Latest news with #2024YR4
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Science
- Yahoo
'City killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with 'bullet-like' meteors if it hits the moon in 2032
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. New simulations reveal that the infamous "city killer" asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with "bullet-like" debris if it hits the moon in seven years' time, potentially triggering an eye-catching meteor shower — and endangering the satellites that orbit our planet. 2024 YR4 is a potentially hazardous asteroid measuring roughly 200 feet (60 meters) across, making it large enough to wipe out a large urban area if it were to hit Earth head-on. It was first discovered in December 2024 but made headlines earlier this year when scientists first predicted that there was a chance it could smash into Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. The odds of a collision peaked at 3.1% in February, which was enough to prompt NASA to study it extensively. However, subsequent analysis revealed there is zero chance of it impacting our planet. But in April, researchers realized that, while Earth is no longer in the firing line, the space rock could still hit the moon. The odds of such a collision have grown slowly but steadily, and most recently jumped to 4.3% earlier this month. Experts will likely know the final likelihood by 2028, when the asteroid will make its next close approach to our planet. In a new study, uploaded June 12 to the preprint server arXiv, researchers ran computer simulations to model what a lunar impact might look like. The team estimated that up to 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) of material could be ejected from the lunar surface. If 2024 YR4 hits the Earth-facing side of the moon — which is roughly a 50/50 chance — up to 10% of this debris could be pulled in by Earth's gravity over the following days, the scientists wrote. 2024 YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the moon in "at least 5,000 years," study lead author Paul Wiegert, an expert in solar system dynamics at Western University in Ontario, Canada, who has also extensively studied the "God of Chaos" asteroid Apophis that will zip past Earth in 2029, told French news site AFP. The impact would be "comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released," he added. Related: 'Just the tip of the iceberg': Why risky asteroids like 2024 YR4 will pester Earth for decades to come It is important to note that the new simulations (visible below) were created before the odds of a lunar impact rose from 3.8% to 4.3% on June 16, which slightly raises the chances of this scenario playing out. But it is still far from a certainty. The findings from the new study have also not yet been peer-reviewed. It is unlikely that any of the potential debris fragments will pose a risk to people on the planet's surface. Instead, we may be treated to a "spectacular" meteor shower as wayward fragments of rock burn up in Earth's atmosphere, which could last for several days and be seen by people across the globe, Weigert said. But while we will almost certainly be safe on the ground from any potential lunar meteor shower, our space-based infrastructure could be under threat. The amount of debris that could potentially be pulled close to Earth makes it around 1,000 times more likely that our satellites could be struck by a meteor. And by 2032, the number of spacecraft orbiting our planet is expected to rise significantly. "A centimeter-sized rock traveling at tens of thousands of meters per second is a lot like a bullet," Weigert said. Such an object could easily take out a satellite or cause critical damage to human-inhabited space stations, such as China's Tiangong station. (The International Space Station is scheduled to be decommissioned by 2030.) If the odds of a lunar impact increase further in the coming years, government agencies may make the decision to try and divert the asteroid's course to protect Earth's space assets. The asteroid would be a "good target" for testing our planetary defence capabilities, Weigert said. "I'm sure it will be considered." RELATED STORIES —An 'invisible threat': Swarm of hidden 'city killer' asteroids around Venus could one day collide with Earth, simulations show —No, NASA hasn't warned of an impending asteroid strike in 2038. Here's what really happened. —'Planet killer' asteroids are hiding in the sun's glare. Can we stop them in time? NASA already demonstrated its ability to redirect dangerous asteroids back in 2022, when it diverted the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos by slamming the DART probe into it. 2024 YR4 is only around half the size of that particular space rock. However, if we wait too long, it may become "dangerous" to try and alter the space rock's trajectory because a wrong move could put it onto a potentially catastrophic collision course with Earth, Weigert said. Some experts are also worried that the proposed cuts to NASA's budget by the Trump administration could make it harder to track dangerous asteroids, such as 2024 YR4, in the future.
