Chance of 2032 asteroid strike have increased. Why scientists say not to worry
The near-earth object was discovered in 2024 and has stirred up conversation on social media because it will make a close pass by Earth — within 60,000 miles, the publication reported.
An impact with Earth would cause a massive explosion and impact crater, astronomers say.
The asteroid, known as Asteroid 2024 YR4, was first reported to the Minor Planet Center on Dec. 27, 2024.
At the time, initial estimate said it had a 1.2% chance of striking Earth. The estimate has been increased to a 2.3% chance.
Here's everything we know about the asteroid:
The asteroid is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide.
Data suggests that the asteroid has an elongated shape, while measurements at visible wavelengths suggest it may be stony in composition, according to the Planetary Society.
Asteroids orbit around celestial bodies and 2024 YR4 is actually slated to make a pass near earth in 2028 at about 20 times the Earth-Moon distance, according to NASA, so there's no chance of it impacting Earth.
NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) estimates that Dec. 22, 2032, is the date that 2024 YR4 will pass closest to Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4's current orbit is taking it away from Earth; it's currently about 30 million miles away.
Asteroid Hunter David Rankin, who Space.com says 'precovered' the asteroid,' found it in data from Catalina Sky Survey.
Rankin wasn't surprised about the odds tipping against us, but predicts the chances will fall again.
"We still expect that to start falling at some point. People should absolutely not worry about this yet," Rankin told Space.com.
Predicting exactly where an asteroid is likely to end up is pretty difficult. In his interview with Space.com, Rankin explained that some characteristics of an asteroid's orbit are more confidently confirmed than others.
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When an asteroid like 2024 YR4 is discovered, it is constantly monitored, and predictions are updated as new data becomes available.
While scientists may have a pretty good idea of an asteroid's orbit relative to the exact time the data was captured, the slightest deviation could have a profound impact on where exactly the asteroid will be when it eventually passes Earth.
Rankin explained that it's 'not possible' to have a perfect idea of the asteroid's position. Instead, scientists 'plot all the possible orbits that fit the given observational arc at any given time.'
In other words, Asteroid 2024 YR4's chances of striking Earth will change as more observations are made.
2024 YR4 currently has a 1-in-43 chance of striking Earth in 2032, but astronomers have rushed to put some context around those numbers in hopes to quell any fears.
As Space.com points out, while the chances of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 have nearly doubled, the chances that it won't haven't halved.
This is one of those times when numbers can, in fact, be misleading when presented without context.
In statistics, it's more accurate to use numbers to describe small sample sizes because using percentages can create misleading perceptions.
For context, 2024 YR4 rates at a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The scale, which ranges from 0 (no chance of impact) to 10 (a collision is certain and would cause worldwide devastation,) is a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects, USA Today reported.
Ratings of 1 on the Torino scale are fairly common among newly discovered asteroids, but follow-up observations have always reduced that rating to 0, according to the Planetary Society.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Asteroid has a chance of hitting Earth. Why scientists say don't worry
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