World Business Report Global supply chain worries hit a record high
Global supply chains are in trouble, driven by crises due to tariffs, geopolitical shocks and Middle East instability, according to the latest survey carried out by CIPS Pulse of the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply. Roger Hearing hears from Ben Farrell, CIPS CEO.
Also, as a key tariff deadline set by US President Donald Trump draws closer, talks between the United States and many other countries, including India, have hit roadblocks over import duties on auto parts, steel, and agricultural goods.
And Italian luxury fashion brand Prada has said it acknowledges the Indian roots of its new footwear line, days after the design sparked a controversy in India.
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The Guardian
31 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Tuesday briefing: How weakened is Iran after Operation Midnight Hammer – and where might it go from here?
Good morning. The term 'cakeism' – the false belief that one can simultaneously enjoy the benefits of two mutually exclusive choices – may forever be associated with the Brexit negotiations, when keeping the advantages of EU membership while also shedding its costs became the UK's official bargaining position. But the appeal of cakeism endures, and over the last week the US president's approach to the conflict with Iran has started to look distinctly gateau-shaped. Donald Trump wants the glory of a decisive victory on the battlefield but is not so keen on the long-term repercussions that come with it: tit-for-tat retaliations, unforeseeable conflict spillage, focused diplomacy, or even regime change – the kind of talk the Maga movement associates with Trump's predecessors. Questions over the efficacy of the US strikes of Iranian nuclear facilities remain unanswered. And as the regime in Tehran defiantly insists on its own 'victory', insists that trust in the UN nuclear inspectorate is 'broken', and cracks down on dissent at home, it is starting to look as if Trump might not be able to have his cake and eat it after all. For today's newsletter, I spoke to diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour about how weakened Iran really is, and what this could mean for the stability of the ceasefire. Here are the headlines. Welfare | Downing Street's plans to see off a major Labour welfare rebellion were in chaos on Monday night, amid continued brinkmanship between MPs and the government over the scale of the concessions. There was significant division between government departments over how to respond to rebels' demands ahead of the knife-edge vote on Tuesday. UK news | Police have formally opened a criminal investigation into comments made by Bob Vylan and Kneecap at Glastonbury after reviewing video and audio footage of the performances. Meanwhile on Monday, the BBC said that it should not have allowed chants of 'Death to the IDF' at Bob Vylan's performance to be broadcast. Crown Estate | King Charles is set to receive official annual income of £132m next year, after his portfolio of land and property made more than £1bn in profits thanks to a boom in the offshore wind sector. Arms trade | Britain's decision to allow the export of F-35 fighter jet components to Israel, despite accepting they could be used in breach of international humanitarian law in Gaza, was lawful, London's high court has ruled. The judges ruled that the 'acutely sensitive and political issue' was 'a matter for the executive … not for the courts'. Crime | A 92-year-old man who evaded justice for almost 60 years has been convicted of raping and murdering a woman in Bristol, after a review by a cold case police team and scientists. Officers believe the 58-year gap between the crime and the conviction may be the biggest in modern English policing history. On 21 June, the US air force and navy bombed three of Iran's nuclear sites, thus becoming directly involved in a military conflict started when Israel struck key military and nuclear facilities in Iran eight days earlier. Since then, president Donald Trump has been ever more adamant that Iran's nuclear facilities have been 'completely and totally obliterated', and that the ceasefire agreed on 24 June would bring 'tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY' to the region in perpetuity. A week on, the ceasefire still holds, but questions over the strikes' long-term consequences are mounting. CNN has reported US intelligence assessments that the bombing did not destroy the core components of the country's nuclear programme. The regime in Tehran, meanwhile, has struck a note of defiance, with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claiming his country had 'dealt a severe slap to the face of America' with a missile attack on a US base in nearby Qatar. Which begs the question: did Operation Midnight Hammer weaken Iran's nuclear ambitions, or will it embolden its leadership to pursue them in the long term? How damaged are Iran's military capabilities? The intense fighting between Israel and Iran – now often referred to as the '12-day war' – exposed the Islamic Republic's air defences, showing it was not able to defend itself as effectively against aerial assaults as it has previously claimed. The American strike on the three nuclear facilities – at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – was undoubtedly effective. 'Most serious analysts think that the damage of the US strikes was very, very serious, and it's hard to imagine that Iran still has a credible nuclear weapons programme in place that has somehow eluded intelligence,' said Patrick Wintour. That is not the same as 'obliteration', however – significantly so. Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that while American bombers had 'severely damaged' Iranian facilities, 'one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing there', and Tehran could begin weaponising uranium again in 'a matter of months'. 