
So, Daniel Hannan… have any of your post-Brexit Britain predictions come true?
The fireworks were advertised by Daniel Hannan, then a Conservative member of the European parliament, now a Tory peer, in an article he wrote two days before the EU referendum. It began: 'It's 24 June 2025, and Britain is marking its annual Independence Day celebration. As the fireworks stream through the summer sky, still not quite dark, we wonder why it took us so long to leave.'
I don't know why he chose a date nine years into the future. Perhaps the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote would have been too decimal and therefore too continental. But the article was an almost religious vision of the utopia that would greet us by… yesterday.
'The United Kingdom is now the region's foremost knowledge-based economy,' Hannan wrote. 'New industries, from 3D printing to driverless cars, have sprung up around the country.'
Leaving the EU had been straightforward. 'The last thing most EU leaders wanted, once the shock had worn off, was a protracted argument with the United Kingdom which, on the day it left, became their single biggest market. Terms were agreed easily enough,' he wrote.
Three years of parliamentary deadlock, meaningful votes, Supreme Court rulings, a Tory leadership crisis and two general elections – but perhaps he meant it would be undemanding to be on the EU side of the negotiations.
'In many areas, whether because of economies of scale or because rules were largely set at global level, the UK and the EU continued to adopt the same technical standards,' Hannan said, in a prediction echoing his much-mocked comment during the referendum campaign: 'Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market… '
His vision of a post-Brexit land of milk, honey and booming financial services was one in which the legal reality of the single market was irrelevant. No wonder he admitted in 2022: 'Staying in the single market, or large parts of it, would have saved us a lot of trouble.'
However, he foresaw no trouble on the eve of the Brexit vote, as he became carried away with his dream of a better future: ' Shale oil and gas came on tap, almost providentially, just as the North Sea reserves were depleting… In consequence, our fuel bills have tumbled, boosting productivity, increasing household incomes and stimulating the entire economy.'
On and on it went: 'Opting out of the EU's data protection rules has turned Hoxton into the software capital of the world … The UK has again become a centre for world shipping … Fishing ports such as Hull and Grimsby – which both backed an exit from the union – become pharma hubs… Our universities are flourishing … The number of student visas granted each year is decided by MPs who, now that they no longer need to worry about unlimited EU migration, can afford to take a long-term view. Parliament sets the number of work permits, the number of refugee places and the terms of family reunification.'
To be fair to Lord Hannan, no one could have predicted what a mess Boris Johnson would make of the 'points-based immigration system'.
So attractive is the Shangri-La of life outside the EU that three other countries have followed us to freedom, Hannan wrote: Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands.
The final paragraph is the sort of thing a skilled satirist would write today about the innocent hopes of the most naive kind of Brexiteer, knowing everything that had happened since: 'Perhaps the greatest benefit, though, is not easy to quantify. Britain has recovered its self-belief. As we left the EU, we straightened our backs, looked about us, and realised that we were still a nation to be reckoned with … We saw that there were great opportunities across the oceans, beyond the enervated eurozone. We knew that our song had not yet been sung.'
Well, it has been sung now, and it turned out to be the discordant thrash metal of failure.
As someone whose job it is to make predictions about the future, I almost feel sorry for Baron Hannan of Kingsclere, who, apart from his attempt to justify his comment about the single market, has kept fairly quiet about his rosy vision of post-Brexit Britain.
He is like a preacher who promised the Rapture on a certain date and then has to explain to his disbelieving followers why it hasn't happened. As sometimes happens with end-of-the-world cults, the followers refuse to adjust their beliefs to the failure of the prediction.
