Are the Yankees showing signs of regression?
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New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
One defining stat for all 30 MLB teams to help you get you caught up for the second half
Over the course of the Major League Baseball season, the trends, traits and tendencies that make each team unique can get lost in the daily grind. For that reason, the All-Star break provides a perfect opportunity to pause and assess the league's landscape. At this point, every team has played at least 95 games. Throughout thousands of innings and at-bats spanning four months of baseball, the statistical sample needed to evaluate all 30 clubs has slowly grown. Advertisement But there is a lot of baseball left to be played. The puzzle that is each team's season is still being built. We're starting to get a good idea of how the pieces fit together — and hopefully didn't lose any under the couch in the process. Before the second half gets rolling, let's zoom in on one stat that defines each team's season so far, for better or worse. The stats cited in this story are courtesy of Baseball Savant (advanced stats) and FanGraphs. All stats are updated through the All-Star break. Toronto Blue Jays (55-41) 17.7 K% (1st in MLB) Good things happen when you put the ball in play at a high rate and play strong defense. Just ask the Blue Jays. Toronto has taken over the AL East lead behind the league's lowest strikeout rate. They are tied for first in batting average, third in on-base percentage and third in singles. This pairs well with a strong defense, which ranks tied for eighth in defensive runs saved. New York Yankees (53-43) .455 slugging percentage (1st) While some questions can be asked about the Yankees' bullpen and defense, their offense has been elite. New York leads the sport in slugging percentage, expected slugging percentage, on-base percentage, home runs, walks, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage and ranks third in runs scored. Even with this prolific statistical profile, New York sits in second place in the AL East behind the Blue Jays. Boston Red Sox (53-45) 18 blown saves (29th) Despite a stellar offense and torrid close to the first half, Boston remains in third place in the AL East because its pitching and defense have self-destructed at various points. The Red Sox are near the top of the sport in several offensive categories, ranking first in doubles and first in hits, and fifth in runs scored. These positives have been offset by the fact that Boston ranks 21st in runs allowed, 22nd in hits allowed and walks allowed and, to make matters worse, the Red Sox have committed 78 errors (second-most). Advertisement Then there are those glaring blown saves. However, Boston is only three games back of first place. Not the worst spot to be in. Tampa Bay Rays (50-47) 123 stolen bases (1st) The Rays' winning formula has been to get on base, steal bags and drive in runs. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in baseball with 845 hits and leads the sport in stolen bases, snagging 13 more than the next closest team. It's all tied together by the Rays' tendency to come up clutch with runners in scoring position. They have the second-highest batting average with runners in scoring position, just behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. As a result, Tampa Bay ranks ninth in runs scored. Baltimore Orioles (43-52) 132 home runs allowed (29th) How have the Orioles so massively underperformed expectations? Their pitching has gotten pulverized. Their offense hasn't been stellar either, but their staff's struggles have been seemingly insurmountable. Baltimore finds itself towards the top of the league in hits allowed (third), home runs allowed (second), runs allowed (fifth), and opponent exit velocity (fourth). They also have the fifth-fewest quality starts in baseball. As a result, Baltimore may become a seller at the trade deadline. Detroit Tigers (59-38) .444 expected slugging percentage (7th) Detroit is a dangerous team this year because it combines elite offense with top-tier pitching — hence its 11 1/2 game lead in the AL Central. The Tigers rank 12th in hits, sixth in runs scored and barrel percentage, and tied-eighth in homers. Pair these impressive metrics with the sixth-best ERA in the majors, thanks to a powerful staff led by reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, and you get a team that's 21 games over .500. Minnesota Twins (47-49) 249 walks allowed (1st) Even after a slow start, the Twins are within shouting distance of a .500 record, and one important factor in their stabilization has been their ability to avoid walking batters. Minnesota's other pitching metrics have been rather mediocre, so mitigating free passes has been critical. Advertisement The Twins have just 25 quality starts, 28th in the league. They also rank roughly middle of the pack in runs allowed, hits allowed and opponent exit velocity. Kansas City Royals (47-50) 328 runs scored (29th) The Royals' meager offense has been their downfall and a critical part of that is their approach. Kansas City has seen the second-fewest pitches in baseball, has the league's second-highest chase rate and has