Putin Loses Influence in Backyard

Newsweek

4 days ago

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
His absence from World War II commemorations in Moscow was enough of a snub to Vladimir Putin, but Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev deepened his rift with the Russian leader by demanding Russia take responsibility for an air tragedy.
Baku blames the Christmas Day crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 that came under fire over Grozny, Chechnya—killing 38 of the 67 on board—on a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system mistakenly targeting the plane amid a reported Ukrainian drone attack.
Unhappy with Putin's lack of apology, Aliyev reiterated on Monday his demand for Russia to publicly acknowledge responsibility, punish those responsible, and compensate victims' families and the airline.
But it is not just the plane crash that has frayed ties—tit-for-tat arrests and discontent from Baku toward Moscow's regional role as Putin remains preoccupied in Ukraine have also played their part.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, left, is seen with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, left, is seen with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.One regional expert told Newsweek that ties between Azerbaijan and Russia are at their lowest point since the end of the Soviet Union. Another said Aliyev sees his country as the key shaper of the region now rather than Moscow.
Ali Karimli, leader of Azerbaijan's democratic opposition, told Newsweek Aliyev had distanced himself from Moscow following the fall of Putin's ally, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which signaled a weakening of Russian strength in the wider region. Aliyev "began to realize that Russia was not as powerful as once assumed," he said.
Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries in Russia and Azerbaijan for comment.
Baku's Harsh Reaction
With a shared Soviet past, fossil-fuel dominated economies and authoritarian leaders, Russia and Azerbaijan have much in common.
But Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has upended Russia's regional role and Aliyev has spotted an opportunity to capitalize on Putin's tepid response to a tragic plane crash.
Half a year later, tensions between the countries spilled over again following the arrests in June of dozens of Azerbaijanis in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. The Azerbaijanis, all Russian citizens, were taken into custody in a raid as part of an inquiry into cold case murders over the previous two decades.
Those detained were beaten, and two brothers—the main suspects died. Azerbaijani authorities accused Russian security forces of deliberately killing their nationals.
Russian cultural events in Azerbaijan were canceled, and the Baku office of the Kremlin's Sputnik news agency was raided and its employees detained.
"Russia didn't expect such a harsh reaction from Baku," Konul de Moor, International Crisis Group's consulting South Caucasus analyst, told Newsweek. "Their relationship is the lowest it has ever been since Azerbaijan gained its independence."
Karimli, leader of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party and a former secretary of state whose opposition to Aliyev's rule has seen him face a travel ban and refused a passport by his country's authorities, told Newsweek the crash of Flight 8243 occurred when Aliyev was already pulling away from Moscow.
At the onset of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, Aliyev believed Moscow would win quickly and reestablish its dominance across the post-Soviet space. On February 22, 2022— two days before the invasion—Aliyev signed a declaration in Moscow with Putin affirming a bilateral alliance between Azerbaijan and Russia.
But as the war dragged on and Russia suffered repeated strategic losses, Aliyev, like many others, began to realize that Russia was not as powerful as once assumed, and was in fact becoming weaker, Karimli said.
The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria further convinced Aliyev of this decline—Russia had failed to protect one of its most valued allies, he said.
Aliyev also observed how Turkey and the West were rapidly filling the vacuum left by Russia's retreat, not only in Syria but across the wider region.
"While Putin saw Assad's fall as a major loss, Aliyev appeared to welcome the outcome and publicly described Assad's removal as a positive development—deliberately signaling political distance from Moscow," said Karimli.
"He seemed to conclude that close association with Russia might actually be more dangerous than opposing it."
Ali Karimli, Azerbaijan's former secretary of state and chairman of the democratic opposition Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, is seen in this undated image.
Ali Karimli, Azerbaijan's former secretary of state and chairman of the democratic opposition Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, is seen in this undated image.
Supplied
Nagorno-Karabakh Withdrawal
Before Assad's downfall, there had already been a shift in Russia's authority in the South Caucasus, an area Moscow considers its backyard.
Russian peacekeepers deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after the 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani war put up no resistance to Baku's blockade of the region.
A Russian peacekeeping contingent left the region in 2024 ahead of schedule after not intervening in Baku's successful military operation to take full control of Nagorno-Karabakh from its separatist Armenian authorities in September 2023.
Stefan Meister, head of the center for order and governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Newsweek that Azerbaijan winning the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and taking over the region prompted Aliyev to see Baku as a regional player Moscow can no longer dictate to.
"Aliyev considers himself as the key shaper of the new regional security order, where Russia will not play the role it played in the past," he said. "Azerbaijan is not willing to accept compromises with Russia."
This comes as Moscow faces a souring of ties with another regional neighbor. Armenia did not attend the latest summit of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, angered by the lack of solidarity from Russia when Baku captured Nagorno-Karabakh, an operation which Meister said emboldened Aliyev's attitude to Moscow.
"Aliyev did what he did without getting punished by Russia," said Meister. "He saw the relative weakness of Moscow and the unwillingness also to go into conflict with Azerbaijan because Moscow needs them."
Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi on July 10 for the first unmediated bilateral contact between the two leaders.
It comes after Armenian prosecutors accused Moscow of trying to overthrow Yerevan's pro-Western government in 2024 in an alleged plot disrupted by local security forces. Armenia has since accelerated its policy of EU integration and distanced itself from the Moscow-led CSTO military alliance.
Emergency specialists work at the site where Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed, near the western Kazakh city of Aktau, on December 25, 2024.
Emergency specialists work at the site where Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed, near the western Kazakh city of Aktau, on December 25, 2024.But with no free press, no functioning civil society, and the political opposition repressed, Azerbaijan is unlike Armenia, said Karimli adding that Aliyev may resist being in hock to Russia but he is equally unwilling to open up to the West.
Azerbaijan may be strategically important to Russia but the reverse is also true with Russia a key partner for Aliyev, who understands that breaking with Putin would force him to deepen ties with Europe and the United States—something he is reluctant to do, given his wish to resist democratic reforms and preserve his authoritarian grip, Karimli added.
"If Putin were to break with Aliyev, he would effectively lose his last remaining ally in the South Caucasus," he said.
Putin also cannot overlook Baku's strategic alliance with Turkey and pushing Russia's relationship with Azerbaijan to breaking point could strain Moscow's ties with Ankara—something the Kremlin can ill afford under current geopolitical conditions, he added.
Trade relations between Moscow and Baku are still strong, as is a mutual dependency on energy exports. Linguistic ties are also tight with Russian still widely spoken in Azerbaijan and nearly half (46 percent) of the total volume of remittances paid to Azerbaijan come from Russia, where, according to official data, more than 300,000 Azerbaijanis live.
But Aliyev can also benefit from portraying Azerbaijan as a strategic partner of the West in the global confrontation with Russia, especially in the energy sector.
"He has a better partnering position and it's more difficult for Russia to punish Aliyev or to escalate their relations too far," said Meister.
Pushing back against Russia is a good card for Azerbaijan to play with the West, de Moor said, with the prospect of investment as Baku eyes energy-related projects bypassing Russia .
All this marks a shift in the position of Russia in the South Caucasus.
"Russia can't treat it as its near abroad any more," added de Moor.