'Even if Iran just has a couple of dozen centrifuges out of tens of thousands left, it could purify its uranium stockpiles within about three months,' said Patrick. 'That's the problem with a military solution and no diplomatic strategy behind it – it would have to be a total wipeout to solve the problem.' Last week, Iran's parliament voted unanimously to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA, and the message that Tehran does not want anyone to have a close look at the wreckage was underlined by a menacing article in an Iranian newspaper, claiming Grossi was an Israeli spy who should be executed. 'They cannot have access to our site,' Iran's UN ambassador Amir-Saeid Iravani said. 'Our assessment is that they have not done their jobs.' Until the nuclear inspectorate is allowed access to what remains of the facilities, Patrick said, 'we are driving blind' – which, at the moment, could actually be not just in Iran's but also Trump's interest. 'Iran wants to have nuclear ambiguity for now', he added. For the US president, meanwhile, the lack of empirical evidence has allowed him to claim an emphatic military victory: 'It has allowed his assessment of the strikes' impact to become harder and harder.' How isolated is Iran diplomatically? In recent months, Iran's foreign minister has invested some effort trying to convey to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE that Tehran is not some rogue bellicose state but a mature diplomatic player in the region. 'The war has undone that,' said Patrick. 'And that's the case even though those wealthy Gulf states don't publicly support what the US has done, and even bemoan its short sightedness in private.' The 12-day war and its aftermath have also shown up little return for Iran's diplomatic efforts in Europe. Germany's new chancellor, conservative Friedrich Merz, praised Israel's air strikes on the Islamic Republic, saying it was 'doing the dirty work for all of us', and later added there was 'no reason' to criticise America's attack. Britain's prime minister, Keir Starmer, backed the strikes and only warned mildly of a 'risk of escalation' in the Middle East. 'What will trouble Tehran most is that it hasn't managed to leverage the disagreements between Trump and the European Union,' said Patrick. 'The Iranians had hoped that Europe would be much more condemnatory of the strikes.' Is the regime also weakened domestically? In the wake of Operation Midnight Hammer, some Maga acolytes on social media called on the Iranian people to rise up against the regime. Given the social and economic situation in the west Asian republic, this might sound like a realistic demand: unemployment and poverty rates are high, inflation at almost 40%, in part due to the state's self-punishingly high military spending. It was only three years ago that the country saw civil unrest and mass protests against the regime, triggered by the death in police custody of the 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman Mahsa Amini. Yet Israeli and American air strikes, with a reported death toll of more than 900 lives, have also shored up support for the government. 'The regime is trying to galvanise what happened, and there has been a rallying-around-the-flag effect', Patrick said. 'Even critical voices in the diaspora have been mindful of alienating ordinary Iranians.' Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last shah who has been one of the leading figures of the pro-democracy movement, has endorsed calls for a civil uprising but has appeared isolated. Instead of pro-democracy marches, Tehran has seen the regime parade the coffins of the 'martyred' military chiefs and nuclear scientists who died in the strikes to state funerals. The regime has also further tightened its grip on civil liberties, turning on alleged traitors from within. 'After the strikes, the Iranian opposition called on the regime to mark a fresh start and release political prisoners', says Patrick. In fact, the opposite happened.' During the 12-day war, six Iranians were executed on alleged charges of collaborating with Israel. 'It is clear that a new wave of intense repression has begun, more severe than ever before', the daughter of one political prisoner told Guardian reporters. Prioritising military over social spending might become a harder political sell in the wake of the war, but then there is only so much political-selling that authoritarian regimes need to do while they have the electorate's hands tied behind their backs. 'In truth, Iran's loathsome regime didn't even come close to falling', said foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall in his analysis. What does this mean for the ceasefire? The truce between Israel and Iran is volatile. 'The situation is very unstable, and anything could kick it off,' said Patrick. The list of unpredictable 'anythings' is long: American security agencies have warned of a looming threat of Tehran-backed; US-based 'sleeper cells' could be called in for retaliatory attacks; and Iran's top Shia cleric has issued a fatwa for Trump and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu to be made to 'regret their words and mistakes'. Analysts are concerned about the lack of a political programme to keep the ceasefire in place. Trump has said he is 'not offering Iran anything', while the Iranian side has claimed that the US president wants to return to negotiations. In an interview with the BBC on Monday, Iran's deputy foreign minister, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, said his country would only be open to such talks if the US were to rule out further strikes during the process. But as long as Trump's intelligence assessment of his victory remains the same, Patrick reckoned there was also considerable pressure to keep the ceasefire in place. 