Latest news with #SeasonalClimateWatch
Daily Maverick
07-07-2025
- Climate
- Daily Maverick
Weather Watch — heavy rains forecast for SA's flood-prone eastern coastal areas in spring
The remainder of the winter and the upcoming spring are expected to be mild. This is a reflection of the global warming trend linked to fossil-fuel use that is literally burning our fragile planet. The South African Weather Service (Saws) still sees a wetter-than-normal spring for flood-prone coastal areas of the country, while the seasonal rains in the southwest are expected to fade as winter wanes. That is the upshot of Saws' latest monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead – in this case from July to November. 'During late winter and early spring, the southwestern parts of the country are still expected to receive below-normal rainfall. The eastern coastal areas, however, are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during early and mid-spring,' the report said. And while cold fronts have brought a chill to swathes of South Africa of late, overall the rest of the winter and the spring season are expected to be on the warm side. 'Minimum and maximum temperatures are largely expected to be above-normal for the most part during the late winter and spring seasons,' Saws said. What this means for you If you live in the eastern coastal region, beware that floods could be on the cards. Overall, the rest of the winter should be mild and spring is expected to blossom with almost summer-like temperatures. That will be welcomed by many since South Africans don't like the cold as a rule. But it is a reflection of the global warming trend linked to fossil-fuel use that is literally burning our fragile planet. For the southwestern parts of South Africa it is concerning that the rest of the winter is seen drier than usual during that region's annual wet season. This will have implications for water security and dam levels, and on the farming front may reduce yields for the winter wheat crop. It is also a red flag for the wildfires that can scorch the region. Heavier-than-normal spring rains in the eastern coastal areas are also a potential worry given the recent history of flooding in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. But it could bring relief to areas in that region that are still experiencing drought, though that will be offset by warmer-than-normal temperatures. 'The anticipated above-normal rainfall during the early- and mid-spring seasons is unlikely to benefit water reservoirs in the eastern coastal areas (where several settlements are still experiencing moderate drought conditions) due to, among others, the expected above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures, which can result in water losses through the evapotranspiration processes,' the Weather Service said. 'Furthermore, the expected mostly above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures across the country are likely to result in increased demand for cooling during the spring season.' Meanwhile, the global weather pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains firmly in its neutral phase in between El Niño, which usually brings drought to southern Africa, and the La Niña system, which typically heralds good rains in this region. Global forecasters such as the US Climate Prediction Centre currently see a less than 50% chance of La Niña forming by the end of 2025, but at least there is scant prospect of El Niño returning during the upcoming summer months. DM
IOL News
09-06-2025
- Climate
- IOL News
Prepare for winter: South African farmers warned of changing weather patterns
Winter planting begins under uncertain skies as farmers brace for shifting rainfall patterns and rising fire risks across South Africa. The Department of Agriculture has issued a seasonal advisory warning South African farmers to prepare for a winter season marked by shifting rainfall patterns, drying veld, and increased fire risks, even as dam levels remain relatively high across the country. According to the Seasonal Climate Watch issued by the South African Weather Service on June 4, above-normal rainfall is expected in the south-western parts and eastern coastal areas during mid-winter. However, during late winter and early spring, only the eastern coastal areas may still receive above-normal rainfall, while the outlook for the south-western regions shifts to below-normal. In light of this, the Department advises farmers in winter crop regions to proceed carefully. 'Winter crop farmers are advised to wait for sufficient moisture before planting and stay within the normal planting window,' said Moses Rannditsheni, Director of Communication Services. 'In areas where above-normal rainfall is anticipated, it should be noted that not all areas might receive the anticipated above-normal rainfall that is well distributed. Therefore, caution should be exercised.'
