Falcons 2025 preview: Can a revamped defense improve enough to make a difference?

New York Times

16-07-2025

The Atlanta Falcons haven't made the playoffs since 2017, so as a preview to the 2025 season, we're looking at the most likely statistical path for a return. We're relying on a number of statistics but leaning most heavily on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which measures the efficiency of every play run by every team and is widely considered a reliable indicator of team strength.
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In the last decade, playoff teams have finished an average of ninth in overall DVOA, 10th in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA. The Falcons, as currently constructed — $174.7 million of cap commitments on offense versus $123.3 million on defense — likely will have to lean more heavily on their offense than most.
So what are the realistic statistical landing spaces that could get Atlanta back into the postseason? We asked DVOA's creator, Aaron Schatz of FTNFantasy, and he believes that a Falcons team with a top-10 offense could make the playoffs with a defense in the top 20.
That leads to two more questions: What are the paths this team could take to reach the top 10 in offensive DVOA and top 20 in defensive DVOA? We looked at the offense last week. Now, on to the defense.
The Falcons were 28th in defensive DVOA in 2024. Only the Giants, Patriots, Panthers and Jaguars were worse, and only two teams outside the top 15 in defensive DVOA (the Rams at 25th and the Commanders at 26th) made the playoffs. Atlanta was 23rd in scoring defense (24.9) and gave up 30 or more points four times in the final seven games. Getting into the top half of the league in defensive DVOA probably isn't realistic for the Falcons, but some improvement almost certainly is required for a postseason berth.
Clearly recognizing this, head coach Raheem Morris oversaw a dramatic overhaul of the unit in the offseason, replacing defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake with old friend and former Falcons assistant Jeff Ulbrich and retooling the roster to get younger and more athletic.
Five regular starters from last year's defense — safety Justin Simmons, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, outside linebackers Matt Judon and Lorenzo Carter and inside linebacker Nate Landman — are gone. Jarrett (Bears), Carter (Titans) and Landman (Rams) signed elsewhere as free agents. Simmons and Judon remain unsigned.
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Those five departures have an average age of 30. In place of those snaps, the Falcons will rely on free-agent signees Leonard Floyd, a 32-year-old outside linebacker, and Divine Deablo, a 26-year-old inside linebacker, along with first-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. and 2024 defensive tackle picks Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus. (The average age of the replacements is 24.5.)
Ulbrich is the fourth Atlanta defensive coordinator in as many years, but there is at least one source of continuity. He will run a 3-4 base defense despite presiding over Robert Saleh's 4-3 scheme the last four seasons as the New York Jets' defensive coordinator, meaning it will be the first time since the 2021 and 2022 seasons that Atlanta has kept the same defensive structure in back-to-back seasons.
The Falcons went from a 3-4 under Dean Pees in 2022 to a 4-3 under Ryan Nielsen in 2023, back to a 3-4 under Lake and Morris last season. Like every coordinator in the league, Ulbrich has promised his scheme will be versatile and incorporate elements of both styles, but it became clear during the team's offseason workouts that he's also wary of overcomplicating it.
'We're just going to play fast and not think,' Deablo said. 'They just want everybody to have simple jobs and go full speed.'
'Attack' has been the word most uttered by Atlanta's players and new coaches. Dorlus called the system 'controlled chaos.'
The No. 1 priority for Ulbrich and the Falcons is to make opposing quarterbacks less comfortable. They were 31st in sacks (31) and 30th in pressure percentage (28.5) last season, according to TruMedia.
The pass rush is not the only problem, though. Their opponents had the third-lowest time to throw in the league last year (2.94 seconds), according to TruMedia, an indication that quarterbacks are finding open receivers quickly.
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The Falcons were 29th in passer rating allowed (100.2) and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed with 31. Almost half of those (15) came on third down.
'There's no great defense in this league that didn't affect the quarterback,' Ulbrich said. 'It's an absolute priority and it's something that has to get fixed.'
Atlanta's secondary personnel is almost identical to last season, although rookies Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman could find spots in the rotation. That means the bulk of the responsibility for changing the pass defense will go to the new pass rushers — Floyd, Walker, Pearce and Bralen Trice, last year's third-round draft pick who missed the 2024 season because of a knee injury.
'I get beat up all year about not getting sacks, and that's got to change,' Morris said. 'The only way you can change that is to change that. That was part of our process, very intentional, going out and trying to fix the edge room.'
Floyd has averaged 9 1/2 sacks in the last five seasons. Outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie, a 2022 second-round pick, has had 12 sacks over the last two seasons, and inside linebacker Kaden Elliss led the NFL in pressure percentage (29.3 percent) last season. The draft assets spent on Walker (No. 15) and Pearce (No. 26) suggest Atlanta expects them to be impact pass rushers immediately as well.
Outside linebackers coach Jacquies Smith called the team's pass rush personnel 'a big pot of gumbo' and said the Falcons will spend the preseason determining how all those ingredients best mix.
Atlanta's run defense was slightly better than its pass defense last season, although not much. The Falcons finished 21st in rush defense EPA, 23rd in yards allowed before first contact (1.59) and 26th in rush defense success rate, according to TruMedia.
If Orhorhoro and Dorlus can prove to be an upgrade from Jarrett and 31-year-old defensive tackle Eddie Goldman, who also left via free agency, that will be a boost for the run defense. Replacing Jarrett in the leadership department will be just as hard as replacing him on the field.
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He was the longest-tenured Falcon (10 years), but the team failed to reach a deal to keep him in the offseason, prompting his move to the Bears. The team will lean on safety Jessie Bates, who enters his third season in Atlanta, to fill that void, assistant head coach for defense Jerry Gray said.
'(Bates) is one of those rare players that you hear all the things about him and you evaluate him coming out of college and in free agency and then you meet him and he's better than that,' said new defensive pass game coordinator Mike Rutenberg. 'Not only as a player, but as a person. He's so unique. He's a true combination of leader and unique player. He's a total force multiplier.'
This defense will need more than one player like that, though, if it's going to move into the type of statistical category to make the Falcons a playoff team.
'We have a lot of youth, but we have the right vets in the right positions to tell us what to do,' Orhorhoro said. 'We have all stepped up. We all know the opportunity at hand. We have all accepted the challenge.'
(Top photo of Leonard Floyd, left, and Jalon Walker: Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)