July 4th weather: National Hurricane Center tracks disturbance over Florida

USA Today

5 hours ago

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disturbance over Florida that stretches most of the Gulf coast across the state and into the Atlantic Ocean as far north as off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts that could have an effect on the Fourth of July weekend.
"Towards the end of this week into next weekend, an area of low pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts," the Tropical Weather Outlook from 8 a.m. June 29 states. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it drifts slowly just off the U.S. coastline."
The chance of development remained low, at 20 percent over the next seven days, forecasters said.
However, rain chances are increasing along Florida's Gulf Coast, with some areas expected to see rainfall totals that could reach double digits over the next seven days, according to the National Weather Service. The heaviest rain is expected Thursday, July 3 as the monitored system moves over the state, the National Weather Service office in Ruskin/Tampa Bay said Sunday morning.
In the western Gulf of America, heavy rains were beginning Sunday morning as Tropical Depression Two caused the National Hurricane Center to issue a tropical storm warning for the eastern coast of Mexico. In an 11 a.m. advisory, The National Hurricane Center announced that aircraft data has indicated that the depression turned into Tropical Storm Barry.
The National Hurricane Center was also watching four tropical waves.
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There's been only one named storm in the Atlantic basin so far this season. While in the short term no tropical development is expected by forecasters in the short term − partly due to a wall of Saharan dust blowing by Florida − that could change soon.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., June 29.
Heavy rainfall expected on Florida's Gulf Coast over next seven days
Rain chances are increasing along Florida's Gulf Coast for the next several days, with heavy rainfall contributing to flash flooding at times, according to the National Weather Service regional forecast offices.
Throughout the weather service's Tallahassee region, daily rain chances are over 85 percent through Wednesday, July 2.
Predicted rainfall totals further south on the coast creep up into the double digits through the next seven days, with the heaviest rain expected Thursday, July 3 as the system the National Hurricane Center is watching moves over the state, the weather service office in Ruskin/Tampa Bay said Sunday morning.
Will tropical weather impact Florida and Palm Beach County?
National Hurricane Center forecasters said Sunday, June 29, that looking forward to the Fourth of July week, and weekend, an area of low pressure could develop near or along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts.
Formation chance through 48 hours, low: near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days, low: 20 percent.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida or Palm Beach County?
There's no tropical system threatening Florida at this time.
However, AccuWeather forecasters are warning there is a potential for tropical development in the Gulf or off the southeast coast of the U.S. in early July, the holiday weekend.
'The potential is definitely there off the Southeast Coast or in the Gulf," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email. "The water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development in that area and the wind shear looks to be fairly low overall in that area.'
'We're forecasting a low chance that anything develops at this point, but this time of the year, this is where we would typically see tropical activity spin up in late June and early July, If anything develops over the next two weeks, it will happen close to home.
"There's nothing unusual here. We would typically look close to home for possible tropical development early in the season. If anything develops, it's likely that rainfall would be the primary concern.
'A cold front during the first couple of days of July will come off the southeast coast and stall. The tail of the front will essentially extend across Florida and into the Gulf. If that frontal boundary stalls for a couple of days and we see any convection, that's how we could end up with tropical development next week."
Where is Tropical Storm Barry?
At 2 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 96.6 West.
The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph, with the motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to make landfall and then move inland over eastern Mexico later this afternoon or tonight.
Location: About 50 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico and about 130 miles southeast of Tampico, Mexico
Moving: Northwest or 315 degrees at 12 mph
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph with higher gusts
NOAA Hurricane Center's forecast on what to expect from Tropical Storm Barry
Some slight intensification is possible before the system reaches the coast of eastern Mexico by this evening but rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Barry is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning shortly.
WATER: Seas have increased to 8 to 11 feet and will likely build further through today.
Tropical waves
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Barry. See expected path
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Don't be caught off guard. Tropical activity expected to pick up
'We expect tropical activity to pick up later on in the hurricane season. This very well could be a back-half loaded season," DaSilva said.
Right now, dry air and wind shear are helping keep tropical storms from developing, which isn't unusual for early in the hurricane season, which started June 1.
"The second named storm in the Atlantic basin typically doesn't develop until mid to late July. We are on pace with the historical average. Records show that the first hurricane of the season typically doesn't develop until Aug. 11," DaSilva said.
Predictions issued by NOAA, AccuWeather and Colorado State University all forecast an above-normal hurricane season.
2025 hurricane names
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Showers, thunderstorms could affect Fourth of July plans
"We're forecasting a wet pattern across the Southeast in early July, regardless of any tropical development," DaSilva said.
'Much of Florida and the Southeast will see plenty of showers and thunderstorms during early July, and that could impact outdoor plans for the Fourth of July.
'Northern Florida and the Panhandle will see more rainfall than South Florida in early July.'
Is any Saharan dust approaching Florida?
'There is a big plume of dust coming across the Atlantic right now. We expect more Saharan dust to reach portions of the southern U.S. from South Florida to Texas.
'We could have some Saharan dust high in the sky for the Fourth of July, especially across South Florida.'
'We could see some dirty rain across Florida that can make a mess on your car and other surfaces outside, thanks to the Saharan dust.'
Florida weather radar for June 29, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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