P27, W0, D1, L26: Why England v Italy offers that rarest of prospects – a ‘big six' Euros upset

New York Times

16 hours ago

There are a couple of paradoxes in international women's football in Europe at the moment.
The first is that, while the overall quality of the game is steadily improving year on year, it is difficult to make a case that any individual side has dramatically improved in relation to the others. The accepted hierarchy is still in place.
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In other words, the six favourites going into Euro 2022 were the same six favourites going into Euro 2025: England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden. No one has yet evolved from being one of the 'other' nations to being one of the favourites.
The second is related. While the outsiders have become better at competing with the favourites — there are no longer any huge thrashings at the European Championship, and the biggest margin of victory at this tournament has been by a fairly respectable five goals — they are not actually managing to defeat them. Or, in actual fact, even get a draw against them.
The statistics demonstrate this nicely. At Euro 2022, there were 16 matches between one of the 'big six' and the 'other 10'. Those matches produced 15 victories for the favourites, and a single draw.
That draw was recorded with the final kick of the group stage, when Iceland scored a 112th-minute penalty against a France side who were already assured of top spot in Group D, and therefore had made six changes for a game played in 36-degree heat. The equaliser, admitted France manager Corinne Diacre after the game, 'wasn't that important given the situation'. It's fair to suspect that, had France needed to beat Iceland, they would have.
It's been a similar story this time around. The 11 matches between one of the favourites and the 'other 11' at Euro 2025 have produced 10 victories for the favourites. And only Denmark have (twice) held the opposition to merely a one-goal victory, losing 1-0 to neighbours Sweden, and 2-1 to Germany, ensuring their elimination after two matches.
Denmark, of course, will not be celebrating this as much of an achievement. Indeed, Denmark are the side who inflicted the last genuine shock at the European Championship, in 2017. Going into the quarter-final, they were given little hope against a Germany side who had won eight of the previous nine European Championships. But after the match was postponed by a day due to torrential rain in Rotterdam, Denmark produced a huge upset by coming back from a goal down to win 2-1. It was only the second time since 1989 that Germany had not won the European Championship.
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The Danes subsequently reached the final in 2017, beating relative minnows Austria on penalties in the semi-final, before losing to hosts the Netherlands 4-2 in the final.
But that seems a long time ago. And now, the underdogs' record against the 'big six' at the past two tournaments is played 27, won none, drawn one, and lost 26. Which does not make for a particularly appealing competition for viewers hoping for the unexpected.
On Tuesday in Geneva, Italy have the final opportunity in this European Championship to provide the Euros' first genuine shock, when they take on holders England. In some ways, it is a shame to be speaking about Italy in such a fashion, considering their period of relative success in the 1990s. As other European nations have put more resources into women's football, Italy stood still and therefore slipped behind.
The Italian game remains something of a mystery to many, with almost all the national team players remaining at home, and relatively little Italian involvement in the final stages of the Champions League. It is clear, from speaking to four-time Serie A-winning manager Rita Guarino before the tournament, that English football and the Women's Super League is considered a template for Italy to follow. That includes bidding to host this tournament in four years' time, having witnessed the success of Euro 2022.
It might seem patronising to consider Italy underdogs, but then the general pattern from this tournament is players and managers declaring the opposition are favourites.
And, after all, Italy are suited to the role. For all the brilliance of playmaker Manuela Giugliano, they probably do not have the guile to dominate the game against England. But they have centre-backs who will relish a physical duel against Alessia Russo (of Italian descent, as it happens), full-backs who have provided a stream of good crosses throughout this tournament, attacking midfielders who make direct runs on the break, and a major penalty-box threat in Cristiana Girelli.
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Andrea Soncin's side showed enough against Spain in their final group game to suggest they will cause England problems, primarily on the counter-attack. An Italian win would be popular across Europe — it would not merely be a victory for themselves, but for everyone outside the established 'big six'.