walked less often than any other team. One positive has been the team's ability to put the ball in play, recording the second-fewest strikeouts in baseball, but the power numbers are poor. The Royals rank 29th in homers and 26th in slugging percentage and barrel percentage. Despite its underwhelming offense, Kansas City is still only 4 1/2 games out of the American League's last Wild Card spot. Cleveland Guardians (46-49) .227 expected batting average (30th) It's actually impressive that Cleveland is just three games under .500, considering how abysmal it has been offensively this season. The Guardians rank towardsthe bottom of the league in too many metrics, including expected slugging percentage (30th), average exit velocity (28th), hard-hit percentage (30th), hits (30th) and runs scored (26th). If their offense does not improve, Cleveland may slide farther down the standings, considering their minus-45 run differential. Chicago White Sox (32-65) .235 expected batting average (28th) Yes, Chicago's pitching has been mediocre, but not poor enough to justify being 23 games under .500. The offense is the real culprit, despite being tied for eighth in exit velocity. Chicago has the second-fewest hits in baseball, third-fewest homers and second-fewest RBIs. The White Sox also have the league's fourth-worst strikeout rate and fourth-worst expected slugging percentage. Advertisement On the bright side, they're on pace to be better than last year. That counts for something — right? Houston Astros (56-40) 930 strikeouts (1st) Headlined by the hard-throwing Hunter Brown, Houston's aggressive pitching staff has propelled the Astros to a five-game lead in the AL West. The Astros attack the strike zone, throwing the sixth-fewest pitches this season while recording far and away the most strikeouts in baseball and generating the league's second-best whiff percentage. Even when the ball is put in play against the Astros, they allow just the second-lowest exit velocity in the sport. Seattle Mariners (51-45) 14,648 pitches seen (2nd) When facing this Mariners' lineup, opposing pitchers ought to be prepared for a battle. Seattle applies persistent pressure by consistently working counts, which has resulted in the team seeing the second-most pitches in the sport. While this is a credit to the Mariners' meticulous approach at the dish, it is also a sign of respect. Giving in against this group is a risky proposition, considering Seattle ranks seventh in hard-hit percentage and has hit the sixth-most homers in baseball. Probably not surprising, considering the Mariners are led by 2025 Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh. Texas Rangers (48-49) 3.31 ERA (1st) Where would the Rangers be without elite pitching? In addition to their sparkling team ERA, Texas has handcuffed opponents with the lowest slugging percentage in baseball, having given up the third-fewest homers. While starters Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle have inflated these numbers, it's been a true team effort. Despite these glistening stats, Texas remains a .500 ball club because of its offensive struggles. The team ranks 24th in total hits and 23rd in expected batting average. Los Angeles Angels (47-49) 11.0 barrel percentage (2nd) Advertisement The Halos are somehow hovering around .500 despite ranking 24th in team batting average and tallying the second-most strikeouts at the plate. How have they compensated for this lack of consistent contact? Supreme efficiency. Simply put: their good swings are really good. The Angels have the highest barrel percentage in the league, resulting in the fifth-most homers. Of the team's 748 hits this season, 139 have been dingers. Athletics (41-57) 251 opponent barrels allowed (29th) The Athletics' pitching has been poor … and even that is being polite. Only one team has allowed more barrelled baseballs than them and the stats reflect that reality — the A's have allowed the second-most runs, the most home runs and the second-most hits in baseball. Did we mention they've issued 358 walks? Los Angeles Dodgers (58-39) .471 expected slugging percentage (2nd) Los Angeles' pitching has been pedestrian at best, yet the Dodgers lead the loaded NL West by 5 1/2 games. The same diabolically deep lineup that led the Dodgers to last season's World Series crown continues to dominate opposing pitching, despite cooling ahead of the All-Star break. The team is tied for second in batting average, third in expected batting average and second in both hits and home runs. The Dodgers' ability to hit for power, highlighted by their .471 expected slugging percentage, allows them to make up for their pitching staff's lackluster 4.29 ERA (23rd). Did I mention they also lead the majors in runs scored and rank third in slugging percentage? San Diego Padres (52-44) .242 expected batting average against (3rd) San Diego currently holds the No. 2 spot in the NL West and a Wild Card spot because its pitching staff has exceeded expectations, ranking top 10 in the league in: strikeouts (tied-eighth), earned runs allowed (fifth), homers allowed (tied-sixth) and opponent slugging percentage (tied-second). Advertisement Yet the stat that best summarizes how effective the Padres' pitching