Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: These strikeout artists have ugly surface stats — so it's time to buy low

Yahoo

5 days ago

Although there are more advanced stats available to fantasy baseball managers than ever before, many analysts maintain that if they used just one statistic to assess pitchers, they would still choose K-BB%. Simply put, hurlers who dominate the strike zone are well-positioned for success, even if they have some warts within their batted-ball tendencies.
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For this week's edition of the Trade Analyzer, I took a different slant and looked at pitchers who have an ERA over 3.70 despite ranking among the K-BB% leaders. Let's take a deep dive on these players, as they may be excellent buy-low candidates for the Trade Market.
Dylan Cease, SP, San Diego Padres
Cease has been arguably the most frustrating pitcher to roster this year. While pitchers who are injured, such as Corbin Burnes, are sent off rosters to create space for new players, Cease keeps hanging around, hurting his teams' stats in the process. In fact, thanks to his bloated ratios (4.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) and low win total (3), the right-hander ranks 118th in starting pitcher production this year.
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But there remains tremendous potential in Cease, who ranks eighth in the majors in strikeouts and 11th among qualified pitchers in K-BB% ratio. He has been tremendously unlucky, as his .330 BABIP is fifth-worst among qualified hurlers and his 67.7% strand rate is the 10th lowest. All of the popular ERA estimators for Cease are below 3.50. He's the ultimate buy-low pitcher right now.
Sonny Gray, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
The ERA estimators can't agree on Gray. His FIP and xFIP sit around the 3.00 mark, while his xERA hovers around 4.00. In both of his seasons with the Cardinals, the veteran has been among the K-BB% leaders, thanks to an above-average strikeout rate and elite control skills. But in both of those years, Gray has produced an average ERA. He allows his share of hard contact, fly balls and home runs, which will likely keep Gray from returning to ace status. But he is rock-solid as No. 2/3 fantasy starter.
Jesús Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
There are several reasons to buy low on Luzardo right now. His .361 BABIP ranks second worst among qualified pitchers, and his 70.3% strand rate is the 12th worst mark. His 4.08 ERA is substantially higher than all of his ERA estimators. And he allowed 20 of his 41 earned runs over a two-start stretch from May 31 to June 5, before bouncing back by allowing five earned runs while logging a 21:5 K:BB ratio over his next three starts.
Jack Flaherty, SP, Detroit Tigers
Flaherty is the first player to this point in the article whom I wouldn't be excited to add to my roster. There is no doubt that he's dominating the strike zone, as his 19.0% K-BB ratio ranks 21st among hurlers with at least 70 innings. But opposing hitters are doing plenty of damage when they do connect, as his barrel rate, hard-hit rate and fly ball rate are among the worst in baseball. Additionally, his worst work has come of late, with an 8:8 K:BB ratio, 4 HR and 15 ER across 7 IP in his past two starts.
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The fact that Flaherty earns plenty of strikeouts while pitching for a top team makes him worth rostering, but I wouldn't trade for him.
Mason Miller, RP, Athletics
Miller remains one of the best at striking out batters, as his 39.5% strikeout rate ranks fourth among hurlers who have thrown at least 20 innings. But his control skills have taken a turn for the worse this year (12.6% walk rate), with the problem arising during May and continuing into June. Hitters are also making stronger contact against Miller this year, as his 88.0 mph average exit velocity allowed is 1.9 mph higher than last year's mark. He's still excellent, and he should post an ERA in the 3.00s from this point forward. Still, there are some warts that need to be corrected before I put Miller back in the top tier of closers.
Tanner Scott, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Throughout his career, there are two iterations of Scott — the one who is wild and the one who is awesome. This year, the 30-year-old has thrown us a curve by being neither.
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His control skills have been incredible, with his 2.8% walk rate ranking as the second-best mark of anyone with 30 innings pitched. And his strikeout skills continue to be strong, as his 28.4% rate is similar to his career mark. Scott's ERA estimators are significantly lower than his 3.65 mark, and he has been plagued by poor timing, as is evidenced by his 62.1% strand rate. Even with the Dodgers sharing some save chances, Scott ranks 10th in baseball in that category, and he has collected six of the team's past eight saves.
I'm not worried about the Dodgers trading for a closer this summer, and I expect Scott to have plenty of value the rest of the way. A buy-low offer would be a smart move by those who need saves.