Scottish Sun
4 days ago
- Science
- Scottish Sun
Colossal asteroid could damage thousands of Earth's satellites with ‘bullet speed' rocks if it hits Moon, experts warn
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) A COLOSSAL asteroid on a collision course with the Moon could damage thousands of satellites and send shrapnel blasting towards Earth, experts have warned. Asteroid 2024 YR4 sparked concern earlier this year with fears of a "city killer" incident if it hit Earth directly in 2032. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 3 The asteroid currently has a 4.3 per cent chance of hitting the Moon Credit: Getty 3 Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently hiding and won't be seen clearly again until 2028 Credit: Getty Fortunately, newer estimates put Earth in the clear - instead the Moon is at risk. Nasa predictions suggest there's a 4.3 per cent chance of the massive asteroid hitting the Moon. Now scientists say there could still consequences that affect us all the same if it does indeed strike the Moon. A direct hit would leave a huge 1km-diameter crater on the lunar surface and send millions of kilograms of debris pelting towards Earth. Dr Paul Wiegert from University of Western Ontario, told AFP that the impact on the Moon's surface would be "comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released". "A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet," he said. Most of the lunar rock would burn up in Earth's atmosphere posing no threat to life on the ground. But some of that material could blast around Earth's orbit, striking satellites and spacecraft. Given the increasing number of satellites in lower Earth orbit, this risks damaging satellites used for communications or navigation. However, there would be some positives too, in the form of a stunning meteor shower. Why Earth's now SAVED from 'city-killer' asteroid YR4- Expert reveals how odds FLIPPED from 1-32 to 'Threat 0' in days The research was conducted by Canadian researchers and presented in a paper that's not currently peer reviewed. "If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years," the paper warns. "The resulting meteor shower at Earth could be eye-catching." Asteroid 2024 YR4 orbits the sun and is currently too far away to be seen properly by scientists. It's not expected to be visible again until 2028 when experts can reassess the possible impact. 3
The Irish Sun
4 days ago
- Science
- The Irish Sun
Colossal asteroid could damage thousands of Earth's satellites with ‘bullet speed' rocks if it hits Moon, experts warn
A COLOSSAL asteroid on a collision course with the Moon could damage thousands of satellites and send shrapnel blasting towards Earth, experts have warned. Asteroid 2024 YR4 sparked concern earlier this year with fears of a "city killer" incident if it 3 The asteroid currently has a 4.3 per cent chance of hitting the Moon Credit: Getty 3 Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently hiding and won't be seen clearly again until 2028 Credit: Getty Fortunately, newer estimates put Earth in the clear - instead the Moon is at risk. Nasa predictions suggest there's a 4.3 per cent Now scientists say there could still consequences that affect us all the same if it does indeed strike the Moon. A direct hit would leave a huge 1km-diameter crater on the lunar surface and send millions of kilograms of debris pelting towards Earth. Read more about asteroids Dr Paul Wiegert from University of Western Ontario, told AFP that the impact on the Moon's surface would be "comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released". "A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet," he said. Most of the lunar rock would burn up in Earth's atmosphere posing no threat to life on the ground. But some of that material could blast around Earth's orbit, striking satellites and spacecraft. Most read in Science Given the increasing number of satellites in lower Earth orbit, this risks damaging satellites used for communications or navigation. However, there would be some positives too, in the form of a stunning meteor shower. Why Earth's now SAVED from 'city-killer' asteroid YR4- Expert reveals how odds FLIPPED from 1-32 to 'Threat 0' in days The research was conducted by Canadian researchers and presented in a paper that's not currently peer reviewed. "If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years," the paper warns. "The resulting meteor shower at Earth could be eye-catching." Asteroid 2024 YR4 orbits the sun and is currently too far away to be seen properly by scientists. It's not expected to be visible again until 2028 when experts can reassess the possible impact. 3 HOW NASA ASSESSES ASTEROID DANGERS Explained by Jamie Harris, Assistant Technology and Science Editor at The Sun Nasa uses something called the Torino Impact Hazard Scale to rate asteroids and other objects. The scale goes from zero to 10. Zero - also known as white zone - is defined as: "The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage." At the top end of the scale is 10, which states: "A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often."