Sometimes they turn to rival preachers, who explain that the promise of deliverance was executed in the wrong way. Hence Nigel Farage and his claim that real Brexit has never been tried. Still, they will always have Hannan's words to remind us of what could have been.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


South Wales Guardian
16 minutes ago
- South Wales Guardian
Suella Braverman criticises plans to house asylum seekers in former shop
In a letter to Yvette Cooper, the Labour secretary of state, the Conservative MP for Fareham and Waterlooville described the proposal for the site in London Road, Waterlooville, as 'insulting to local people'. She wrote: 'This plan will dump further pressure on policing, healthcare and public infrastructure, all while ignoring the legitimate concerns of residents who have been left voiceless. 'Our town has undergone a transformation and become a welcoming place to work, invest, shop, dine and play. Decisions such as yours will once again make our town centres no-go zones for the patriotic, common-sense majority.' The MP, who has started a petition against the proposal, also stated on her website: 'This site, in the centre of our town, is utterly inappropriate for migrant accommodation. It must be stopped.' A spokesman for Havant Borough Council said the local authority had not initially been consulted on the plans after Clearsprings, a procurement company employed by the Home Office for the project, had used an 'incorrect email address' in a bid to contact the council and had not followed up when it had not received a response. The council has now been granted a 10-day consultation period on the proposals and the Labour leader Phil Munday is to meet with the Home Office. He said: 'Combined with my imminent Home Office meeting, everything is being done to ensure our voice is heard whilst dealing with a challenge being felt nationally. I look forward to the council providing a response that reflects the concerns of the borough.' Mr Munday also criticised Ms Braverman for referring to asylum seekers as 'illegal migrants' on her website. He said: 'They are categorically not recognised by the state as illegal immigrants – regardless of the headline-grabbing title of Suella Braverman's petition – and I urge people to consider this in their views and actions.' A Home Office spokeswoman said it was in 'active dialogue' with the local authority and added: 'We are working to fairly disperse asylum seekers across the country, consulting closely with local authorities and listening to local concerns.'


Reuters
17 minutes ago
- Reuters
Wall St extends gains after report of US-EU nearing trade deal
July 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes moved higher on Wednesday after a Financial Times reported that the EU and the United States were closing in on a trade deal, similar to the agreement U.S. President Donald Trump struck with Japan. Wall Street, already on an upward trajectory, spiked after the report said that the U.S. and the EU are nearing a deal to set 15% tariffs on all European imports. Both sides would waive tariffs on some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical devices, the report said. The bullish momentum followed closely on the heels of Trump's trade deal with Japan, which will slash tariffs on Japanese autos to 15% from 27.5%, with duties on other goods also dropping to 15% from 25%. An agreement with the Philippines also followed, which yielded a modest cut in tariff rate. At 12:20 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab gained 31.08 points, or 0.49%, to 6,340.70 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab rose 43.28 points, or 0.21%, to 20,935.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab edged higher 417.80 points, or 0.93%, to 44,917.71, within striking distance of its record peak. Wall Street's "fear gauge", the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), opens new tab, dipped to its lowest level in over five months. Earlier in the day, the European Commission was preparing to seek approval for 93 billion euros ($109 billion) in counter-tariffs on American goods just in case the talks fell through. "The key thing is the markets have confidence that the White House is going to continue to work through these trade deals," said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. Investors are now laser-focused on earnings from the "Magnificent Seven" — a group of marquee names that has helped propel U.S. stocks to all-time highs. EV maker Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab and Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab are set to report after the bell on Wednesday. With AI optimism running high and valuations stretched, expectations for these tech giants are sky-high, leaving little margin for disappointment. Shares of Tesla were largely steady, while Alphabet moved 0.9% lower. GE Vernova's (GEV.N), opens new tab shares climbed 14.1% to an all-time high, as the power equipment maker raised its current-year revenue and free cash flow forecasts after beating Wall Street estimates for second-quarter profit. The stock, which has gained about 91% so far this year, boosted the S&P's industrials index (.SPLRCI), opens new tab for the day, up 1.6%. Medical equipment maker Thermo Fisher (TMO.N), opens new tab surged 11.8% after beating Wall Street's estimates for second-quarter profit and revenue. Of the 117 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date, 84.6% have reported above analysts' expectations, as per data compiled by LSEG I/B/E/S. On the downside, Texas Instruments (TXN.O), opens new tab tumbled 12.1% after its quarterly profit forecast failed to impress investors, pointing to weaker-than-expected demand for its analog chips from some customers and underscored tariff-related uncertainty. The earnings also weighed on its peer analog chipmakers, with NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.O), opens new tab, Analog Devices (ADI.O), opens new tab and ON Semiconductor (ON.O), opens new tab falling between 2.7% and 6.7%. In economic data, U.S. existing home sales fell more than expected in June. Focus now shifts to Thursday's weekly jobless claims numbers and S&P Global's flash PMI data to gauge economic health in the wake of tariff uncertainties. Following a mixed set of economic data last week, traders have ruled out an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Odds for a September reduction stand at about 58%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.97-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.91-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted 43 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 80 new highs and 16 new lows.