has been is opponents' .242 expected batting average, which has overshadowed some of their ugly hitting stats. The Padres sit 28th in barrel percentage, are fifth-lowest in exit velocity, 29th in hard-hit percentage and 25th in runs scored. San Francisco Giants (52-45) 7.6 opponent barrel percentage (3rd) The Giants' pitching has shone this season thanks to their collective ability to avoid hard contact. Their 39.4 percent hard-hit percentage allowed (tied for third-lowest) has directly resulted in allowing the league's fourth-fewest barrels, and they're tied for the second-fewest homers allowed. All of these stellar numbers are directly tied to the league's second-lowest opponent barrel percentage. As it turns out, limiting hard contact consistently can also do wonders for a staff's ERA. San Francisco holds the third-lowest mark in baseball, which has led to 45 quality starts in 97 games. Arizona Diamondbacks (47-50) 42.7 hard-hit percentage allowed (28th) Despite having one of the better offenses in baseball, Arizona is hovering around .500 and in fourth place in the crowded NL West because its pitching has fallen flat. The Diamondbacks' offense ranks second in the league in extra-base-hit percentage and doubles and fourth in homers. These efforts have been scuttled in part because their pitching staff ranks towards the top of the league in hard-hit percentage (third), exit velocity against (third), barrel percentage (second) and runs allowed (fourth). As a result, Arizona should be one of the prime sellers at the deadline, as it possesses several intriguing pieces that could help contending teams. Colorado Rockies (22-74) .472 opponent expected slugging percentage (30th) While Coors Field has always been known as a hitter's ballpark, that moniker is especially true this year because the Rockies' pitching has been abysmal, altitude or not. Advertisement Issues stem from the team's struggle to consistently throw first-pitch strikes. As a result, Rockies pitchers often find themselves behind in counts and ultimately pay the price for their lack of aggression early in at-bats, allowing the highest opponent expected slugging percentage in all of baseball. Fans in the Mile High City might already be counting the days until Ethan Holliday, drafted No. 4 on Sunday, is called up. Philadelphia Phillies (55-41) 88.6 mph average opponent exit velocity (1st) Phillies pitchers have excelled at minimizing hard contact by opposing hitters, ranking top five in hard-hit percentage (tied for second-lowest), barrel percentage (first) and expected slugging (third). This all correlates to a majors-high 53 quality starts in 96 games. Philadelphia's pitching keeps the squad in games, and the offense does the rest with quality at-bats, ranking fourth in on-base percentage, seventh in hits, tied for sixth in walks and sixth in hard-hit percentage. New York Mets (55-42) 83 home runs allowed (1st) This iteration of the Mets has been bolstered by pitching, and even though the staff has cooled off after a stellar start to the year, the numbers are still pretty impressive. New York ranks eighth in strikeouts, tied for ninth in opponent batting average, tied for second in opponent slugging percentage and fourth in ERA while allowing the fewest home runs in baseball. Now the question: Is this production sustainable? At the moment, it appears possible. Since June 1, the Mets have given up the seventh-fewest runs in baseball and the 10th-fewest hits, though they have walked the fifth-most batters. Miami Marlins (44-51) 89.9 mph average opponent exit velocity (27th) The Marlins' offense has kept them in games this season, ranking fourth in batting average, fifth in singles, and seventh in doubles. These numbers have exceeded expectations, but their pitching has been a letdown. Advertisement Miami's pitching struggles to generate whiffs, and when its hurlers get hit, they generally get hit hard. Marlins pitchers rank 23rd in strikeouts and 27th in opponent exit velocity, resulting in the league's sixth-highest expected opponent batting average. Atlanta Braves (42-53) 9.4 K/9 (2nd) Without quality pitching, an underwhelming season for the Braves could have been a downright disaster. Atlanta's pitching has allowed the fifth-fewest hits in baseball, is tied for the fourth-most quality starts, and ranks second with 878 strikeouts. Even with their pitching prowess, the Braves remain 11 games under .500 because they haven't hit to their standard. Atlanta ranks 24th in runs scored, 21st in batting average and 20th in hits. Washington Nationals (38-58) 5.21 ERA (28th) Similar to Miami, Washington has trotted out a respectable lineup with several impressive young bats, but its pitching staff as a whole has been abysmal. In fact, the Nats have the second-highest expected batting average in baseball, but think of any pitching statistic and they are probably towards the bottom of the league. Washington ranks in the bottom third of the league in the following metrics: opponent expected batting average (28th), opponent exit velocity (29th), ERA (28th), home runs allowed (22nd) and hits allowed (27th). There are more, but I digress. Chicago Cubs (57-39) .468 expected slugging percentage (3rd) Everything about