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Science
- Yahoo
Giant asteroid could crash into moon in 2032, firing debris towards Earth
If a giant asteroid smashes into the moon in 2032 it could send lunar debris hurtling towards Earth, researchers have said, posing a risk to satellites but also creating a rare and spectacularly vivid meteor shower visible in the skies. Asteroid 2024 YR4 triggered a planetary defence response earlier this year after telescope observations revealed the 'city killer' had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. Later observations found the likelihood of the asteroid, estimated at about 53-67 metres (174-220ft) wide, hitting the Earth was negligibly low at 0.0017% – although the moon would still be under threat. The odds of the space rock hitting Earth's nearest neighbour have since risen to 4.3%, according to data from the James Webb space telescope. A study released this month by researchers from Canadian universities, which has not been peer reviewed, has mapped out how the asteroid's impact on the moon may shear off rocks that could head for Earth. Researchers simulated how the impact could create a roughly 1km-diameter crater in the moon's surface and launch millions of kilograms of debris out of the moon's orbit and towards Earth, where it would arrive days later. 'If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years,' the report said. 'The resulting meteor shower at Earth could be eye-catching.' While many of the millimetre- to centimetre-sized lunar rocks would burn up in Earth's atmosphere and present no threat to humans, some material could be captured in Earth's orbit, presenting a hazard to satellites, spacecraft and astronauts. The study's lead author, Dr Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario, told Agence France-Presse that the impact on the moon's surface would be 'comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released'. 'A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet,' he added. The findings showed that 'planetary defence considerations' should be extended to cover threats to areas far away from near-Earth space, the study said. Nasa and other national space agencies have long tracked asteroids and comets that could threaten the planet – and are working on ways to deal with a possible collision – but the moon is of secondary concern. In 2022, Nasa conducted a test to divert an asteroid when it smashed its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart) spacecraft into one named Dimorphos, successfully altering its orbit trajectory. The mission was seen as a test run for future celestial bodies that may be on a course for Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4, which orbits the sun, is now too far away to be properly observed and is not expected to be visible again until 2028, when researchers can reassess its size and trajectory. Despite earlier concerns that an impact with the moon might alter its orbit around Earth, Nasa ruled out that scenario in April when it reassessed its size. Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
The Guardian
5 days ago
- Science
- The Guardian
Giant asteroid could crash into moon in 2032, firing debris towards Earth
If a giant asteroid smashes into the moon in 2032 it could send lunar debris hurtling towards Earth, researchers have said, posing a risk to satellites but also creating a rare and spectacularly vivid meteor shower visible in the skies. Asteroid 2024 YR4 triggered a planetary defence response earlier this year after telescope observations revealed the 'city killer' had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. Later observations found the likelihood of the asteroid, estimated at about 53-67 metres (174-220ft) wide, hitting the Earth was negligibly low at 0.0017% – although the moon would still be under threat. The odds of the space rock hitting Earth's nearest neighbour have since risen to 4.3%, according to data from the James Webb space telescope. A study released this month by researchers from Canadian universities, which has not been peer reviewed, has mapped out how the asteroid's impact on the moon may shear off rocks that could head for Earth. Researchers simulated how the impact could create a roughly 1km-diameter crater in the moon's surface and launch millions of kilograms of debris out of the moon's orbit and towards Earth, where it would arrive days later. 'If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years,' the report said. 'The resulting meteor shower at Earth could be eye-catching.' While many of the millimetre- to centimetre-sized lunar rocks would burn up in Earth's atmosphere and present no threat to humans, some material could be captured in Earth's orbit, presenting a hazard to satellites, spacecraft and astronauts. The study's lead author, Dr Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario, told Agence France-Presse that the impact on the moon's surface would be 'comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released'. 'A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet,' he added. The findings showed that 'planetary defence considerations' should be extended to cover threats to areas far away from near-Earth space, the study said. Nasa and other national space agencies have long tracked asteroids and comets that could threaten the planet – and are working on ways to deal with a possible collision – but the moon is of secondary concern. In 2022, Nasa conducted a test to divert an asteroid when it smashed its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart) spacecraft into one named Dimorphos, successfully altering its orbit trajectory. The mission was seen as a test run for future celestial bodies that may be on a course for Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4, which orbits the sun, is now too far away to be properly observed and is not expected to be visible again until 2028, when researchers can reassess its size and trajectory. Despite earlier concerns that an impact with the moon might alter its orbit around Earth, Nasa ruled out that scenario in April when it reassessed its size. Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
