Trump Is Desperately Trying to Rig Economic Data in His Favor

Yahoo

19 hours ago

On Friday, Donald Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for the crime of doing her job. Earlier that day, the BLS had released new jobs numbers that showed anemic growth in July—just 73,000 jobs were added—and revised numbers for May and June that showed decreases in total jobs for those months. Overall, the picture was bleak: Just 106,000 jobs added over three months. The president, unsurprisingly, was furious, and as such, immediately began alleging an elaborate and nonsensical conspiracy to undermine his administration. 'Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can't be manipulated for political purposes,' Trump wrote on his bespoke social network Truth Social. McEntarfer wasn't the only federal employee in his sights; he also took the opportunity to lambaste Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has long been a target of his ire. 'The Economy is BOOMING under TRUMP,' he wrote in a wild run-on sentence with a variety of punctuation, 'despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting 'Kamala' elected—How did that work out? Jerome 'Too Late' Powell should also be put 'out to pasture.' (Powell was appointed by Trump in 2018.)
Trump is right, obviously, to be upset about the jobs numbers. They're really bad—the worst numbers since the height of the Covid pandemic. Before that, the last time there were jobs numbers this bad was during the Great Recession. But Trump, although he will never admit it, has no one to blame for the state of the economy but himself. His decision to fire McEntarfer—and, as a result, cast doubt on the reliability of all future data, not just from the Bureau of Labor Statistics but from any economic agency—will only make things worse.
After six months of deportations, purges, and chaos, it's easy to forget that the primary reason voters sent Donald Trump back to the White House was their widespread displeasure about post-pandemic inflation, which they blamed on Joe Biden. Prices ballooned during his presidency thanks to a variety of factors—shifts in consumer demand, supply chain disruption, even the war in Ukraine—few of which the administration had any real control over. By the time they stabilized, it was too late for Biden. By the end of his first year in office, a solid majority had concluded that inflation was his fault. It wasn't—but that hardly mattered.
Trump won in large part because he was in charge of the economy the last time it was good—in the period leading up the pandemic—and because, for whatever reason, voters didn't blame him when Covid-19 caused it to collapse. There were certainly other factors that played a role in his 2024 victory—Biden's age, his steadfast support for Israel's genocidal war in Gaza, Kamala Harris's decision to run a cautious campaign despite having only 107 days to press her case. But inflation was the primary driver. A lot of voters hated the Biden economy and didn't give the administration credit for getting inflation under control. They wanted something different. They got it.
Despite voters' dissatisfaction with it, the economy Trump inherited from Biden was actually pretty good: Unemployment was low, and inflation was under control. In six months, Trump has done everything possible to destroy it. Next Friday will mark the third installment of 'Liberation Day,' the nonsensical tariff regime he has imposed on most of the rest of the world, hitting key allies and trading partners like Canada and the European Union particularly hard.
These tariffs have caused the stock market to crash (though it has subsequently rebounded, sort of) and prices to rise, and they have ruptured a world economic order that America built for its own benefit. Many of our closest allies are now rethinking their relationships with the United States. Meanwhile, Trump has brayed about tariffs raking in $150 billion in revenue—a number that sounds big until you remember that it is literally a tax on American citizens. In just six months, the economy looks a lot like it did during the first half of Biden's term: layoffs, inflation, instability. The big difference is that without Trump—and specifically without Trump's tariffs—none of this would be happening.
The firing of McEntarfer makes a bad situation significantly worse. It's hard to think of a more unnecessary or more brutal act of economic self-destruction than, in one swoop, to shatter the integrity of the economic data produced by the federal government. If McEntarfer is removed—and it looks like she will be—then every statistic produced during the rest of Trump's term will be suspect. It was already hard to run a business, given the general instability and the insanity of Trump's tariffs. Now, given the lack of reliable economic data, it will be even harder.
Five years ago, at the height of the pandemic, Trump attempted to pressure agencies to lower the number of reported Covid-19 cases—all so he could seem like he had things under control. He's now attempting to manipulate jobs numbers in a similar way. It didn't work then. It won't work now.