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New York Times
16-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Falcons 2025 preview: Can a revamped defense improve enough to make a difference?
The Atlanta Falcons haven't made the playoffs since 2017, so as a preview to the 2025 season, we're looking at the most likely statistical path for a return. We're relying on a number of statistics but leaning most heavily on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which measures the efficiency of every play run by every team and is widely considered a reliable indicator of team strength. Advertisement In the last decade, playoff teams have finished an average of ninth in overall DVOA, 10th in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA. The Falcons, as currently constructed — $174.7 million of cap commitments on offense versus $123.3 million on defense — likely will have to lean more heavily on their offense than most. So what are the realistic statistical landing spaces that could get Atlanta back into the postseason? We asked DVOA's creator, Aaron Schatz of FTNFantasy, and he believes that a Falcons team with a top-10 offense could make the playoffs with a defense in the top 20. That leads to two more questions: What are the paths this team could take to reach the top 10 in offensive DVOA and top 20 in defensive DVOA? We looked at the offense last week. Now, on to the defense. The Falcons were 28th in defensive DVOA in 2024. Only the Giants, Patriots, Panthers and Jaguars were worse, and only two teams outside the top 15 in defensive DVOA (the Rams at 25th and the Commanders at 26th) made the playoffs. Atlanta was 23rd in scoring defense (24.9) and gave up 30 or more points four times in the final seven games. Getting into the top half of the league in defensive DVOA probably isn't realistic for the Falcons, but some improvement almost certainly is required for a postseason berth. Clearly recognizing this, head coach Raheem Morris oversaw a dramatic overhaul of the unit in the offseason, replacing defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake with old friend and former Falcons assistant Jeff Ulbrich and retooling the roster to get younger and more athletic. Five regular starters from last year's defense — safety Justin Simmons, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, outside linebackers Matt Judon and Lorenzo Carter and inside linebacker Nate Landman — are gone. Jarrett (Bears), Carter (Titans) and Landman (Rams) signed elsewhere as free agents. Simmons and Judon remain unsigned. Advertisement Those five departures have an average age of 30. In place of those snaps, the Falcons will rely on free-agent signees Leonard Floyd, a 32-year-old outside linebacker, and Divine Deablo, a 26-year-old inside linebacker, along with first-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. and 2024 defensive tackle picks Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus. (The average age of the replacements is 24.5.) Ulbrich is the fourth Atlanta defensive coordinator in as many years, but there is at least one source of continuity. He will run a 3-4 base defense despite presiding over Robert Saleh's 4-3 scheme the last four seasons as the New York Jets' defensive coordinator, meaning it will be the first time since the 2021 and 2022 seasons that Atlanta has kept the same defensive structure in back-to-back seasons. The Falcons went from a 3-4 under Dean Pees in 2022 to a 4-3 under Ryan Nielsen in 2023, back to a 3-4 under Lake and Morris last season. Like every coordinator in the league, Ulbrich has promised his scheme will be versatile and incorporate elements of both styles, but it became clear during the team's offseason workouts that he's also wary of overcomplicating it. 'We're just going to play fast and not think,' Deablo said. 'They just want everybody to have simple jobs and go full speed.' 'Attack' has been the word most uttered by Atlanta's players and new coaches. Dorlus called the system 'controlled chaos.' The No. 1 priority for Ulbrich and the Falcons is to make opposing quarterbacks less comfortable. They were 31st in sacks (31) and 30th in pressure percentage (28.5) last season, according to TruMedia. The pass rush is not the only problem, though. Their opponents had the third-lowest time to throw in the league last year (2.94 seconds), according to TruMedia, an indication that quarterbacks are finding open receivers quickly. Advertisement The Falcons were 29th in passer rating allowed (100.2) and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed with 31. Almost half of those (15) came on third down. 'There's no great defense in this league that didn't affect the quarterback,' Ulbrich said. 'It's an absolute priority and it's something that has to get fixed.' Atlanta's secondary personnel is almost identical to last season, although rookies Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman could find spots in the rotation. That means the bulk of the responsibility for changing the pass defense will go to the new pass rushers — Floyd, Walker, Pearce and Bralen Trice, last year's third-round draft pick who missed the 2024 season because of a knee injury. 'I get beat up all year about not getting sacks, and that's got to change,' Morris said. 