South Wales Argus
20 minutes ago
- South Wales Argus
Former culture secretary Lord Chris Smith elected as Cambridge chancellor
Lord Smith beat nine other candidates, including broadcaster Sandi Toksvig and anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller, in the race for the historic position. It comes after Lord Sainsbury of Turville announced last year that he intended to step down after more than a decade in the role. Lord Smith, the outgoing Master of Pembroke College in Cambridge and former Labour culture secretary under Sir Tony Blair, will hold the office for 10 years, the university announced on Wednesday. The election for the chancellor was opened to online voting for the first time, and more than 23,000 alumni and staff participated. In addition, nearly 2,000 chose to vote in person at the university's Senate House in Cambridge. The chancellor, a position which stretches back more than 800 years, is the university's formal and ceremonial head. They have no executive responsibilities, but they will be a part in advising senior members of the institution, fundraising, and acting as an ambassador for Cambridge. Lord Smith, who will step down as Master of Pembroke College later this month after a decade in the role, said: 'To be elected as chancellor of the university I love is a huge honour. I'm thrilled. 'I look forward to being the best possible ambassador for Cambridge, to being a strong voice for higher education more generally, and to working closely together with the vice-chancellor and her team.' Lord Smith served as secretary of state for culture, media and sport between 1997 and 2001. He stood down as an MP in 2005 and was made a life peer. He was also chairman of the Environment Agency from 2008 to 2014, and chairman of the Advertising Standards Authority between 2007 and 2017. Professor Deborah Prentice, vice-chancellor of the University of Cambridge, said: 'On behalf of everyone at the university, I offer my warm congratulations to Chris on his election. 'I very much look forward to working with him and building on the strong relationship that we have developed since I became vice-chancellor. 'Chris has had a long involvement with the university and brings a wealth of relevant experience to this important role. 'I would like to thank the other nine candidates for standing for the role and their willingness to serve Cambridge.' Candidates standing to be the chancellor had to secure at least 50 nominations from alumni and current staff who are members of the Regent House, the university's governing body. The election was held between July 9-18 and was conducted under the single transferable vote system. In the final round, Lord Smith received 10,569 votes, 2,129 more than second-placed candidate Dr Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens' College, Cambridge, who received 8,440 votes. QI host and former The Great British Bake Off presenter Ms Toksvig, who had hoped to become the first female Cambridge chancellor, came third. Lord Smith also defeated Lord Browne, former BP boss, Cambridge astrophysicist Professor Wyn Evans and businesswoman Mrs Miller. In his candidate statement for chancellor, Lord Smith, who became the UK's first openly gay MP in 1984, highlighted his 'commitment to diversity, openness and ethics' and freedom of speech. He said: 'We live in a dangerous world of misinformation and 'fake news'. 'Universities are the places where facts are researched and honoured, where information is discovered and tested and debated. 'It is why a genuine commitment to freedom of speech is so important.' Lord Smith, who studied English at Pembroke College, Cambridge, said: 'It is no accident that the first target of autocrats everywhere is education; tyrants do not want people to have and acquire knowledge. 'The Chancellor has above all to be an advocate for the vital importance of knowledge and expertise.'