The Story So Far: The Boeing (NYSE:BA) Air India Crash

Business Insider

2 days ago

Happy Fourth of July to all of you out there, whether you are joining in the commemoration of the independence of the United States or simply just grateful it is Friday. But today, since there is likely to be no further movement on this front, it seemed like a good day to run down the story so far on one of the biggest stories to hit Boeing (BA) yet: the Air India disaster. And while we only have so much to consider so far, the news that has come out to date is presenting a deep and complex picture.
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A Bit of History
First, we should start with some history. Flight AI-171 departed from Ahmedabad, bound for London, on June 12. The flight was not aloft long; it had not even managed to get more than a thousand feet off the ground when the flight issued a Mayday transmission and subsequently crashed.
Immediately thereafter, questions began to circulate in earnest. What happened? Did Boeing screw something up? Again? Or was it the airline that was to blame here? What little we knew at the time, and know so far, has begun to paint a picture.
The idea that the airline was to blame seems a bit of a long shot. The plane, as it turns out, had been quite well maintained. One of its engines was nearly brand new, back in March 2025. The other engine was somewhat older, but had been part of a regular maintenance plan, which would check it again this December, before the incident.
Thus, many turned on Boeing itself. After all, mechanical failures at Boeing were nothing new. We all remember the Alaska Airlines (ALK) incident that sent Boeing into a tailspin to begin with. It is only just now digging itself out of that one. So the thought that Boeing might have been responsible for this was actually quite rational.
However, flaws in that logic emerged. The planes in question were not the same model; the Alaska Airlines flight was a 737 Max, while the Air India was a 787 Dreamliner. The Dreamliner, which had been in service for 14 years, had yet to record a single fatality in that entire period. It had seen some earlier incidents, yes. But this was the Dreamliner's first fatality in its entire service run.
Potential Explanations
Thus, we get to today. The black boxes have been pulled from the wreckage—both of them; there were two, after all—which includes flight data recorders and cockpit voice recorders. Reports note that it will be 'months' before Indian authorities release their findings, though early determinations have started to slip out.
A New York Times report noted that the flight was perfectly normal, until it was not. Runway distance was adequate. Wing flaps and slats were extended. Takeoff was launched from a point that was, approximately, perfectly normal. So how did it go from 'relatively normal' to 'catastrophe' in the space of seconds?
The Times report noted that the landing gear retraction process had failed, and that in turn suggests a reason why the plane's Ram Air Turbine (RAT) had been activated. This in turn suggests a complete failure of electrical power, hydraulic power, or even full engine power. We know that a dual engine failure is remarkably rare on a 787 Dreamliner. These things simply do not happen. But, on the Air India flight, it may well have done just that.
One word that emerged like the specter of death from the Indian government, however, was 'sabotage.' The possibility of such a move was not ruled out as of Monday, and investigators are still looking into the notion that a vanishingly-rare-in-the-wild dual engine failure might indeed have been deliberate.
Another unexpected wrinkle landed when what turned out to be a social media hoax began making the rounds. The hoax revealed a cause of the crash—a malfunctioning captain's chair—that caused the pilot to pull several controls accidentally. The co-pilot, the report noted, was unable to intervene, as the malfunctioning seat left the co-pilot unable to access any of the controls. This was later found to be false, though given the nature of the report and the information available at the time, this also proved to be a surprisingly plausible explanation.
Still, in the end, it will take several months before this entire situation is ironed out, all the data analyzed, and an actionable conclusion reached. And it is a situation that most every Boeing investor will be following with great interest.
Is Boeing a Good Stock to Buy Right Now?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on BA stock based on 17 Buys, two Holds and one Sell assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 16.82% rally in its share price over the past year, the average BA price target of $226.42 per share implies 4.86% upside potential.