Forecast U-turn: Southwest SA now seen having a very wet midwinter

Daily Maverick

05-06-2025

One key trend that remains largely unchanged from previous forecasts is that across most of South Africa, the winter and spring of 2025 are expected to be warmer than usual. While this will be welcomed by many, it is worrying on a number of fronts.
The South African Weather Service has made a U-turn in its rolling five-month outlook for the southwest and the eastern coastal regions of the country.
From midwinter, the southwest is expected to have above-normal rainfall during its annual wet season, but then things will dry out as winter fades and spring emerges. But the eastern coastal areas are expected to get drenched right through to spring.
This is a marked departure from previous forecasts, which predicted an unseasonably dry winter for these areas.
'During winter and early spring, the areas that receive significant seasonal rainfall are limited to the southwestern parts of the country and the southern and eastern coastal areas,' the Weather Service said in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch that looks five months ahead — in this case from June to October.
'During midwinter the southwest and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, however during late winter and early spring only the eastern coastal areas' expected rainfall remains above normal, with the southwest's outlook changing to below normal rainfall.'
One key trend that remains largely unchanged from previous forecasts is that across most of South Africa, the winter and spring of 2025 are expected to be warmer than usual.
What this means
A mild winter means you may not have to bundle up as per usual and crank up your heating systems. But on the global climate stage, the past decade has been the warmest on record with frightening implications for societies and the environment, and this is in keeping with that worrying trend. Not having to wear a sweater as often as in past winters is not a good sign.
While this will be welcomed by many, it is worrying on a number of fronts — warmer is not better against the backdrop of rapid climate change linked to fossil fuel usage and greenhouse gas emissions.
'The anticipated above-normal rainfall over the southwest and eastern coastal areas during midwinter and late winter and early spring over the eastern coastal areas might not be significant enough to benefit water resources in terms of improving the water levels in reservoirs,' the report said.
'Possible benefits are likely to cancel out due to the anticipated above-normal temperatures, further impacting water levels in areas such as the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga, where a number of settlements are still impacted by the ongoing drought conditions.'
Dam levels in the Western Cape are currently at 57.2%, according to the latest data from the Department of Water Affairs. At this time of the year they are typically lower than other provinces because of regional rainfall patterns, but they will need good rains to top up properly.
This rolling outlook is never set in stone and it could change again next month when it will look ahead to November. DM