Japan, after 101 Tough Days, Learns a Hard Lesson about U.S. Alliance

Yomiuri Shimbun

a day ago

It was only five months ago that President Donald Trump heralded the 'fantastic relationship' between the United States and Japan, as he sat alongside Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the first Asian leader to visit him in his second stint in the White House.
This week, Ishiba was again first in line – but not in a good way. He became the first foreign leader to receive a scathing letter from the U.S. president, threatening steep new tariffs if Tokyo didn't meet Trump's new deadline for a trade deal.
The letter stunned some officials in Japan, a security ally for seven decades and a key partner in U.S. efforts to counter an increasingly assertive China.
But the deadlocked trade negotiations have frustrated the American president – who recently called Japan 'so spoiled.' Now, Tokyo is learning that being one of Washington's best friends doesn't carry much sway in Trump's second term, analysts say.
'They're coming to a very hard realization that Japan is not special enough to Trump,' said Mireya Solís, director of the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. 'At the end of the day, when Trump sees deficits, he's not thinking, 'This is my close security partner.' He sees deficits.'
It seemed like Japan was on good footing when it became one of the first countries to begin negotiations, in April. Washington wanted to strike a swift deal with Tokyo to use as leverage against China, which runs its biggest trade deficit, analysts say.
Trump even showed up to the first round of talks and gave Japan's trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa a signed red 'Make America Great Again' cap, which Akazawa wore in the Oval Office as he posed for a photo with two thumbs up.
'A Great Honor to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!' he wrote on Truth Social after speaking with Akazawa.
But there was not much progress at all. Japan did not readily give in to the Trump administration's demands, not least because of the domestic political considerations that constrained Ishiba's administration from making concessions on key industries, such as autos, steel and rice. Ishiba faces a tough parliamentary election on July 20 that could cost the ruling party its majority in the upper house – and Ishiba his premiership.
Japanese officials hoped Trump would carve out a tariff-rate quota, like he did for some allies during his first term. But the president quickly made it clear no one would be exempt this time around – not even Japan.
'Japan is being treated the same as other Asian nations, and that is not making policymakers here happy,' said Tokuko Shironitta, Japan country director at the Asia Group, a consultancy.
As trade talks dragged on, Ishiba repeatedly stressed his nation's unique standing as the largest foreign investor in the United States since 2019, creating 1 million jobs. After all, touting those investments had worked with Trump before.
This time, it hasn't resonated. 'It feels like we're still in a dense fog,' Akazawa told reporters on June 10. They've now completed seven rounds of talks.
Hiroshi Oe, former chief trade negotiator who worked on the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal with the Obama administration, said Trump is making 'even more hard-line' demands than expected. 'Unfortunately, they no longer seem to operate under the assumption that they should treat [Japan] with any special consideration.'
Japanese officials may have underestimated Trump's deep-seated skepticism toward the country and relied too heavily on good will, experts say. Some Japanese newspapers and prominent thinkers are now calling on Japan to reconsider its tactics.
'I believe this was essentially a strategic mistake on the part of the Japanese government and the Ishiba administration,' said Kenji Minemura, senior research fellow on Japanese foreign policy at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, in Tokyo. 'We're now in a completely different phase from the first Trump administration. The U.S. wants different things now.'
Some analysts suspect this shift may reflect how Trump has felt about Japan all along. He developed an antipathy toward Japan when, as a real estate developer in the 1980s, he witnessed Japan's rise to become the world's second-largest economy and an existential threat to the U.S.'s economic dominance.
That was tempered in his first term, when former prime minister Shinzo Abe forged a personal friendship with Trump. Now, in the absence of Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, Tokyo no longer has that bridge.
'He's from the Japan-bashing generation,' Minemura said. 'That's why Trump's inherent suspicion of Japan has come back to the surface.'
Trump's attacks on Japan don't seem to be letting up anytime soon. In Tokyo, there are concerns that the allies are locked in a trade fight when they should instead be banding together, given security threats in the region.
'When our relations are sour, or seem to be sour from other countries' [view], I think that would only encourage Russia, North Korea and China,' said Ichiro Fujisaki, former Japanese ambassador to the United States.
Tokyo must find a way to negotiate with Trump, even if a perfect 'win-win' solution is not possible. The resolution, Fujisaki said, may be one where 'the U.S. win is a capital-letter 'Win,' and our win is a small-letter 'win.''
Such a resolution has proved elusive. Trump has been fixated on two matters with Japan: Autos and rice. These are also the two areas where Tokyo isn't willing to budge.
'Japan really doesn't have that many concessions to offer and the ones that it could offer, they're very reluctant to grant,' said Marcel Thieliant, Singapore-based head of Asia-Pacific research at Capital Economics.
Trump has repeatedly complained about the lack of American-made cars entering Japan compared to the volume of Japanese cars moving in the other direction. In 2024, Japan exported 1.4 million cars to the United States and imported just 16,074, Japanese government figures show. Japanese auto experts say U.S. cars have long been unpopular in Japan, because they are too big for its narrow roads and parking spaces.
The auto industry is the backbone of Japan's economy, and negotiators have been unwilling to bend on car tariffs. Japan may revisit auto safety standards that the U.S. says are making it harder for its imports to enter Japan. But it has so far unsuccessfully pushed the U.S. to roll back the 25 percent tariffs on cars and auto parts.
Rice is also a complicated issue for Japan, partly because of an affection for farming, partly because of taste.
The homegrown Japonica grain – known for its plump, round shape and natural sweetness – has been long cherished in Japan. It also becomes soft and sticky when cooked, and is considered an ideal grain for traditional Japanese foods such as sushi and rice balls.
But for Trump, rice has come to symbolize Japan's unfair trade barriers, experts say.
'Rice is the easiest way for him [Trump] to show that Japan has a closed market. It's symbolic,' said Oe, the former Japanese negotiator, who previously handled U.S.-Japan agricultural talks.
Trump has indeed been hammering this point home. 'Japan, our friend, charges us 700 percent [on rice], but that's because they don't want us selling rice and other [products],' Trump said during a tariff announcement on April 2.
Japanese officials say that's not entirely accurate. Under a World Trade Organization agreement, Japan has established a 'minimum access' system for rice imports, allowing up to 770,000 tons of rice to enter tax-free. The United States is the biggest exporter of rice to Japan, and the vast majority of it enters tax-free, trade statistics show.
Another factor helping open up Japan's rice market: A recent rice shortage that has sent prices soaring had forced Japan to accept more imported grain.
Still, dramatically increasing imports could leave farmers vulnerable to competition and draw the ire of the powerful agriculture lobby, making it politically difficult for Ishiba to move from his stance that protecting Japanese rice is a matter of 'national interest,' experts say.
But some say it may be time to reconsider that position, given the rice crisis and the stalled trade talks. Because foreign rice is cheaper, increasing imports can help more lower-income families as they cope with higher prices – and with proper messaging, voters may understand, analysts say.
'I believe it actually serves the national interest' to accept more U.S. rice, Oe said. 'It doesn't undermine Japan's position – in fact, it can create a win-win outcome for both Japan and its partners.'