Five Risks for Stocks That Cloud the Outlook for the Second Half
Some of the world's biggest money managers are wary of chasing the stock rally further in the second half of 2025, bracing for more volatility.
Markets are wrapping up a wild six months that saw the S&P 500 plunge 19% from peak to trough, before it recouped those losses. The index closed at a record high on Friday after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran revived the risk-on rally.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Harvard, University of Toronto make contingency plan to allow foreign students to study if barred from US
Harvard University and the University of Toronto have revealed a contingency plan that would allow select international Harvard graduate students to continue their education in Canada if the Trump administration's plan to impose U.S. visa restrictions and prevent them from re-entering the U.S. is upheld by the courts. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security moved last month to terminate Harvard's ability to enroll international students after the university allegedly failed to provide extensive behavioral records of student visa holders the agency had requested, including footage of protest activity involving student visa holders, even if it's not criminal, and the disciplinary records of all student visa holders in the past five years. A federal judge has since blocked the government's effort to end the university's visa program. Harvard Kennedy School Announces Layoffs After Trump Cut Billions In Funding Because of potential U.S. visa challenges, students at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government who may be unable to return to the U.S. will be given the option to continue their studies through a visiting student program at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. The program would combine courses taught by Kennedy and Munk faculty members, according to the deans of both institutions. Read On The Fox News App The contingency plans were released to ease student uncertainty, but will only be used if there is enough demand from students unable to enter the U.S. over potential visa or entry restrictions, the deans said in a statement. "With these contingency plans in place, HKS will be able to continue to provide a world-class public policy education to all of our students, even if they cannot make it to our campus this year," Harvard Kennedy School Dean Jeremy Weinstein said. The program will be available to international students who have already completed one year at the U.S. campus. The Trump administration has moved to cut billions of dollars in federal research funding for Harvard, in part, over its handling of alleged antisemitism and violence on campus amid anti-Israel protests sparked by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Weinstein announced staff layoffs at Kennedy in a recent email to faculty and staff, citing "unprecedented new headwinds" creating "significant financial challenges," including a "substantial proposed increase in the endowment tax" and "massive cuts to federal funding of research." Harvard Weighs How To Strike Deal With Trump Admin Without Looking Like It Caved: Report Over the past five years, more than 50% of Kennedy students have come from outside the U.S., the school's media office said. A total of 739 students from 92 countries in programs aimed at developing leadership in public policy and government are enrolled at the school, according to the Harvard International Office website. Reuters contributed to this article source: Harvard, University of Toronto make contingency plan to allow foreign students to study if barred from US
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
S&P 500 at new highs: Strategist says it's time to take profits
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is trading at a new record high, but Girard chief investment officer Timothy Chubb thinks it may be time for investors to take some money off the table. Find out why in the video above. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. At the end of the day, I think this is a good time to take some profits. I mean, we have digested so much really since April 2nd, um from, you know, data to tariffs, you know, ultimately a strong earnings season, everything that you, you know, just been going through. But um, the market is starting to lose some steam. It's kind of been this melt up over the last several weeks. Uh we've seen breadth within the market really start to narrow quite a bit, as you're just discussing with the magnificent 7. Uh, really the AI trade has been, you know, keeping this uh, you know, rally going. And I wouldn't be surprised as we kind of turn the page into the second half of this year, uh investors kind of take a step back and, and, you know, again, take some of those profits and and look to um, ultimately the, you know, potentially diversify a little bit with fixed income, especially where, you know, rates are at currently. Hey, Q2 earnings season, those on deck, Tim, do you think that could, could that prove to actually be another positive catalyst for the market? It could be. I mean, earnings revisions were, were, you know, uh revised down quite a bit. Um we've started to see that, you know, moving the other direction more recently, but um, there's still so many cross currents that, you know, may ultimately be impacting some of these companies that removed guidance. I think about 20% of the S&P 500 uh removed guidance for the year. So uh, the bar might be a little lower than uh ultimately, you know, needs to be and and perhaps we, you know, jump over it. Um, as Julie mentioned, you know, it's going to be the uh lowest from a growth rate standpoint in quite some time, but um, still positive momentum. I think the AI capex story and and uh, you know, is really a durable uh investment uh opportunity for uh, you know, us as as well as, you know, these, these companies, you know, trying to raise and make sure that the rails of the AI railroad are are built as quickly as possible. What did you make, Tim? I'm just curious, you know, we talk about trade and tariffs a lot of course, as we should. So President Trump comes out today, uh throwing haymakers at Canada, clearly not happy, right? Making, making some, some threats there, saying, listen, new tariffs are on the way. What's interesting, Tim, about that is caught people off guard. The market did react a bit initially, but then you end the day up all, all green here, right? I mean every popular average in the green. What does that tell us, Tim, as investors? I, I think there's some complacency. I mean, this, this V-shaped recovery has been so hated, right? Um, you know, positioning was offside by a lot of the hedge funds, you know, we've seen that adjust a little bit, but, you know, ultimately it's been, you know, sort of this classic dual, you know, pain trade where we've had a short squeeze higher and then we've had the narrowing leadership more recently. Um, and ultimately, I, you know, I think, you know, retail certainly charging this uh, you know, rally quite a bit. Uh, but people are just, you know, fear missing out. And if we do get a pretty solid earning season here in Q2, maybe some of the tariff impact is not quite uh, you know, baked in the cake uh, just yet for, for some of these companies and and a relatively, uh, I'd say sanguin, you know, outlook for the back half of this year, uh markets continued, you know, could continue to grind higher from here. But, you know, I think the, the key point is why we're back at all-time highs is that we haven't had traded headlines. And so, uh if we start to see this, you know, as we get closer to, you know, July 9th, uh ultimately creep back into, you know, the, the um headlines quite a bit more, um I think the equity markets are vulnerable sort of priced for perfection and in a lot of ways and uh again, it's just been, you know, somewhat fragile, you know, just given the narrowing breath that we've seen recently.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Returns On Capital At CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) Have Stalled
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key financial metrics. One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. Although, when we looked at CSX (NASDAQ:CSX), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for CSX, this is the formula: Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities) 0.13 = US$5.1b ÷ (US$43b - US$3.4b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025). Therefore, CSX has an ROCE of 13%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Transportation industry average of 9.1% it's much better. Check out our latest analysis for CSX Above you can see how the current ROCE for CSX compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for CSX . Things have been pretty stable at CSX, with its capital employed and returns on that capital staying somewhat the same for the last five years. Businesses with these traits tend to be mature and steady operations because they're past the growth phase. So unless we see a substantial change at CSX in terms of ROCE and additional investments being made, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger. In a nutshell, CSX has been trudging along with the same returns from the same amount of capital over the last five years. Since the stock has gained an impressive 53% over the last five years, investors must think there's better things to come. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward. One more thing, we've spotted 1 warning sign facing CSX that you might find interesting. While CSX may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