the Cubs' offense is elite. Their process is precise and the results are self-explanatory. Chicago sees a lot of pitches, rarely chases and consistently barrels baseballs. As a result, the Cubs are near the top of several offensive categories, including expected slugging percentage, runs scored (second), hits (third), home runs (third), and on-base percentage (eighth). Did I mention they have stolen the third-most bases in the league? Shout-out to Pete Crow-Armstrong. Milwaukee Brewers (56-40) 110 stolen bases (2nd) In a modern game obsessed with exit velocity and launch angle, the Brewers play an old-school brand of baseball that works for them. Milwaukee is 16 games above .500 despite ranking last in barrel percentage and exit velocity and 28th in expected slugging percentage. Advertisement That's wild. Instead, the Brewers swipe bags, drive in runners and pitch well enough to tie the whole thing together. They have stolen the second-most bases in the league while ranking sixth in batting average with runners in scoring position and tied for sixth in ERA. St. Louis Cardinals (51-46) 36 errors committed (T-3rd) The Cardinals keep finding ways to win baseball games. This squad was counted out before the season began, but proceeded to defy expectations thanks to its bats and defense. St. Louis ranks 11th in hits, sixth in doubles, and 10th in runs scored. However, the Cardinals' pitching staff ranks 24th in hits allowed and 26th in opponent hard-hit percentage. That's where the gloves come in, as the Cardinals have committed the third-fewest errors in baseball. Cincinnati Reds (50-47) 39.2 opponent hard hit percentage (T-2nd) An essential part of the Reds' winning formula this season has been avoiding hard contact. Cincinnati's pitchers do not generate a lot of swings-and-misses, but they pitch effectively within the zone and force weak contact. The Reds are tied for the fifth-most quality starts (39) and are one of just six teams with multiple complete games. The offense gives them just enough run support to make it work with great plate discipline, owning the second-lowest chase rate in baseball. They also rank 11th in runs and 13th in stolen bases. Pittsburgh Pirates (39-58) 66 home runs (30th) It's unrealistic to have a respectable offense when you pair an inability to hit for power and one of the league's fourth-highest strikeout rate. That sums up the Pirates' season thus far. Pittsburgh ranks 24th in expected slugging percentage, 27th in hits and 30th in runs scored. Plus, a majority of their hits have been singles, sporting a league-low 5.8 extra-base-hit percentage. (Top photo of Houston's Hunter Brown: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
USA Today
2 hours ago
- USA Today
Cameron Boozer called Duke 'overlooked,' and I can't wait to hate again
I'm going to share something in confidence this morning and all I ask in return is for it not to be thrown in my face at a later date: I was kinda rooting for Duke last season. I know, I know. It pains me to admit as much as it pains you to read, but hear me out. I wasn't directly rooting for the Blue Devils. Growing up a Terps fan, I hated them as much as anyone. The problem is I just really enjoyed watching Cooper Flagg play basketball. So, while I didn't actually care about the result of their games, my hope of seeing a great Flagg performance was, by extension, me rooting for Duke. I feel gross even typing that. It brings me immeasurable shame, only eased by the suspicion that my split interests weren't unique last college basketball season. A lot of us hate Duke. A lot of us also enjoy great players -- and Flagg was able to have one of the greatest freshman seasons ever without being that traditional Duke brand of dislikable. Those two things were hard to reconcile. Luckily, today, I have good news for those of us who want to restore the feeling: the Boozer twins are here. Specifically, I'm talking about Cameron Boozer, the five-star kid of Carlos who was named the Gatorade National Athlete of the Year last night at the ESPYs. He wasn't given time for a speech, and judging by a recent interview he gave ESPN, that was probably for the best. Because diving into that story this morning, I couldn't believe what I was reading. Boozer actually let these words come out of his mouth about Duke: "I think we're very overlooked right now, but once the season starts, that'll change for sure. ... I think just playing together, playing hard, defending, competing, we're going to be in a spot to get [to the Final Four] just like they did last year." Excuse me, what?? Duke... overlooked!? Next thing you know he'll be telling me about the uphill battle he faced to become a top prospect as the son of a former NBA All-Star. I know a Cowboys-Lakers-Yankees fan when I hear one. ESPYS: 16 fabulous photos from the red carpet This is nonsense of course. Nobody is overlooking Duke. The Blue Devils just played in the national championship game and they have the third-best odds (+1300) at BetMGM to win next year's title. Though the team is moving forward without Flagg and its other freshman standouts lost to the draft, Duke once again brought in the top recruiting class, which is simply the new normal down there in Durham. That class includes two other five-star players, Boozer's four-star twin Cayden, and the crowned jewel himself, Cameron -- a projected top-three pick in Bryan Kalbrosky's early 2026 NBA mock draft. At this point, we just expect Duke to be good every year. If Flagg said something similar last summer, forgive me for missing it. I would have reacted the same way. But thank you, Cameron Boozer, for bringing me to my senses. Comments like that are an easy way to make sure I never get caught slipping again. 