Masters 2025 Punch Shot: Who wins and who leaves Augusta National most disappointed?

NBC Sports

09-04-2025

The Masters Tournament commences Thursday. Who will don the green jacket? Who will leave dejected? Who might surprise along the way?
The GolfChannel.com team is on-site at Augusta National Golf Club and offers up some answers to the pressing questions at the year's first major.
Who wins the 89th Masters?
Ryan Lavner: Collin Morikawa. Everything seems to be coalescing for one of the game's most accurate players. Good form this season; he's tops in strokes gained. And good history to draw upon; three consecutive top-10s at Augusta, including playing his way into the final group a year ago. If he's at his sharpshooting best, it could be his time to bust his winless drought and nab a third leg of the Slam.
Rex Hoggard: Rory McIlroy. This is a head vs. heart conversation and without an undeniable alternative, the Northern Irishman is the statistical favorite by any measure. He's the only player this year on the PGA Tour to win twice — at a signature event and the circuit's flagship stop — and he does the one thing (strokes gained: approach) that Augusta National demands better than anyone else this season.
Brentley Romine: Justin Thomas. It's so easy to go with Scottie or Rory, but Thomas is back to being the superstar he used to be. He ranks top 10 in strokes gained: approach and is a top-40 putter, plus he's posted three top-10s in his last four worldwide starts.
Will a LIV play contend?
Lavner: Yes. Multiple. Jon Rahm has been a top-10 machine and feels great about the year ahead. Bryson DeChambeau is driving the ball as well as he ever has. And then there's other players who are trending in the right direction, such as Joaquin Niemann, who has never played better, or Tyrrell Hatton, who has been a consistent force on any tour. Also wouldn't be surprised if Phil Mickelson makes a run; he tied for second two years ago, and his game is in a much cleaner place at the moment.
Ryan Lavner,
Hoggard: Jon Rahm. Although the Spaniard is just one of arguably a half dozen LIV players who can contend at the Masters, he seems to be in the best form having finished inside the top 10 in all five events on the rival league this season and his record at the year's first major is undeniable with a victory (2023) and five top-10 finishes in eight starts.
Romine: Yes. Jon Rahm's T-9 at LIV Miami on Sunday was his worst finish of the season. He's fired up to redeem himself after last year's less-than-stellar green-jacket defense.
Will 10 to 12 under win again?
Lavner: No. Slightly deeper. Heavy rain Monday has taken some of the fire out of the course, and there isn't anything in the upcoming forecast – upper 60s, bright sunshine, mild breeze – that should frighten the players. These are ideal playing conditions, and the scores should reflect that.
Hoggard: Yes (11 under). There will be plenty of handwringing over the Monday rains that soaked the course and the notion a soft Augusta National will yield to the game's best, but the last four years have seen similar conditions and the winning scores have been 10 under, 10 under, 12 under and 11 under, respectively. These guys are good, as the old marketing material noted, but so is Augusta National.
Romine: No. Lower. The conditions are largely ideal with little wind in the forecast. Sure, there are four new — and firm — greens, but these guys are really good.
Who leaves most disappointed?
Lavner: Ludvig Åberg. In a small sample size he's proven to be a big-game hunter, playing his way into the lead at the Masters in his debut performance. But there are some significant question marks about the state of his game, as he enters the year's first major having missed the cut at The Players and Valero Texas Open. Most crucially this year, he's been untidy with his approach play, and that is – by far – the most critical component at Augusta.
Hoggard: Bryson DeChambeau. His love of the Masters is obvious and Augusta National is exactly the kind of serpentine test that brings out the best in the game's deepest thinker, but the equation has eluded him with just one top-10 finish in eight starts (2024). This doesn't feel like the year he figures it all out, but he won't stop trying.
Romine: Ludvig Åberg. After last year's runner-up, so many people are riding the young Swede to make a run again this week. But I just don't see it. He's barely inside the top 100 in both strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: putting. He's got the talent to certainly prove me way wrong, but I'm just saying I'm concerned.
What longshot could be in the mix?
Lavner: Russell Henley. Surprised the world No. 7's odds are this low (55-1), given his form entering the Masters. Though he's relatively short off the tee, he makes up for it with his dialed approach play and red-hot putter. He's the no-brainer choice here. Sepp Straka (75-1) and Patrick Reed (90-1) also warrant consideration given their recent play and course fit.
Hoggard: Russell Henley. The five-time Tour winner doesn't perfectly fit the mold of Masters champion but he is statistically an easy pick. Augusta National has the greatest GIR (greens in regulation) bias on Tour and Henley is third this season in GIR and sixth in proximity to the hole. If he can putt like he did last month when he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational he has the makings of a textbook longshot.
Romine: Sepp Straka at 75-1 is great value. The Austrian ranks in the top five in both strokes gained: approach and proximity, and he's poised to build on not only a dazzling start to his year but also his T-16 from last year's Masters. If you want someone a little deeper, look at J.J. Spaun at 130-1. Spaun debuted at Augusta National three years ago and posted a T-23. He's enjoying arguably the best golf of his career right now, and he's second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach.
Bryson DeChambeau addresses the media on the evolution of his approach at Augusta National, his focus of playing the golf course over the competition, tinkering his driver heads, and coming up from Northern California.