'If it were to end, the next stage could only be regime change, and that would take Trump into ideologically difficult territory.' Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Stefan Stern makes a compelling case for a collective U-turn on U-turns. They can make politicians look indecisive and sloppy, but isn't it a good thing that politicians show they can change their mind? After all, he writes: 'Westminster orthodoxy and the real world are not always in perfect alignment.' Charlie Lindar, acting deputy editor, newsletters I enjoyed Sam Jones's interview with Santiago Yahuarcani, the indigenous Peruvian artist whose paintings of pink dolphins (above) and pipe-smoking frogs take you deep into the Amazonian rainforest. Philip Where season one of Squid Game was a word-of-mouth sensation, seasons two and now three have nearly killed off the show's legacy. How did it go so wrong? Stuart Heritage breaks it down in this spoiler-spattered post-mortem. Charlie If Vladimir Putin asked you for a dance, would you say yes? The former Austrian foreign minister Karin Kneissl did so in 2018 – at her own wedding – and has since left Europe behind to head up a think tank in St Petersburg. In this long read, Amanda Coakley asks what led a career diplomat to fall under the Moscow strongman's spell. A riveting morality tale about the petty grievances that animate geopolitics. Philip The Guardian's Phil Daoust has one tip for a long and healthy life: get a grip. In his latest Fit for ever column, he explores how grip strength is linked to heart health, stroke risk and an indicator of your physical wellbeing. Charlie Tennis | Carlos Alcaraz survived Wimbledon's hottest-ever opening day although the Spaniard was far from his sizzling best as he began his quest for a hat-trick of titles with a scare against Fabio Fognini at the All England Club on Monday. Elsewhere on Monday, Emma Raducanu and Sonay Kartal were among a record seven British players to win in the first round. Football | Manchester City have been knocked out of the Club World Cup in an upset 4-3 defeat to Saudi Arabia's Al-Hilal. With the scores level at 2-2 at the end of 90 minutes, goals for Kalidou Koulibaly and and Marcos Leonardo were enough to take Al-Hilal through despite Phil Foden's volley. Formula One | Lando Norris has urged fans at Silverstone not to cast his McLaren teammate and world championship rival, Oscar Piastri, as a villain at Sunday's British Grand Prix. Norris won the Austrian GP in Spielberg after a tense, lights-to-flag fight with Piastri, the pair in almost constant competition over 70 laps. 'Labour bid to woo rebels descends into chaos on eve of welfare vote,' is the splash on the Guardian today. The i has 'No 10 in final push to win over rebel MPs ahead of welfare vote.' The FT opts for 'Diluted welfare reform halves savings but still pushes 150,000 into poverty,' while the Mail splashes with 'Rebel MPs are set to humiliate PM today.' 'NHS will prioritise UK doctors and nurses,' says the Times. 'BBC boss at festival for rapper's hate chant,' is the lead story over at the Telegraph. The Express highlights the same controversy at Glastonbury with: 'BBC boss has 'to act now or resign''. 'Did somebody say..... JUST NICKED,' has the Sun, for a story about arrests of asylum seekers working as food delivery drivers. The Metro leads with 'The Vivienne's tragic last hours,' and the Star focuses on the heatwave with: 'You ain't seen nothing sweat!' The French town that banned its tap water and the chemicals that could be in yours Phoebe Weston heads to Alsace, eastern France, to hear about a ban on drinking water caused by dangerously high levels of 'forever chemicals'. A bit of good news to remind you that the world's not all bad Few office workers do not dream of becoming a digital nomad. But what if that life isn't for you? In this feature, Emily Bratt (above) writes about when she – and others around the globe – discovered they needed the comfort of a 9-5, and the relief they gained from coming back home. 'I had conflated digital nomadism with holidaying,' writes Bratt. 'But it turned out that working in a cafe was still working in a cafe, whether you are in a Starbucks in Swindon or a beach bar in Bali. I found myself resenting having to work when there was so much to explore.' Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday And finally, the Guardian's puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
Reuters
33 minutes ago
- Reuters
Breakingviews - Apple fruitlessly ponders the innovator's dilemma
NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Even a former right-hand man to Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab founder Steve Jobs concedes that the iPhone could be obsolete in a decade. Eddy Cue, who now runs the company's services division, said as much earlier this year during his testimony at the U.S. antitrust trial against Google in making a point about how technological change creates new markets while destroying old ones. The ways in which powerful incumbents respond to changes like those he describes has come to be known as the 'innovator's dilemma,' and they're a big problem for his boss, Tim Cook. Last year's annual gathering of developers for the iOS mobile system signaled a wave of 'Apple Intelligence' improvements. Although the $3 trillion company has long used machine learning here and there, it promised to accelerate efforts. The focus was on technological plumbing, for example to help users find photos and automate writing. Siri, the 15-year-old voice-activated digital assistant, represents the real opportunity, though. The idea was to have it better understand natural language and user intent, and to take action within apps by the end of 2024. Some tools have reached the market, opens new tab, albeit with mixed results. ChatGPT is available on Apple devices and editing pictures is easier, but Apple paused its AI-powered news alerts and summaries because they were inaccurate. Worse, Siri