Daily Maverick
05-06-2025
- Climate
- Daily Maverick
Forecast U-turn: Southwest SA now seen having a very wet midwinter
One key trend that remains largely unchanged from previous forecasts is that across most of South Africa, the winter and spring of 2025 are expected to be warmer than usual. While this will be welcomed by many, it is worrying on a number of fronts. The South African Weather Service has made a U-turn in its rolling five-month outlook for the southwest and the eastern coastal regions of the country. From midwinter, the southwest is expected to have above-normal rainfall during its annual wet season, but then things will dry out as winter fades and spring emerges. But the eastern coastal areas are expected to get drenched right through to spring. This is a marked departure from previous forecasts, which predicted an unseasonably dry winter for these areas. 'During winter and early spring, the areas that receive significant seasonal rainfall are limited to the southwestern parts of the country and the southern and eastern coastal areas,' the Weather Service said in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch that looks five months ahead — in this case from June to October. 'During midwinter the southwest and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, however during late winter and early spring only the eastern coastal areas' expected rainfall remains above normal, with the southwest's outlook changing to below normal rainfall.' One key trend that remains largely unchanged from previous forecasts is that across most of South Africa, the winter and spring of 2025 are expected to be warmer than usual. What this means A mild winter means you may not have to bundle up as per usual and crank up your heating systems. But on the global climate stage, the past decade has been the warmest on record with frightening implications for societies and the environment, and this is in keeping with that worrying trend. Not having to wear a sweater as often as in past winters is not a good sign. While this will be welcomed by many, it is worrying on a number of fronts — warmer is not better against the backdrop of rapid climate change linked to fossil fuel usage and greenhouse gas emissions. 'The anticipated above-normal rainfall over the southwest and eastern coastal areas during midwinter and late winter and early spring over the eastern coastal areas might not be significant enough to benefit water resources in terms of improving the water levels in reservoirs,' the report said. 'Possible benefits are likely to cancel out due to the anticipated above-normal temperatures, further impacting water levels in areas such as the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga, where a number of settlements are still impacted by the ongoing drought conditions.' Dam levels in the Western Cape are currently at 57.2%, according to the latest data from the Department of Water Affairs. At this time of the year they are typically lower than other provinces because of regional rainfall patterns, but they will need good rains to top up properly. This rolling outlook is never set in stone and it could change again next month when it will look ahead to November. DM
Daily Maverick
05-05-2025
- Climate
- Daily Maverick
Weather Watch — forecast of a dry winter for SA's southwest remains firmly in place
Western Cape dam levels are only at 57.2% – the lowest among South Africa's provinces by a country mile – as the parched prospects for winter descend. The winter rainy season for South Africa's southwest will be more dry than wet, with implications for the region's agriculture including the winter wheat crop and water security. In its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch report, which looks five months ahead – in this case from May to September – the South African Weather Service has maintained its dry outlook for the southwest and extended that prognosis to September. 'As early winter is starting in May-June-July, the focus shifts to the southwestern parts of the country and the southern and eastern coastal areas. Both the southwestern parts and the southern and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive mostly below-normal rainfall early, mid- and late-winter,' the report said. Western Cape dam levels are only at 57.2% – the lowest among South Africa's provinces by a country mile – according to the latest update from the Department of Water and Sanitation, and the province counts on the winter rains to top up its reservoirs. April has been unseasonably wet across much of the interior of South Africa including the Free State and Gauteng. The Vaal Dam's levels are at almost 120%, forcing authorities last week to open 10 of its sluice gates and issue evacuation notices as the Vaal River is pumping. The Katse Dam in Lesotho, which contains much of Gauteng's water supply, is almost 100%. But the Western Cape is high and dry as the parched prospects for winter descend. Mind you, many Gauteng residents are also high and dry and face frequent water cuts, but that is a consequence of state failure rather than Mother Nature. And the temperature outlook across most of the country remains warmer than usual. So expect a relatively mild autumn and winter – a state of affairs that, among other things, should ease demand on the national power grid. What this means for you If you live in the southwest you may want to take shorter showers to conserve water. And the forecast for a mild winter across most of South Africa should reduce the need for Eskom to impose the rolling power cuts known as load shedding. 'Minimum and maximum temperatures are largely expected to be above normal for most parts during the winter season, with the notable exception of the southern coastal areas that are expected to see parts of it be below normal,' the report said. It also noted that 'some parts of Mpumalanga' are expected to have a wetter winter than usual. DM