'The only way you can change that is to change that. That was part of our process, very intentional, going out and trying to fix the edge room.' Floyd has averaged 9 1/2 sacks in the last five seasons. Outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie, a 2022 second-round pick, has had 12 sacks over the last two seasons, and inside linebacker Kaden Elliss led the NFL in pressure percentage (29.3 percent) last season. The draft assets spent on Walker (No. 15) and Pearce (No. 26) suggest Atlanta expects them to be impact pass rushers immediately as well. Outside linebackers coach Jacquies Smith called the team's pass rush personnel 'a big pot of gumbo' and said the Falcons will spend the preseason determining how all those ingredients best mix. Atlanta's run defense was slightly better than its pass defense last season, although not much. The Falcons finished 21st in rush defense EPA, 23rd in yards allowed before first contact (1.59) and 26th in rush defense success rate, according to TruMedia. If Orhorhoro and Dorlus can prove to be an upgrade from Jarrett and 31-year-old defensive tackle Eddie Goldman, who also left via free agency, that will be a boost for the run defense. Replacing Jarrett in the leadership department will be just as hard as replacing him on the field. Advertisement He was the longest-tenured Falcon (10 years), but the team failed to reach a deal to keep him in the offseason, prompting his move to the Bears. The team will lean on safety Jessie Bates, who enters his third season in Atlanta, to fill that void, assistant head coach for defense Jerry Gray said. '(Bates) is one of those rare players that you hear all the things about him and you evaluate him coming out of college and in free agency and then you meet him and he's better than that,' said new defensive pass game coordinator Mike Rutenberg. 'Not only as a player, but as a person. He's so unique. He's a true combination of leader and unique player. He's a total force multiplier.' This defense will need more than one player like that, though, if it's going to move into the type of statistical category to make the Falcons a playoff team. 'We have a lot of youth, but we have the right vets in the right positions to tell us what to do,' Orhorhoro said. 'We have all stepped up. We all know the opportunity at hand. We have all accepted the challenge.' (Top photo of Leonard Floyd, left, and Jalon Walker: Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Eagles Need To Sign Super Bowl Slot Receiver, Claims ESPN
Eagles Need To Sign Super Bowl Slot Receiver, Claims ESPN originally appeared on Athlon Sports. Do the Philadelphia Eagles have an obvious roster hole on offense? As defending Super Bowl champions, the first reaction might be "no.'' At second glance? Advertisement Heck, we still think it's a "no.'' But ESPN politely disagrees. ESPN analyst Aaron Schatz has identified one potential upgrade that - if he's right - could solidify their championship foundation: veteran wide receiver Tyler Boyd. Schatz's recommendation centers on addressing depth at the wide receiver position, particularly finding 'a slot receiver who can open underneath and convert third downs.' While the Eagles boast one of the NFL's most formidable receiving duos in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the questions begin to mount when examining what lies beneath their star tandem. Boyd registered 39 catches for 390 yards over 16 games in 2024 with Tennessee, numbers that were hampered by poor quarterback play and a late-season foot injury. However, these modest statistics tell only part of Boyd's story and underscore a crucial point about his career trajectory: he has never been a true number one receiver, yet has consistently produced when placed in complementary roles. Advertisement During his eight seasons in Cincinnati, Boyd compiled 513 receptions for 6,000 yards and 31 touchdowns. His most impressive campaign came in 2018, when he finished as the Bengals' leading receiver with 76 receptions for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns. What makes this achievement particularly noteworthy is that Boyd accomplished this without the benefit of being a primary focal point of opposing defenses. Having said all of that ... is Boyd better than Jahan Doston? The Eagles' current situation at the third receiver spot centers around Dotson, whose first season in Philadelphia raised more questions than it answered. After being acquired from Washington, Dotson managed just 19 catches for 216 yards in 17 regular-season games. The organization's decision to decline his fifth-year option speaks volumes about their confidence level in his development. While Dotson still possesses the athletic tools that made him a first-round pick, his struggles to find consistent production in the Eagles' system highlight the challenge of projecting young receivers. Advertisement Boyd, conversely, brings a track record of reliability that could prove invaluable in critical moments. Boyd's postseason experience, including appearances in Super Bowl LVI and multiple playoff runs with Cincinnati, give him a history of performing under pressure. The Eagles' question here: Would an addition like this really only serve to slow Dotson's development? ESPN apparently thinks not. The Eagles' inaction here suggests their answer. Related: Eagles 'Doom' Predicted For Saquon as 2025 'Bust' This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 9, 2025, where it first appeared.
New York Times
09-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Falcons 2025 preview: Can this offense produce enough to carry the load?