enhancements haven't arrived, and the company won't say when they will. It reflects a broader lack of urgency. Apple's capital expenditures hardly budged after ChatGPT's 2022 release, while Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and others doubled their investments. Cook's priority, it would seem, is returning cash to shareholders. Dividends and stock buybacks are projected at $115 billion for its fiscal year through September 25, 11 times more than what Apple will deploy on fixed assets, according to estimates collected by LSEG. Apple may yet come around and leverage its innate powers to compete in AI. It counts about 1.4 billion active iPhone users, customers who tend to stick with them. If the company could manage to even just match the competition in AI, it would go a long way in keeping them around longer. The bigger edge is in data users provide. Well-designed AI would enable iPhones to spot patterns and handle grunt work. Apple's reputation for prioritizing privacy, and its assurances of safeguarding data by performing as many AI tasks as possible on the devices themselves instead of remotely, also would be a big selling point for anyone worried about surveillance and for developers seeking to minimize cloud computing expenses. These advantages are real, at least based on what competitors are doing. Sam Altman's OpenAI is spending $6.5 billion just to buy iPhone designer Jony Ive's startup. The ChatGPT maker wants to create a device that will serve as an artificial intelligence chokepoint for consumers, accessing zettabytes of user data in the process and making its services the default option. The reasons for Cook's exceedingly patient approach are telling. Craig Federighi, the executive in charge of the company's software engineering, told the Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago that the intended Siri improvements weren't delivered, opens new tab because they didn't live up to Apple's high standards. He added that there was no reason to rush out the wrong features or products because the AI transition will take decades. It's a message wholly consistent with Apple's ethos. The company's success, and user devotion, exists largely because its gadgets are intuitive, beautifully designed, and fastidiously unite software and hardware. Rolling out a janky voice assistant or teaming up with an AI developer that spews out garbage theoretically would erode far more of its dear brand value than taking extra time to get things right. The reality may be less clear, based on Clayton Christensen's influential concept. In his 1997 book, 'The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail,' the Harvard professor outlined how dominant incumbents lose to newcomers in breakthrough markets despite having a litany of advantages, such as greater financial firepower, customer relationships and established R&D practices. Startups can afford to release an imperfect product that's good enough to entice customers. Moreover, new technology tends to improve quickly with each iteration. By the time, the longer-established company competes in earnest, its challenger has created snowballing advantages. It's also easier to attract ambitious engineers and salespeople eager to invent the next big thing. As Jobs said, 'It's better to be a pirate than join the navy.' There's a chance, too, that AI is overhyped and excess money is chasing a market with too little profit. Simply expanding systems by feeding them more computing, data and power no longer easily leads to vast improvements. Other methods, such as giving computers time to ponder their answers may face fundamental limits in dealing with complex problems. That said, even if machine intelligence is merely a tool, and won't exceed human capabilities, it will be useful. AI probably can be expected to increase productivity and foster new forms of work and entertainment. Those are bigger stakes than Apple's unsuccessful efforts at upgrading television or cars. It's also far too early to count the company out. After all, it wasn't the first to develop a PC, smartphone or headphones either. Even if the iPhone gives way to, say, glasses or pins, Apple could ultimately design them better. For now, Apple revolves around its renowned handset, which generated more than half its top line in the first half of the latest fiscal year. Services accounted for almost another quarter, most of it squeezed from iPhone apps, advertising and licensing fees. Throw in AirPods and other accessories, and an iPhone extinction by 2035 could wipe out more than 80% of the company's revenue. Apple shares trade at 26 times estimated earnings over the next 12 months, a multiple 20% higher than its 10-year average, a premium to Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab and only a small discount to both Microsoft and (AMZN.O), opens new tab. It suggests that investors retain confidence that Cook will find a way to capitalize on AI and unravel the innovator's dilemma. Previous technological shifts suggest a less promising outcome awaits. Being slow to adapt can be more than just a squandered opportunity. IBM (IBM.N), opens new tab, for one, lost the PC revolution and missed the mobile one, but keeps peddling mainframes, software and advice. In 1980, it was on top of the world as the most valuable publicly traded company. Big Blue's market capitalization is also far larger today, at $275 billion, but less than a tenth the size of Apple. Follow Robert Cyran on Bluesky, opens new tab.
Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
EXCLUSIVE As America's deadly condo crisis grows, real estate expert issues new warning to owners... over plot that could change red state forever
Florida is currently undergoing the most dramatic condo crisis in history. Four years after the Surfside residential building collapse that killed 98 people, the condo industry has been completely transformed - for the worse.
