YouGov poll has Labor ahead of Liberals in Tasmania but well short of majority
A YouGov poll of 1,287 Tasmanian voters from June 12 to 24 put Labor on 34 per cent of the statewide first preference vote, the Liberals on 31 per cent, independents on 18 per cent and the Greens at 13 per cent.
It's one of the first surveys of voting intention to be released during the state election campaign.
The result has Labor up 5 per cent from last year's state election, the Liberals down 5.7 per cent, and the Greens relatively steady.
The independent vote is 8.4 per cent higher than at the last election, but the poll does not measure support for individual candidates as it was conducted before nominations closed, with respondents indicating support for a generic independent.
YouGov's Paul Smith said if the result was replicated at the election, Labor could end up with one or two seats more than the Liberals.
"It's early days in this election, but I would see Labor as getting around 14 seats, and the Liberals 12 to 13, and the rest spread across the Greens and independents," he said.
Statewide, the difference between the two major parties was less than the poll's 3.4 per cent margin of error.
Parties need 18 seats to reach majority in the 35-seat lower house, with seven MPs elected in each of the five electorates under the Hare-Clark voting system.
The Liberals have governed with 14 seats since the last election, with confidence and supply agreements in place with crossbenchers, some of whom are progressive.
The poll shows the Liberals ahead in Bass and marginally leading in Braddon, the parties polled evenly in Lyons, while Labor has significantly more support in Franklin and Clark.
The gap between the parties was similar to an EMRS poll from mid-May, before the election was called, which had Labor on 31 per cent, the Liberals on 29, independents on 17 and the Greens on 14.
That poll included the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) on 6 per cent, but the party is not running candidates in this election.
YouGov also asked voters to rank their top three issues at the election, with 22 per cent listing 'investing more in health' as their number one issue, followed by 14 per cent wanting more public housing.
The 'pro' and 'anti' Macquarie Point stadium answers were listed separately, but when combined as a single issue, they reached 21 per cent.
This showed 12 per cent of respondents listing opposition to the stadium as their main issue, and 9 per cent listing their support for the stadium.
Mr Smith said the poll showed the majority of Tasmanians wanted the parties to focus on other issues.
"[They] provide opportunities for parties and candidates to campaign on those issues and win more votes."
Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said the figures showed Labor would get one more seat than the Liberals, and possibly two.
But he said it was still a wide-open race.
"At the time of this poll, it doesn't show a big clamour towards either side," Dr Bonham said.
"It doesn't show anyone looking like having an easy path to forming government.
"Labor could be five seats short on those numbers, although it might come up a bit when you account for independents being overestimated."
The shape of the crossbench will be a critical factor for the next government.
The last parliament included three progressive independents, and three JLN MPs, two of whom later sat as independents.
All six are running again — two of the former JLN MPs running for the Nationals, and one as an independent.
Anti-salmon farm campaigner Peter George is also running as an independent in Franklin. He received 21.7 per cent of the first preference vote in the federal election.
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