in the long run, they may no longer have access to Nvidia's GPUs. So there's a question right now within the Chinese tech community, Chinese AI policy about how hard to push for this domestic alternative versus to continue to rely on what are otherwise better performing Nvidia chips. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, Kyle, just unpack for me now. What's actually driving this AI boom in China? Because it has a lot to do with the Communist Party's backing of this, doesn't it, of the government's funding of it. Kyle Chan: That's right. So what's interesting is that Beijing is pouring resources into the entire, what I call the entire AI tech stack. So they're investing in not only chips, as we mentioned earlier, but in the rollout of data centres, often tied to renewable energy. They are investing in the development of foundation models. They have special local government AI labs. And then all the way to applications, especially in so-called hard tech areas like robotics and industrial automation. So you can see sort of this full range of support. And of course, at the very heart of this, I think is ultimately the emphasis on talent development and basic research. So a lot of the universities in China, many of them are producing really world class AI developers. Sam Hawley: And we've seen this before, haven't we? From the Chinese government when it wanted to boost the EV market. It did the same thing. It did the same thing with solar and it works. Kyle Chan: Yeah, that's right. They've tried this playbook before and they're going to try it again. But the funny thing is, yeah, AI is sort of a different beast. And so, you know, for example, just in the past year, we have this shift towards reason models. And that already has thrown a bit of a wrench into some of the industrial policy efforts that China has made in AI. So some of the data centre build out that was government backed. You know, there's a question now about whether that is fit for purpose with the shift towards this sort of new AI paradigm. And it could change again. So it's a fast moving space. Sam Hawley: All right. So, Kyle, there is this race going on between the United States and China to dominate AI development. But tell me, why is that so important? Why does it matter who wins this race in the end? Kyle Chan: So the AI race, I think, is especially important now because it has implications for economic growth, long term productivity. There's a sense both in the US and in China that AI could help boost a whole range of sectors. From education, health care, biotech, drug discovery, manufacturing services. So on the one hand, you have this sort of economic implication. On the other hand, there are military implications. So AI could be used for developing autonomous systems. You think about drones or swarms of drones that are able to navigate on the battlefield on their own. Or you think about missile defence capabilities that might use AI or satellite technology that might use AI. So there are both security and economic repercussions for, you know, the question of sort of who is ahead in the race for AI. Sam Hawley: Yeah. And I note that Sam Altman from OpenAI says he wants to make sure that democratic AI wins over authoritarian AI. What do you make of that? Kyle Chan: Yeah, that's right. I mean, it's an interesting idea because right now there's also this battle over sort of diffusion and who can get their models out into the world. And so it's not just a matter of, you know, who has the best model, but also which model is more widely used. And I think right now what's interesting is a lot of Chinese models are open source or at least open weights. That is people, companies, organisations, individuals can download these models and run them locally, run them themselves. And what this means is that a Chinese type of AI might end up diffusing more broadly, perhaps maybe outside of the U.S. into other countries. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, it's a fascinating battle. Kyle, what do you think? What's your prediction? Who's going to come out on top in the end? Kyle Chan: In a sense, I do see that with some of the industrial policy in China, with some of the government support, as well as perhaps more importantly, different sorts of attitudes towards AI in China. There are some surveys that have shown that people in China more broadly seem to be more open to adopting AI and see it as a more positive force in society. That could play a key role in rolling out and incorporating AI into more areas of life. So that's one area that I would watch very closely. Sam Hawley: Kyle Chan is a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and an adjunct researcher at the Rand Corporation. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead and Sam Dunn. Audio production by Cinnamon Nippard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.