The Atlanta Falcons haven't made the playoffs since 2017, so as a preview to the 2025 season, we're going to look at the most likely statistical path for a return. We'll be relying on a bunch of statistics but leaning most heavily on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which measures the efficiency of every play run by every team and is widely considered a reliable indicator of team strength. Advertisement In the last decade, playoff teams have finished an average of ninth in overall DVOA, 10th in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA. The Falcons, as currently constructed — $174.7 million of cap commitments on offense versus $123.3 million on defense — likely will have to lean more heavily on their offense than most. So, what are the realistic statistical landing spaces that could get Atlanta back into the postseason? We asked DVOA's creator, Aaron Schatz of FTNFantasy, and he believes that a Falcons team with a top-10 offense could make the playoffs with a defense in the top 20. That leads to two more questions: What are the paths this team could take to reach the top 10 in offensive DVOA and top 20 in defensive DVOA? Today, we'll address the offensive question. The Falcons finished 13th in offensive DVOA last season but are confident that number will improve with more than 99 percent of their offensive production returning and a developing quarterback in second-year starter Michael Penix Jr. time to enjoy some @themikepenix dots 😮💨🎯 — NFL (@NFL) July 7, 2025 The only significant offensive contributor from last season who isn't on the roster heading into training camp is center Drew Dalman, who signed with the Bears as a free agent in the offseason. Most of last year's offensive weight was carried by the running game. The Falcons finished fifth in rushing DVOA last season behind Baltimore, Detroit, Buffalo and Green Bay. They were sixth in expected points added per rush (.06), according to TruMedia. Third-year running back Bijan Robinson believes those numbers should improve. 'Sixth is not good enough,' he said. 'There were five other teams that were better than us. What do we need to do to be the offense that everybody talks about? That everybody mimics?' Advertisement Robinson finished third in the NFL in rushing last season with 1,456 yards on 304 carries, and he's one of only four running backs with more than 2,400 rushing yards in the last two seasons (joining Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams). Robinson's 1,887 yards from scrimmage ranked fourth in the league and were 30 percent of the Falcons offense. Only Saquon Barkley (34.8 percent) had a higher share of his team's offensive output. 'If he touched the ball every play and the defense knew, we'd still make big-time plays. He's that guy,' Penix said. 'He's the guy that when you go to a Little League game, and there's that one kid that never gets tackled, that scores every time, that's him but in the NFL. As many times as we can get the ball in his hands, we're going to do it.' Tyler Allgeier — who Schatz said 'might be the best backup running back in the league' — was 32nd in the league last season with 644 yards on 137 carries, and the Falcons were 12th in yards per carry as a group (4.5). The team has what Robinson referred to as 'outlandish goals' for the rushing totals this season, even after losing 20 percent of its starting offensive line. Ryan Neuzil, a former UDFA out of Appalachian State who is in his fourth year in the league, takes over Dalman's spot in the starting lineup. 'We're excited about Neuz being in charge of the offensive line,' offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said. 'You're seeing a little bit more comfort with him now that he is the guy, and he'll just continue to take those steps.' Neuzil started eight games last season after Dalman suffered an ankle injury. Although Pro Football Focus graded Dalman much higher as a run blocker (79.8 grade for Dalman versus 60.5 for Neuzil), the Falcons' rushing numbers were better across the board with Neuzil in the lineup. Atlanta had a higher rushing success rate (47.7 percent versus 43.2 percent), more yards per carry (4.5 versus 4.2) and a higher EPA per rush (.00 versus minus-.05) in Neuzil's games, according to TruMedia. Outside of Neuzil, every other Falcons offensive lineman was graded 73 or higher in the run game by PFF, paced by Chris Lindstrom, who received the best run-blocking grade in the league (94.6). Bijan Robinson's belief that Atlanta's run game could improve doesn't appear far-fetched considering all that, but it's the passing game where the most dramatic improvement is needed to bring up the overall DVOA number, Schatz said. Atlanta was 15th in passing DVOA last season, with Kirk Cousins starting the first 14 games and Penix starting the final three. With Penix in the lineup, the Falcons were slightly worse in the passing game — 16th in the league in passing EPA (.08 per dropback) behind Cousins and 18th behind Penix (.06) — but they were a top-10 scoring team (27.8 ppg). Advertisement Atlanta's coaching staff is optimistic Penix will make big strides in his second season as a starter, and much of the Falcons' overall success hinges on whether or not they are right. 'The style of play he plays matches our skill guys, and the skill guys love playing football with him,' Zac Robinson said. 'Just looking for all those guys to keep coming together. The guys on the team love him. He walks around with a swagger.' However, the quarterback's small sample size makes his progress difficult to predict statistically, Schatz said. 'We don't know who Michael Penix is,' Schatz said. 'He was kind of good last year. You know who was kind of good in three games last year? Anthony Richardson.' The easiest way for Penix and the passing game to improve is completion percentage. The University of Washington product hit 58 percent of his passes in his three games, which ranked 30th from Week 15 through Week 18. The only starter in the league who was worse than that for the season was the Colts' Richardson (47.7 percent), and Penix's number would have ranked 315th among regular starters in the last 10 years. The Falcons' coaches believe Penix's completion percentage will improve because a full offseason as the starter will allow him to build connections with his receivers. They also acknowledge that he needs to improve his touch on shorter throws. 