2026 NBA Mock Draft While Cameron Boozer is a top-three pick in BK's new mock, he isn't the projected No. 1 pick. That distinction belongs to AJ Dybantsa of BYU (still weird to think about), who Bryan has landing in Utah, because of course: "The Jazz have an obvious plan as they enter this phase of their rebuild process after losing key rotation players like John Collins, Collin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson. They're trying to get a high draft pick, and the connections to AJ Dybantsa are obvious. The 2025 FIBA U19 World Cup MVP transferred to prep school in Utah before committing to BYU, where Jazz governor Ryan Smith and CEO Danny Ainge are both alumni and donors. Dybantsa would pair well on the wing with talented Utah rookie Ace Bailey." BK is the best draft prognosticator in the game, so definitely check out his early mock to familiarize yourself with some of the top names to be on the lookout for. The NFL has a 2nd-round pick crisis NFL training camps are due to begin soon, but 30 of the 32 players selected in the second round of April's draft have yet to ink contracts with their respective teams. As FTW's Christian D'Andrea wrote, the reason might have to do with the guaranteed deals of the two players who did sign: "The answer may lie in Schwesinger and Higgins' contracts. The two signed fully guaranteed deals -- the first time that's happened under the NFL's most recent collective bargaining agreement (CBA) signed in 2020. Higgins received four years and $11.7 million. Schwesinger got four years and $11.8 million. While there's no one official reason for this rash of holdouts, the most likely culprit is that teams don't want to dole out all those guarantees." Here's more of the context of that from Christian, including the names of all 30 players still holding out. Quick Hits: Mahomes on Flagg ... Klagan?? ... and more Thanks for reading. We'll be back next week with more. This was For The Win's daily newsletter, The Morning Win. Did a friend recommend or forward this to you? If so, subscribe here.
Newsweek
3 hours ago
- Newsweek
Yankees Predicted to Swing 8-Player Blockbuster Trade in 13 Days
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The New York Yankees stumbled into the All-Star break, giving up their division lead to the Toronto Blue Jays and exposing several weaknesses on the roster. Now the team is left to plug those holes with external additions where they can before the trade deadline. And general manager Brian Cashman has vowed to do so. "Whether it's bullpen guys or starting pitchers, it's just all of it," Cashman said of where the team will look to improve, per ESPN's Jorge Castillo. "We have people that are capable, but I think it also needs to get some help. And if I can do so, great. ... We're going to be fully engaged and see where it takes us." As the Yankees look for a holistic overhaul that can improve numerous positions of the roster ahead of a playoff run, there could be one trade partner that can help. Pete Caldera of predicted that the Yankees would swing a massive deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks to bring in several reinforcements. BRONX, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 21: New York Yankee general manager Brian Cashman speaks to the media during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 21, 2022 in Bronx, New York. (Photo by Dustin... BRONX, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 21: New York Yankee general manager Brian Cashman speaks to the media during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 21, 2022 in Bronx, New York. (Photo by) More Satloff/Getty "One day before MLB's July 31 trade deadline, the Yankees land (Eugenio) Suarez, starter Merrill Kelly and lefty reliever Jalen Beeks from the Diamondbacks," Caldera projected. "In exchange, the Yankees send right-hander Clayton Beeter, top minor league pitching prospects Ben Hess and Bryce Cunningham, outfielder Everson Pereira and infielder Roc Riggio to Arizona." That trade might be ambitious, but the Diamondbacks do seem like one of the only likely sellers with answers to all of the Yankees' needs. Suarez earned an All-Star bid this season as one of the sport's best third basemen, while Kelly could serve as a key mid-rotation arm and Beeks as some critical relief reinforcement. Meanwhile, Caldera's projection would allow the Yankees to keep top prospects George Lombard Jr., Spencer Jones and Cam Schlittler, all of whom might be untouchable from the organization's perspective. But with just 13 days to go before Caldera's projected date, pulling off an eight-player deal like this will be complicated. More MLB: Dodgers Make Trade Decision Amid Tanner Scott 'Struggles'