'He's an aggressive player with an aggressive arm, but sometimes you have to be able to dial it back a little bit,' quarterbacks coach T.J. Yates said. 'It's the process of learning a quarterback and learning how to coach him.' The coaching staff won't ask Penix to curtail his aggressiveness. In fact, it's the trait they are most excited about. Penix led the league in air yards per attempt (10.2) in his three starts. For the season, that number would have ranked second (again, behind only Richardson) last season, and it would be the 15th-most aggressive season in the last 10 years, according to TruMedia. Advertisement 'Mike opens up a different avenue within the offense,' Zac Robinson said. In Penix's three starts, Atlanta was ninth in explosive pass play percentage (14.6 percent) but only 24th in offensive pass success rate (41.4 percent), according to TruMedia, meaning the passing game hit big plays when it hit them but didn't hit them often enough. Penix returns the same starting wide receiver rotation this season, led by fourth-year pro Drake London, whom many in Atlanta expect to have a breakout season. Penix believes London is overlooked among NFL pass catchers. 'He won't be after this year,' the quarterback said. 'I'm not going to talk too much. It'll show.' London was fourth in the league last season with 1,271 receiving yards and 12th in yards per game at 74.8. Darnell Mooney finished 25th in the league with 992 yards. Neuzil's permanent place in the lineup likely won't detract much from Atlanta's pass blocking. The Falcons allowed a 30.8 pressure percentage with Dalman in the lineup and a 33.1 pressure percentage with Neuzil last season, according to TruMedia. Atlanta was 22nd in the league in scoring (22.8 ppg) in its first season, with former Rams assistant Zac Robinson calling the plays. If he and Penix can improve on that number and Penix takes the steps his coaches and teammates believe he can, the top-10 offense that these Falcons likely need seems within their reach. (Photo of Bijan Robinson: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
USA Today
30-06-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Analysts suggests Vikings add one more pass rusher before training camp
The Minnesota Vikings racked up a whopping 49 sacks, which was good enough for the fourth most in the NFL. While they had good sack production, the unit still had some strecthes where they lacked the ability to get the quarterback to the ground. So ESPN's Aaron Schatz floated the idea of the team adding one more pass-rushing piece ahead of training camp. In a recent piece for the Worldwide Leader in Sports, Schatz discussed one move each team should make before training camp. For the Vikings, he suggested they sign former Super Bowl champion Matthew Judon. The veteran linebacker was traded to the Falcons last offseason and had a disappointing 2024 season with the team. Despite that, there is potential for growth, especially in the Vikings' defense. He writes, "The Vikings are set with their starting edge rushers, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. They have 2024 first-round pick Dallas Turner waiting in the wings. And then after that, well ... who is Bo Richter? Answer: He's a second-year undrafted free agent who played 29 defensive snaps last season and is probably currently the No. 4 Edge on the Minnesota depth chart. . .he can get after the passer, and some reps as a backup might really rejuvenate his career." Prior to his disappointing 2024 campaign, Judon had racked up 33 sacks in the last three seasons for the Patriots. Judon would have a lot less responsibility in the Vikings' defensive unit than he would have on the Falcons. He would likely be a part of the rotation and not be playing starting snaps. That should allow him to be more fresher when called upon and perhaps allow him to return to his old form in years past.
USA Today
27-06-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
ESPN proposes one last Dolphins offseason move
ESPN proposed one final offseason move for the Miami Dolphins. ESPN NFL analyst Aaron Schatz writes that the Dolphins should sign veteran free agent wide receiver Keenan Allen. The 6-foot-2, 211-pound receiver is a six-time Pro Bowler and has eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving plateau on six occasions during his 12-year NFL career. Allen was a Pro Bowler as recently as the 2023 season when he caught 108 passes for 1,243 yards with the Los Angeles Chargers. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle give the Dolphins two excellent outside receivers, but there are questions about the slot. Right now, Miami's top slot options are the Washington "not-brothers," two low-round draft picks from a year ago. In 2024, Malik Washington had just 26 catches for 223 yards with no touchdowns, while Tahj Washington missed his entire rookie season with an undisclosed injury. That makes Miami the perfect landing spot for a seasoned veteran slot receiver like Allen. Allen is 33 but still had 70 catches for 744 yards and seven touchdowns in Chicago a season ago. He did poorly in ESPN's receiver tracking metrics last season but still got open, as indicated by his 57 open score. Hill and Waddle would give Allen a ton of room to work with underneath, giving quarterback Tua Tagovailoa a nice security blanket. - Aaron Schatz, ESPN. Another veteran pass-catcher would be a welcome sight for Tagovailoa and Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. Mixing in Allen alongside Hill, Waddle and perhaps tight end Jonnu Smith is exciting to think about. According to Over The Cap, the Miami Dolphins still have $13.7 million in effective cap space ahead of the 2025 NFL season.
